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Counting carbon

01 Oct 2007 08:53 am

A number of years ago, I was discussing rent control with someone who had managed to snag a government-subsidized co-op. "But you have to understand," he said earnestly, in response to my eminently reasonable economic arguments, "If it weren't for rent control, someone like me couldn't afford to live in Manhattan."

My response, though I never said it out loud, was a puzzled "So what?" Living in Manhattan is not a civil right. It's ludicrous to think that we should construct an elaborate regulatory system that degrades the housing stock and helps push the vacancy rate down to 2%, all so that averagely paid government workers can afford a two bedroom apartment near Lincoln Center. If you want to live in Manhattan, you should prepare yourself for a job that will pay you enough to do so. Or you can do what I did, and cram yourself into 400 square feet of cave-like space on the first floor of a building where the hot water supply ranges from temperamental to nonexistent. But the idea that the government has a duty to reallocate the very limited supply of attractively located Manhattan apartments to . . . well, to the kind of people who know the guy who allocates the supply of attractively located Manhattan apartments . . . seems so transparently awful that I was struck dumb.

My conservative readers are no doubt nodding along in glee. But here's the thing: how come so many of you are complaining that, in the event of a heavy carbon tax, it would suddenly become less affordable to live in Kansas, or the suburbs?

I don't see it as the government's job to enable you to live in Kansas, or a big house on a half-acre lot in the leafy suburbs, any more than it is the government's job to enable you to live on 67th & Broadway. The fact that these things are very desirable, even desirable to a majority of the country, doesn't mean that the government should be in the business of subsidizing your desires through things like road construction. The majority of the country would probably also like a Manhattan apartment with a river view for $500 a month.

I don't have any objection to your getting those things either; I don't have the urban snob's feeling of moral superiority to people who have chosen grass and trees over pavement and nightlife. I too, enjoy sitting in the yard on a sunny day watching the children run hither and yon; it doesn't surprise me that many people have voted with their feet.

However, if getting you that big house in the leafy suburbs requires imposing heavy costs on other people--either directly through taxes, or indirectly through negative externalities--then no, I do not think you should have that house, no matter how much you like it. And right now, people who live in those houses are dumping a whole lot more carbon into the air than people who live in denser housing. The heat loss on a large detached house means you waste a lot more carbon keeping it warm in the winter, and cool in the summer, particularly if you buy coal-fired electricity. The greater distance between you and your electric power source means greater transmission losses. And, of course, you have to drive everywhere, since your house is clustered too loosely to make public transit effective. Transportation accounts for about 35% of US carbon emissions, and 2/3 of that comes from cars and light trucks. The warming from that carbon seems to pose an unacceptably high risk of fouling up the only climate we have.

To the people who said "But I thought you were a libertarian!", this sort of negative externality is exactly what a libertarian government is supposed to deal with. If your activity imposes heavy costs on your neighbors, and there's no possibility of a Coasean bargain, then the commons and free rider problems pose a pretty clear argument for government intervention. Just as it is clearly within the scope of government action to prevent a factory from dumping cyanide into the water table, it seems well within the scope of libertarian theory to say that individuals should not be permitted to poison a commons for which we have so far been unable to establish property rights. As far as I'm concerned, the open questions are: what is the extent of the likely damage, how much should we do to prevent unlikely but catastrophic scenarios, and what are the utilitarian costs to the future of reducing carbon output now. The open questions are not: is anthropogenic global warming occurring; or, is it morally all right to emit huge amounts of carbon that might destroy the planet?

Mind you, I also find the environmental movement sadly lacking here. Any question as to the physical or political feasibility of catering to the most extreme scenarios, much less the actual desirability of doing so, is too often met with accusations that you are a selfish bastard who hates the planet. Any suggestion that there may be no easy and cost-effective way to reduce emissions earns anger and an exasperated "Well, what do you plan to do about it?" as if to state a problem were also to imply that there must be a solution. And a shocking number of fellow travelers on the left do so little to reduce their own carbon emissions that it might as well be nothing, on the grounds that it's irrelevant until we get collective action--and then denounce me for pointing out that exactly the same logic applies to leaving China and India out of any global emissions trading regime. And almost any environmentalist living in an urban area is all too willing to use their environmental beliefs for a fine bit of class warfare, demanding that we truncheon suburbanites and red-staters into dense urban housing. Frankly, there are few public debates so thoroughly dominated by emotion--and not particularly lovely emotion--masquerading as logic.

