Osama Bin Laden is starting to remind me of my college boyfriend, whose brooding anger at the white male bourgeois power structure quickly disintegrated into anger at the non-Scott power structure. Since this was, as you can imagine, quite large, it often led to do things that weren't, strictly speaking, a very good idea. I didn't need behavioral economics to tell me that people don't always act in their rational self-interest.
Now Osama has declared war on the government of Pervez Musharraf in the run up to the elections. This would make sense if Pakistan had any sort of reputation for being the sort of stable and open representative democracy whose government could be ousted by grand emotional proclamations. But it seems rather mad in the current circumstances.
Pakistan has been, at best, a fickle ally of the United States, though it's hard to know how much to blame Musharraf for this; he isn't actually in control of the bits of his government that seem to be helping Al-Qaeda in the tribal areas. But why would Osama do this? Previously, he had a fairly stable arrangement; Musharraf couldn't root him out of the tribal areas for various military and political reasons, and Osama couldn't bring on the Caliphate just yet. But last time I looked, the Caliphate didn't seem terribly imminent. Meanwhile, he has just given Pervez Musharraf and any waverers in his government a much stronger incentive to find Osama and his merry band of cave-dwelling madmen.
This is the kind of overreach that has caused every government that has ever offered him shelter to ultimately kick him out, except for Afghanistan, which didn't have much of a government. Even so, he went and found another government to kick him out. And where will he go this time? He's running out of lawless quasi-states to hide in.
Previously, he had a fairly stable arrangement; Musharraf couldn't root him out of the tribal areas for various military and political reasons, and Osama couldn't bring on the Caliphate just yet.
This was not some kind of detente, it represented - and currently represents - the inability of a central government to do anything about this area of the country. I don't see why this changes now. The difference is that Osama's opinion is on video instead of simply obvious.
funk your ass
Or, Osama is no longer hiding in Pakistan so it doesn't matter if he ticks off Musharraf.
A S. Waziristan tribe, probably friendly to Al Qaeda but with their own agenda took 240 Pakistani soldiers prisoner. This forces things. When this crisis is resolved, the Government will probably be on much better or much worse relations with the tribes of Waziristan. If those relations improve, it would be bad for Al Qaeda. Bin Laden wants the crisis to be resolved violently. Pushing the Pakistani government into a show of strength is probably his plan.
Your college boyfriend comes in for a lot of bashing on your blogs. He must have been a really interesting guy.
Pakistan is experiencing some political upheaval at the moment, so perhaps this is simply throwing his hat in the ring.
Let me just remind you that President Bush is the root cause of this. The world will be much peaceful if we get rid of the biggest terrorist threat around ; The President of the United States. He's the real Osama Bin Laden.
Wow you've really got your finger on the pulse of liberal America there Hussain.
Njorl:
Pushing the Pakistani government into a show of strength is probably his plan.
Maybe. Just as likely (though I have no special insight into internal Pakistan politics), it encourages fence-sitting elements in Pakistan's government to support a crackdown on al Qaeda and its supporters, thus strengthening Musharraf.
Hussain wrote: Let me just remind you that President Bush is the root cause of this. The world will be much peaceful if we get rid of the biggest terrorist threat around ; The President of the United States. He's the real Osama Bin Laden.
Oh, sorry -- this is Asymmetrical Information. The rehearsal stage for the next Osama Night Live! direct-to-video performance is actually down the hall. You can't miss it; the initials "D.U." appear on the door and there's usually a continous drone of petulant whining. Also, be careful what you drink down there -- it may look like beer, but usually it's vinegar mingled with some sort of unidentified yellow substance.
Yep, Bush is the cause of it all. The Beirut bombings over 20 years ago, the first Trade Center bombing attempt, the Cole...yep, maybe Bush was thinking of being President then, so it forced the hand of the terrorists to shake the nitro.
Lorenzo, I wish it were the simple and straightforward. The Wazis and the Urbanized Pakis barely operate on a wavelength that allows just a little communication. The tribes have their own hallowed ways about themselves that are all but inscrutable for most of the Pakis, let alone us, more removed Westerners.
