I posted yesterday on the seasonality of casualty trends. An anonymous research professor argues that these are military casualties, and that the civilian casualties show no such trend:
It's not crazy to wonder if the reduction in civilian deaths associated with the troop surge reflects nothing more than a seasonal trend (which is what Drum is concerned about). Iraq Coalition Casualty Count has numbers dating back to March of 2005. Thus, we have civilian casualty counts for the summers of 2005, 2006 and 2007. If their numbers are reliable (and I have repeatedly shown that they are), and if they show that civilian casualties tend to decrease in the summer months compared to the preceding months, then one should take heed of Drum's bottom line:Bottom line: you should be skeptical of any claims about reductions in violence unless they take seasonality into account. So far, though, I haven't seen any credible claims of reduced violence that even mention seasonality, let alone adjust for it. That should tell you something.
I completely agree. If casualties always drop in the summer, and if they drop by an amount that is roughly proportional to the amount that they have decreased during the troop surge, then one would have to conclude that the surge has not had an appreciable effect on casualties.On the other hand, if civilian casualties (unlike military casualties) typically increase in the summer, and if they have decreased only in the summer of 2007 (i.e., during the troop surge), then one would have to conclude that the effectiveness of the troop surge is even greater than it appears to be (if, that is, you follow Drum's suggestion). Let's inquire into the matter because we have the data, and we've had it for a long time.
Hm. The data the guy's relying on is sketchy. That is, the site he takes it from bears this disclaimer:
On top of that, it's hard to see how the probable explanation for the seasonal drop in military casualties in the summer (it's too hot to fight) wouldn't also apply to civilian casualties. If there were good data saying it didn't, that'd be one thing, but a compilation of 'deaths reported by news agencies' really doesn't appear to qualify. Is there some reason I'm missing that the ICCC's data should be regarded as reliable enough to figure out trends from?
Civilian casualty numbers are quite iffy unlike the military ones, for which we have very good data.
What he's saying is that the military casualties don't drop because of the heat; they drop because the insurgents are saving up for Ramadan.
The question you'd want to know is not whether the counts are complete, but whether they vary in line with the general civilian casualty figures.
Right, but I don't see any way of figuring that out. I clicked around the guy's site a bit, and saw him arguing that it didn't matter if the ICC count was an undercount so long as it was a consistent undercount. He's right that it wouldn't matter under those circumstances, but I don't see what basis he has for assuming it.
What he's saying is that the military casualties don't drop because of the heat; they drop because the insurgents are saving up for Ramadan.
Huh. Given that Ramadan moves through the solar calendar (about a week or so every year?) I suppose that could be checked by seeing if seasonal patterns of violence track the weather or Ramadan. You'd probably need a longer baseline than we have, but if we're still in country a couple years from now, it'd be easy to answer.
Too hot to blow yourself up in July & August? I understand the need to dispute any post-surge reduction in violence, but let's can seasonality; that dog won't hunt, and will probably come back to bite us.
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