I don't care how we reduce emissions. If nuclear power and hybrid vehicles can maintain the lifestyles of suburbanites and Kansans, I will be perfectly happy. The moral question is whether or not you reduce the carbon output, not how you achieve the reductions. And since it seems obvious to me that politically, most of the country will not go along unless you can find a solution that does not involve forcing them all to move to San Francisco, environmentalists would do better to focus on alternatives that conservatives might, at least grudgingly, come to like.

Obviously, since I already live a fairly low carbon lifestyle, I am vulnerable to charges that I favor things that hurt others more than myself. But I don't think I'm particularly vulnerable to charges of hypocrisy. When I was broke, sick, and uninsured, I didn't suddenly discover that I favored national health insurance; and when I moved to DC, I first looked for a tiny fuel efficient car, and then decided to forgo having one altogether, even though it's rather hard to get around here without one.

The whole point of a moral code, after all, is that sometimes it makes you do things you'd rather not.

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Comments (55)

It's amazing to think that not very long ago we lived almost entirely without air conditioning. Doesn't seem possible now. But I suppose people just spent less time indoors and more time perspiring.

"Government is the great fiction through which everybody endeavors to live at the expense of everybody else. " Frederic Bastiat

MM: "Frankly, there are few public debates so thoroughly dominated by emotion--and not particularly lovely emotion--masquerading as logic."

though, previously: "The open questions are not: is anthropogenic global warming occurring.."

(?)

Several comments:

-I was jumping with glee at your rent control argument, but I don't care what lifestyle an accurate carbon tax would eliminate.

-The rent control argument your liberal interlocuter made is a little bit more nuanced: I think he was making an argument about the need for a city to have people of different earning power, NOT that he had some kind of right to live in NYC, although I'm sure he also believes that, and I am just as unsympathetic to high-living-cost complainers.

-In my mind (and this comes up a lot) the justification for carbon tax is not the impossibility of a Coasean bargain, but the fact that the recipients of the externality are being victimized. If someone literally dumps waste in my yard, yeah, I could pay him to stop, but why should I have to?

-What's the proper carbon tax? Yes, a tax is the most efficient way to handle externalities not accoutned for by economic actors, but how much should it be? Environmentalists want to high-ball to the point that it might as well be a ban. The right tax should be the minimum of a) the amount needed to sequester the carbon, and b) the fractional share of the net damage caused by it. The carbon indulgence sites estimate the average person's exterality at $50/year. If true, people are already almost perfectly accounting for the externality.

-Congestion shouldn't count as a carbon use externality; it is a road use externality.

-More effecient technology by itself won't reduce externalities if they aren't also priced into total costs; rather, they would free up resources to consume more.

Henry Evans - the problem was that pre wide-spread air conditioning every now and then a heatwave would come along and people, mostly elderly, would die.

But here's the thing: how come so many of you are complaining that, in the event of a heavy carbon tax, it would suddenly become less affordable to live in Kansas, or the suburbs?

You assume a priori that global warming is happening, it is bad and catastrophic, and so carbon taxes are a good thing.

There are those who disagree, particularly if someone has a general knowledge of how some of the major advances in human culture and society seem to correspond to higher global temperatures. (Civilization was started during the Holocene Maximum, the Roman Empire flourished during the Roman Warm Period, the Medieval Warm Period saw the end of the Dark Ages and the start of the Renaissance.)

I remember the claims of environmental activists during the 1970's. They were just as alarmist, just as doomsday as anything that we see coming from the Gore camp today. They just happened to be wrong.

James

If anthropogenic global warming turns out to be a Good Thing, would that mean suburbs should be subsidized?

"To the people who said "But I thought you were a libertarian!", this sort of negative externality is exactly what a libertarian government is supposed to deal with. If your activity imposes heavy costs on your neighbors, and there's no possibility of a Coasean bargain, then the commons and free rider problems pose a pretty clear argument for government intervention."

I think, in libertarian terms, it depends on the type of tax you are imposing to deal with these negative externalities. For instance, I think highway and parking usage taxes are perfectly justified- the government owns the roads and streets, after all, so it is justified in imposing a use tax on them. In fact, I'd even say that the fact that the government doesn't tax those things more heavily is just bad business on their part (giving away a valuable commodity for free, and all). This fact also results indirectly in the highway bill always being a huge source of pork - free (or cheap) use of roads makes roads desirable everywhere, lack of income from roads makes the demand for them irrelevant in deciding where roads should be built/maintained, and government subsidy of roads makes them a valuable prize for all politicians (and especially Senators from low-population states), resulting in roads being built where not needed, and not being built where needed (and thus encouraging people to live in the middle of nowhere). I realize there are problems with a pure highway usage tax in terms of appropriately punishing the negative externality of pollution (a hybrid gets taxed at the same rate as an SUV), but it is a justifiable tax nonetheless.