It would be nice to be called in to be able to perform a 'Mongol Party' on the tribe areas, and turn the surface of the rocks a nice shade of grayish black for a decade or so. With humanitarian removal of 'friendly tribes' first, most certainly.
So, is Osama still alive then, or are these pre-recorded?
Huh?
He declared war against an extraordinarily unpopular leader amongst Pakistani Islamists. Musharraf is unlikely to be able to do anything about a man in a cave in Waziristan, just as he was impotent to punish LeT and JeM leaders who criticized the government while in Punjab and Karachi.
The party Islamists of Pakistan probably realize their alliance with Musharraf became a liability as Musharraf's support plummeted, and find it politically wise to make a clear distinction. As Pakistan's political situation develops, there is a very good chance Osama will outlast a tottering Musharraf regime, and he would be wise to get his regime criticism bonafides before this happened.
He may be a madman, but this, in it of itself, was not an irrational political calculation.
You might be absolutely correct, but developing a boyfriend analogy may not capture the nuance and calculations of a very complicated situation.
Does Megan's college ex-boyfriend also have a blog so that we can read about her past foolishness too?
lorenzo writes: "Just as likely (though I have no special insight into internal Pakistan politics), it encourages fence-sitting elements in Pakistan's government to support a crackdown on al Qaeda and its supporters, thus strengthening Musharraf."
Which makes me think it's all theater. Musharraf wins again, and there's some fake action against al Qaeda, and in the end bin Laden is still safe in his enclave and they all get what they really want.
This would make sense if Pakistan had any sort of reputation for being the sort of stable and open representative democracy whose government could be ousted by grand emotional proclamations.
See, this is the kind of thing that should make you more sympathetic to Jon Chait's slip of the tongue about how to meaningfully assess revenue growth. I agree with your overall point that Osama is doing something weird here. But the idea that it would have made more sense to declare war on Pakistan if Pakistan were a stable, open representative democracy is ludicrously wrongheaded, and I'm sure if you subjected it to a moment's thought you'd realize that. Terrorist organizations which openly declare war on representative democracies dramatically raise those democracies' eagerness to invest in combating and killing the terrorist organizations, and harden the democracies' opposition to the terrorists' political claims. See Chechen terrorism in Moscow and Dagestan (back when Russia was a democracy); Islamic/Kashmiri terrorism against India; Palestinian terrorism against Israel; 9/11 -- ad liberandum. In fact, it is only against a broadly unpopular non-representative semi-dictatorship like the Musharraf regime in Pakistan or Mubarak in Egypt that such terrorist declarations have a chance of significantly undermining confidence in the regime.
That said, I still think this is a stupid thing for Osama to try. So, like Chait, your point is correct, but one of the supporting arguments you're making is poorly thought out. That doesn't lead me to feel that in general you are a person who cannot be trusted when you discuss democracy or security issues; that judgment would have to be based on a broader look at where you're coming from.
Chait, man, Osama is untouchable in his hideout's redoubt. In the past, he has shown to have quite a bit of support within Pakistan proper, let alone in their Wild West.
Before someone with more popularity gets into power there (Benazir comes to mind), he'd like to shake things up a bit and encourage the Mullahs to spread the word that females in power is a BIG no no in the Islamic world. Pakistan is not particularly stable, and if they can have the right general get into power, they can have the same kind of transition that's taking place in Myanmar (weeding out the non-Islamic types).
There's really very little down side for him, since he isn't in a position to lose very much, if he does lose. He'll just slip into a different country's tribal area, would be my guess, at least for the short term.
please visit www.gabrielchristou.blogspot.com
You will see photos of WHO and WHERE Bin Laden and his networks are.
PLEASE ALSO FORWARD IT TO THE FBI
gavriild@gmail.com
> starting to remind me of my college boyfriend
Probably time to let that go, unless you've got some cute stories .... the explanatory power of THAT would be useful only to yourself (and possibly any subsequent girlfriends of his that are readers of your blog).
But I thought that Obama is actually running for president in the US now that he has shaved his beard??
Either way - Musharraf is the most criticised leader in the world after Bush? He gets critique for not being democratic enough from the West and he gets the opposite from Islamists like Osama. This has been going on since many years in Pakistan and is actually nothing new?
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