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Eighth best, maybe

26 Aug 2007 11:34 am

My old employer's blog has a terrific post on "second best economics":

Suppose that I told you that in the absence of the necessary conditions for teleportation, the next best thing is to forget all about the conditions for teleportation and instead fly at near the speed of light. Would you find this helpful if what you actually had was a Toyota and a half-tank of gas? Many "second-best" policy recommendations are a bit like that: the ideal market is a fantasy, so here is an ideal government to fix things. Obviously, this is not very helpful. If we are going to be hard-headed empiricists on the lookout for real-world imperfections, then we must admit imperfections equitably and not blanch in the face of the often appalling failures of government to operate as intended.

The excerpt really doesn't do it justice. Please read the whole thing.

Comments (16)

Well, yes, it was an interesting blog post. However, the summary it offers of what "second-best theory" actually means seems to imply something different from what McArdle thinks it does. Here's the interesting quote from Lipsey:

This is an important point since much of the literature that is critical of second-best theory assumes that economists know a distortion when they see one and know that the ideal policy is to remove the distortion directly, something that is necessarily welfare-improving only in the imaginary one-distortion world.

Sounds like sense to me. After all, almost every actually existing market is, as a practical matter, always already (as the Marxists would say) distorted in a zillion ways. Taking the discussion on health care we've been having (interminably) on other threads, the US health care market is so unbelievably complex as to be completely warped -- as is every single other health care market in the entire world. What counts as a "distortion"? On what grounds do we argue that removing a distortion would be beneficial?

The blog argues that we ought to base our public policy decisions not on fictive notions of perfect efficiency models, but on proven real-world examples.

as the moral philosophers like to say, "ought implies can"—we are obliged to strive only for the possible. Likewise, a social ideal is worth aspiring to, and worth using as a standard of policy evaluation, only if we can get there from here. Then why should we care whether the conditions for a fantasy of ideal efficiency are present in the real world? The answer is that we shouldn't care. Furthermore, why should we care whether a given policy is "second-best" relative to our fictive efficiency norm? Again, we shouldn't.

Again, turning to our health policy example: we know that universal coverage is possible because every other advanced country has it. We know that large savings on health spending are possible because every other advanced country spends dramatically less than we do, and gets broadly identical or superior results. We have before at least a dozen examples of systems which are demonstrably superior to our own. It would be ridiculous to reject their actually existing examples because of imaginary ideals of perfect theoretical efficiency.

IMHO - I think the cookie example he uses before making the good Toyota analogy is somewhat unfortunate.

There are natural laws that govern our universe. If we do not get the enough understanding about the laws of gravity - we cannot build an airplane to fly safely with. This is very different with a purely cultural creation like a cookie? There are as many cookies as there are cooks.. but it seems that the the laws of gravity apply equally all over the planet?

There are better and worse airplanes. Best, 2nd best, 3rd best for different cargo?

BUT - there is no airplane that does not stick to the laws of nature? This goes by definition? There is a natural threshold where the 1248th best airplane is no airplane at all because it cannot land properly (it might take off and give the impression to be "working" for a long time)....

The point of the 2nd best theory should therefore NOT be that - no matter what your understanding of natural laws (left or right) - you are always seeking an approximation. The point should be that some theories simply do not work in the real world. And that 2nd best only works with a working theory of economics?

For example - there is nothing wrong with claiming that tax benefits are less expensive than direct subsidies. There is nothing wrong with claiming that eg agricultural subsidies (as deployed in the US and EU) are 3rd best at best? I have not met an economist (left or right) who has claimed otherwise - unless he has a special and misunderstood "infinity" with farmers ? So why do we do it? Forget 2nd best - forget left or right - why do we apply 3rd best so often? Well - economics is an organic entity and not a rational or mechanical one as we all know by now? It is evolutionary, emotional, psychological laws that govern us and not physical - and to think in these terms is more difficult to us than the simple, linear machine? But that does not mean that economics is not a natural science - quite the contrary. It is as much a B.Sc. and not a B.A. as is biology, ecology and evolution!

There's a well-known concept in computer science called the greedy algorithm, which solves a problem by breaking it down into pieces and finding the "best" solution for each piece. The idea is that the combination of all the best answers to the subproblems will yield the best answer to the overall problem -- imagine maximizing the weight of a shipment by putting in the heaviest items available.

