From Eliezer Yudkowsky:
On September 26th, 1983, Lieutenant Colonel Stanislav Yevgrafovich Petrov was the officer on duty when the warning system reported a US missile launch. Petrov kept calm, suspecting a computer error.Then the system reported another US missile launch.
And another, and another, and another.
What had actually happened, investigators later determined, was sunlight on high-altitude clouds aligning with the satellite view on a US missile base.
In the command post there were beeping signals, flashing lights, and officers screaming at people to remain calm. According to several accounts I've read, there was a large flashing screen from the automated computer system saying simply "START" (presumably in Russian). Afterward, when investigators asked Petrov why he hadn't written everything down in the logbook, Petrov replied,"Because I had a phone in one hand and the intercom in the other, and I don't have a third hand."
The policy of the Soviet Union called for launch on warning. The Soviet Union's land radar could not detect missiles over the horizon, and waiting for positive identification would limit the response time to minutes. Petrov's report would be relayed to his military superiors, who would decide whether to start a nuclear war.
Petrov decided that, all else being equal, he would prefer not to destroy the world. He sent messages declaring the launch detection a false alarm, based solely on his personal belief that the US did not seem likely to start an attack using only five missiles.
Petrov was first congratulated, then extensively interrogated, then reprimanded for failing to follow procedure. He resigned in poor health from the military several months later. According to Wikipedia, he is spending his retirement in relative poverty in the town of Fryazino, on a pension of $200/month. In 2004, the Association of World Citizens gave Petrov a trophy and $1000. There is also a movie scheduled for release in 2008, entitled The Red Button and the Man Who Saved the World.
Maybe someday, the names of people who decide not to start nuclear wars will be as well known as the name of Britney Spears. Looking forward to such a time, when humankind has grown a little wiser, let us celebrate, in this moment, Petrov Day.
Call me crass and money-grubbing, but why isn't there an honorarium fund one could donate to? It seems like the world ought to be able to do a bit better than $200 a month.
"Call me crass and money-grubbing, but why isn't there an honorarium fund one could donate to? "
Anybody who would call you "crass & money-grubbing" for that sentiment, is an Idiot.
That was my thought right after I read: " the Association of World Citizens gave Petrov a trophy and $1000. "
They might as well have given the dude a case of Vodka, a carton of Marlboros, and a kick in the shins.
It's really a Co. like V/MC/Amex that is missing the marketing opportunity-- the vaunted "cash back" could be funneled from any number of cardholders to a plethora of potential recipients.
Sounds better, to me, another "Magic Moment" commercial..
If five American missiles hit the Soviets before they counterattacked, and before a wider American launch, both America and the Soviet Union would be destroyed, but the Soviet rubble would have been in slightly poorer condition than if the counterattack were immediate. If a Soviet attack was launched based on a mistake, both countries would be destroyed. Ideal decisionmaking would have depended on the relative value assigned to the various outcomes. The actions of Petrov's superiors imply that they placed a very low present value on the Soviet Union at the time.
Good story.. But I am sure Mr Petrov does not get less than any other retired soldier? And the fact that he has saved the world is hopefully worth more to him than money?
It would be interesting to ask Mr Petrov - if in retrospect - he had rather won the lottery than saved the world? Obviously this is a rhetorical question - because he would not be alive to enjoy the lottery in case he had not saved us AND himself?
While in school, I used to wonder why we all know of Alexander the Great, Nero, Caesar, Attila, Napoleon, Hitler, Stalin, etc but not of say Solon...
I mean, really - ask a kid from university who Solon was and what he is famous for and they will tell you that Pizza is an all-American dish from Brooklyn? whateva... I have asked Harvard LLMs whose building was named after Solon... silence! You are in good company Mr Petrov!
I agree that there should be some sort of fund, etc. MEH's idea is particularly good.
Mr. Petrov's example is particularly compelling and famous. Are there similar examples for US strategic forces? I'd say yes, but you'd think those stories would have come out by now. I have a somewhat difficult time believing he was the only one.
Try googling "I'm not starting the Third World War for you"
Dearieme:
Your example is interesting, but I was looking for strategic forces.
What a fascinating post.
There is one other well-known example from the same year that brought us close to the brink. It was a NATO exercise known as Able Archer 83, which was viewed as a routine operation by Washington. The Soviet leadership saw it as provocation and put their forces on high alert.
While most of his staff didn't take the potential threat too seriously there is evidence that it hastened Reagan towards rapprochement. He wrote:
In the context of that sort of paranoia, Petrov's actions are all the more laudable.
That sort of "paranoia" wasn't unique to the Soviets. Even though 99% of Americans thought that starting a nuclear war was obviously just plain nuts for either side, we didn't quite trust the Russians to be sane - and that other 1%, the ones that thought a nuclear war could be won, included some defense planners and others high in the government.
What most people don’t know is that this happened several times on our side. I lived near a BMEWs radar system that detected a Soviet “attack” on Oct 5th, 1960. Later I interviewed an engineer who worked there (and described the false alarm as harrowing). The Soviet “attack” was actually just the moon rising over Norway. See NORAD's Canadian Deputy Commander, Roy Slemon, A Nuclear Hero and Nuclear Apocalypse Near Misses. The Jan 25, 1995 incident was particularly scary for the Russians, because the rocket (fired for research purposes) launch was just minutes from Moscow, giving them no time to determine if a war had started or not. Note that we had notified the Russians in advance of the impending launch. However, the information had not been disseminated.
"Call me crass and money-grubbing, but why isn't there an honorarium fund one could donate to?"
You could start one, right?
How do we nominate this guy for the Noble Peace prize?
In current dollars and the rate of inflation in Russia the last 15 years, a more appropriate retirement amount should be more like $1500 per month.
This is a man who went against Soviet regulations, and no matter the event and result, the biggest failure in the eyes of the leaders was the fact that he Went Against The Rules. They could use a strong branch of anarchists back in that country.
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Keep a good work man!
Keep a good work man!
IF PETROV PRESSED THE BUTTON, NUCLEAR WAR! NUCLEAR WINTER! EVERYONE WOULD GET CANCER AND DIE!