I rarely pay attention to claims that "casualties in Iraq are down this month" because anyone who's followed the place even cursorily knows that they're remarkably cyclical, peaking each year right around Ramadan. (And don't get me started on the people who wrote that the peak in October 2006 was some sort of attempt to influence the American election.) But I didn't know why:
August 31, Juan Cole was shrill about administration and media statements that GI deaths in Iraq were down for the year. His point was that temperatures get to 120 degrees, so summer means low combat. He produced a table contrasting 2006 with 2007 by month: deaths are higher in 2007 than 2006. He asked for a visual display and many responded. I'm posting mine here.But this is just part of a pattern of communicating, where true facts are presented within a limited context, so that the resulting asymmetry of information creates a false impression. Most of us don't know that Iraq temperatures reach 120 degrees in July so that physical activity like combat is down. On the other hand, if an official announced that lowland US snow fall in July was the lowest it's been all year -- duh. The difference is that here in the US we all know about July snow fall, so there's no asymmetry.
But as the author points out, many of the administration and military folks making those sorts of claims do know this (or at least, I certainly hope they do; if they don't, we're in worse trouble than I thought). They nonetheless produce meaningless claims about how casualties have fallen.
They know, that's what makes it so sad. Good morning Megan!
It plays well to the lazy. Earlier in the war, at the start, in March '003, the weather in Iraq, then ~70F, was widely reported, by the time it was consistantly triple digits, it, too, was no more.
Relegated to:
http://www.wunderground.com/global/stations/40650.html
btw, nice link~
We call this practice "bvllsh;t."
Does that pass the posting guidelines?
You can't understand the first thing about politics and human behavior without a solid grounding in geography, including climate patterns, which makes it frustrating that so many otherwise well educated people discount their ignorance of the topic as trivial. A lot of punditry would improve if the pundits cracked an atlas or two before opining on an issue.
Wait just one darn minute here: Are you saying that we're being lied to about Iraq?!?
Finally a Will Allen post I can agree with.
The number of casualties is only one of many statistics. You also have to look at the pattern, the type and number of attacks, the locations, who is making them, etc... If you want to know what's going on, all of the above and more is important to know. The military and government report much more than just the numbers. I expect that the media likes to report just the numbers because they are quick and easy. Obviously, individuals on both sides of the debate will report what they think supports their agenda...
I've read and heard reports that describe the progress in some detail, giving a lot more than just numbers of casualties. The information is out there and it's not being hidden.
Juan Cole is hardly an objective reporter himself...
EI
Juan Cole is hardly an objective reporter himself...
Of all the vaguely pejorative accusations that one can make, the accusation of not being objective has to be the most meaningless since it's true of everyone but God.
There's a big difference between "objective" and "subjective." "Not being objective" is certainly not meaningless, but it IS a very imprecise phrase.
Juan Cole is a very subjective reporter.
This reminds me of a Monty Python skit where a man delivers a report to a meeting of businessmen. He makes two points. The first is that humans are born without souls but develop them over time through a process of meditation and introspection. Unfortunately, people get distracted from this process by unimportant things. The second is that people aren't wearing enough hats. The others at the meeting immediately start asking him about the hats...
EI
Most of us don't know that Iraq temperatures reach 120 degrees in July
Is this actually true of anyone who pays the slightest attention to Iraq? News reports I see commonly include this information.
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Check out the video they have on the page.
Cheers
Jacob Roder
Want to start your private office arms race right now?
I just got my own USB rocket launcher :-) Awsome thing.
Plug into your computer and you got a remote controlled office missile launcher with 360 degrees horizontal and 45 degree vertival rotation with a range of more than 6 meters - which gives you a coverage of 113 square meters round your workplace.
You can get the gadget here: http://tinyurl.com/2qul3c
Check out the video they have on the page.
Cheers
Marko Fando
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Thanks for very interesting article. btw. I really enjoyed reading all of your posts. It’s interesting to read ideas, and observations from someone else’s point of view… makes you think more.
So please keep up the great work. Greetings.