Unfortunately, the greedy algorithm only works on a very specific category of problems. There's an entire class of problems (called NP-complete), whose defining characteristic is that there is (probably) no better way to solve them than to model all the possible solutions, and decide which one is best. A chess game is a good informal example -- it's a bad strategy to always choose the move that results in the most immediate advantage, and you'll lose to the player who is willing to sacrifice pieces.

Colloquially, any problem where it's necessary to forego short-term gain for long-term optimization probably isn't going to respond well to a greedy approach. If a problem doesn't exhibit greedy characteristics, there's no "second best" solution to it, because a second best solution is just a greedy approach that hasn't finished playing itself out.

It seems fairly self-evident that economics is not a greedy problem. If that's true, then there is some solid mathematical support to the second-best theory.

brooksfoe wrote:Again, turning to our health policy example: we know that universal coverage is possible because every other advanced country has it. We know that large savings on health spending are possible because every other advanced country spends dramatically less than we do, and gets broadly identical or superior results. We have before at least a dozen examples of systems which are demonstrably superior to our own. It would be ridiculous to reject their actually existing examples because of imaginary ideals of perfect theoretical efficiency.

And if Farmer John is having problems raising a successful grain crop, is it fair to claim that he shuld be able to do so on the basis that Farmer Bob and Farmer Bill are able to raise good grain crops, when in fact Bob and Bill are raising feed corn outside of Kearney, Nebraska and John happens to be planting rye five miles south of Flagstaff?

Context matters. Examples of other "advanced nations" are only directly relevant if the population dynamics, geographic size, climate, social-political culture, statistical comparative methodologies, etc. are all comparable AND the healthcare spending in one of the advanced nations doesn't happen to be a meaningful variable in the effectiveness of all the others.

Without that, you have interesting case studies but you by no means have confirmed models for carrying the results of the others out of their respective sandboxes and into a very large and diverse playground that can't even achieve wild models of success in the social healthcare programs it has already got.

I see you still haven't cleared up the question of your "deeply proletarian roots'. Left "as is", you seem to say that while you are a child of privilege, born and brought up on the Upper West Side, you have a claim to "deeply proletarian" roots because your parents were not always well off. This is absurd. Now, Megan, you can't duck this, since you've made this claim while saying your "born and raised" on the Upper West Side. Either you clear this up, or we'll have to go to your employers for an answer. Up to you.

"as the moral philosophers like to say, "ought implies can"—we are obliged to strive only for the possible. Likewise, a social ideal is worth aspiring to, and worth using as a standard of policy evaluation, only if we can get there from here. Then why should we care whether the conditions for a fantasy of ideal efficiency are present in the real world? The answer is that we shouldn't care. Furthermore, why should we care whether a given policy is "second-best" relative to our fictive efficiency norm? Again, we shouldn't."

I'm pretty sure that this paragraph uses the term "ideal" in two incompatible senses. The reason moral philosophers say "ought implies can" is that it gives a falsification test for normative statements - e.g. Normative statement X is true if and only if necessary conditions ABC are met [or, equivalently, if X then ABC.]. [Which is neat because normative statements are generally held, after Hume, not to be susceptible to empirical verification - e.g. they can be falsified, but not verified.]

Please correct me if I'm wrong, but "ideal efficiency" in economics is supposed to be a non-normative concept. Whether something is more or less "ideal" is determined by reference to some mathematical relationship not susceptible to falsification. E.g. Wikipedia tells me "the efficiency ratio of a business is expenses as a percentage of revenue (expenses / revenue)." That is, it's a definition of efficiency, not an ideal of efficiency. This is why it doesn't matter whether the material conditions for ideal efficiency are present in the real world - there are no material conditions, it's a mathematical relationship help to be true a priori. Given that, it makes perfect sense to rank policy options according to how closely they approximate this ideal state.

The theory of the second best is summed up in the article "when it comes to the theoretical conditions for an optimal allocation of resources, the absence of any of the jointly necessary conditions does not imply that the next-best allocation is secured by the presence of all the other conditions. Rather, the second-best scenario may require that other of the necessary conditions for optimality also be absent—maybe even all of them." E.g. the solutions to a given economic problem aren't necessarily additive, they're combinatorial.

And that has absolutely no relationship to conclusion of the article: "The methodological insight at the heart of the theory of the second-best is that in a complex world we must rely on well-confirmed generalizations and an artful application of economic sense, not high theory, when designing and evaluating policy." I'm pretty sure the author got there by conflating two senses of "ideal." But actually, the theory of the second best means nothing of the sort: in a complex world one can rely on high theory, so long as that theory is of a level of complexity sufficient to the problems posed. Or, alternately, one can rely on a relatively complexity poor theory and correct with empirically derived fixes in particular cases. But which of those alternatives is to be preferred has nothing in any way to do with the theory of the second best, as both alternatives could be sufficient to finding combinatorial solutions to economics problems.

Fair enough, but I think this "Second Best" line of argument mischaracterizes the nature of political-economic debate.

Suppose the CEO of Paramount Studios devised a moral argument, loosely based on "ideal market" theories, that we should eliminate the estate tax. What incentive does Scotty have to keep beaming up Captain Kirk, if he can't expect to leave his beachfront condo on Rigel-7 to his children?

Well the whole argument, depending as it does on the reality of Star Trek, is patently ridiculous. Surely, one should be able to defend the estate tax without having to explain why it really WON'T leave Captain Kirk stranded on the Planet of Talking Sponges and Pipe Cleaners.

Phil said


I see you still haven't cleared up the question of your "deeply proletarian roots".


Good point, Phil. I suspect that Megan is really a self-hating child of petty-bourgeoisie or bourgeoisie parents, trying desperately to assume the mantle of working-class respectability.

I suspect a few healthy self-criticism sessions followed by a written confession and repudiation of counter-revolutionary thoughts will help clear the air and allow Megan to take her rightful albeit tainted position in the class struggle.

Kind of a confusing goulash of comments on this thread:

I look at what Megan said in her post to introduce the second best economics entry, but can't come up with any cogent statement of what she thinks of the model. I guess i'm just a little dense, unlike others who seem to be able to see her connection.

...and what is this foray by Kevin and Phil into Megan's background? Other than trying to turn an economics discussion into a personal attack on her, I'm not sure what the difference between having a deeply proletarian background versus being raised with bourgeois parents?

And if the reader doesn't get his answer 'right now' he's going to kick and scream and go to the employer?...and then what? I can't imagine having a background in either camp is going to make a whit of difference to people, like myself, who find her writing interesting and worth the read. The quality of the writing takes precedence over the vehemence of the spiteful barbs.

I know you play an economist, but you have a business degree, right?

So the logic of this post is this: there is an inherent problem in our system. We have come up with a fix. The fix has a flaw. Sooo.....let's ignore the inherent problem with the system.

No, duh. You try to fix the flaw, *or* you work on a *better* way to fix the inherent problem. At minimum, you have to ask yourself (for temporary purposes) which is more problematic - the problem or the flaw.

I don't think any of this, oddly, is confusing to proponents of "second best economics" - hence the name.

Well, to each his/her own. I actually don't like this blog at all, which gives me some pause as to why I keep coming back to it. It's basically an unhealthy obsession: I find McArdle quite wrong, most of the time, and I keep scratching the itch to respond to her. For similar reasons, I posted a lot on that horrible "Proteinwisdom" blog for a while last year.

Also, I'm just curious to find out why it is that this generation of kids about a decade younger than me seem to have some weird kind of respect for libertarianism, a philosophy I find about as congenial as theocratic fundamentalism. Blame it on Nozick?

The whole "proler-than-thou" spat is ridiculous, but it is somewhat interesting that people place such a premium on working-class authenticity. BTW, responding to Kevin: self-criticism sessions get a bum rap. They can be a really good idea. I believe we in the West call it "group therapy".

Megan,

Your posts have really stepped up a notch or two since you started with the Atlantic. And that's from a high bar to begin with. Very nicely done!

Also, I'm just curious to find out why it is that this generation of kids about a decade younger than me seem to have some weird kind of respect for libertarianism
Is it really so hard to understand why, in the Bush era, a philosophy of reducing the power of the federal government looks attractive?

Thanks to Andrew S for leading me to you. Keep it up Ms. Megan. You have a distinctive voice that I understand (but don't always agree with).

JasonC: okay, you have a point there. In fact, I think this is a powerful explanation of the phenomenon. If you're too young to remember the devastatingly stupid role libertarian ideas played in the 1990s, you might find them more congenial as a response to Bush-era power grabs. But that would mean ignoring the role of libertarian ideas in the central economic story of the Bush years: the transfer of vast amounts of wealth from the middle class to the ultra-rich, and the bankrupting of various elements of the national social and physical infrastructure.

Good site! I'll stay reading! Keep improving!