More importantly, I also think you can justify taxes on corporations for emissions, since of course the corporation exists as a result of an agreement with the state. In fact, a tax on corporate emissions would be a far better way of reducing negative externalities by giving producers a great incentive to innovate cleaner technologies- especially since demand for energy as a whole is quite sticky. For example, you could tax utility companies based on their emissions (definitely justifiable on libertarian grounds given the close relationship between utility companies and the state); similarly, you could tax auto manufacturers more heavily based on the average emissions of their vehicles. The key is that you are making the people with the greatest ability to effect change pay directly for not changing. In addition, you are accomplishing the same effect on demand as you would on an end-user based tax since prices will rise to compensate for the higher costs of production.
Under an end-user based carbon tax, though, you are taxing people in a way that few libertarians would find justifiable, while attempting to effect change solely on the demand side of things, and in an area where demand is, as I said, sticky, and each individual person can only have a very marginal effect on demand.

Only to the extent that there is a significant unrecaptured positive externality, which seems unlikely.

James, many of their claims weren't wrong. They claimed that the air and the lakes and the water were dirty, and they were, and we cleaned a lot of the dirt up by requiring polluters to be responsible for their mess. They were wrong about one thing--global cooling--but they were wrong because the coal particulates in the air were causing a cooling effect that we eliminated when we installed sulfur scrubbers.

The climate change skeptics have been engaged in a decade-long retreat to progressively narrower claims, losing many of their vocal members along the way. At this point, the climate models that show catastrophic warming are certainly debatable, but the science that indicates that we're contributing to climate warming doesn't particularly seem to be.

Finally, local warming was good for certain proto-agricultural cultures in some areas. It wasn't good for everyone, particularly when there wasn't an ice age to emerge from; and moreover, it's less likely to produce some kind of a boom when society has become progressively less dependant on agriculture.

Yes, heatwaves can kill. And we're fatter now so death rates would probably be higher. So that's one positive for air conditioning. But if a carbon tax caused us all to raise the thermostat by a handful of degrees, there would probably be no spike in deaths. It's ridiculous that we cool our homes to the point where we use blankets in the summer time.

Cities are mostly low-carbon because they discourage people from having children, or limit the number of children people decide to have. (Taxing education, or other correlates of children, is in fact one substitute for a carbon tax.) But cities also export their complementary and indeed financially required pollution to more distant geographic areas; that means that cities are not low-carbon per se.

Very, very good post Megan (from A to Z).

We need more of those - as amplified by the types of James and Joseph? I can recognize myself in them before I learned to open my mind from mental slavery? Many many years ago - before I've read biology - this is how I used to think: Is Humanity Suicidal? (first published 1993 in the NY Times):

In the midst of uncertainty, opinions on the human prospect have tended to fall loosely into two schools. The first, exemptionalism, holds that since humankind is transcendent in intelligence and spirit, so must our species have been released from the iron laws of ecology that bind all other species. No matter how serious the problem, civilised human beings, by ingenuity, force of will and – who knows – divine dispensation, will find a solution.

Population growth? Good for the economy, claim some of the exemptionalists, and in any case a basic human right, so let it run. Land shortages? Try fusion energy to power the desalting of seawater, then reclaim the world's deserts. The process might be assisted by towing icebergs to coastal pipelines.

Species going extinct? Not to worry. That is nature's way. Think of humankind as only the latest in a long line of exterminating agents in geological time. In any case, because our species has pulled free of old-style, mindless Nature, we have begun a different order of life. Evolution should now be allowed to proceed along this new trajectory.

Finally, resources? The planet has more than enough resources to last indefinitely, if human genius is allowed to address each new problem in turn, without alarmist and unreasonable restrictions imposed on economic development. So hold the course, and touch the brakes lightly.

surely the Coasian point is that the cost of global warming is as much the fault of those who want to live in seafront locations as much as it those who want to use oil?

ie, why is the right to live by the water inherently more vital than the right to emit carbon dioxide?

"The moral question is whether or not you reduce the carbon output..."

Of course, if this assumption is incorrect, the rest of your argument fails.

Have you noticed that people apply the the most moral weight to those areas in which they already excel?

If you can decide the moral basis to judge my life, can I set the standards by which you should live? I'd be willing to try it for a year if you agree.

Yeah, Megan, I think you're mischaracterizing the most common of the "someone like x couldn't afford to live in Manhattan" claims, which is that cities need diversity to thrive, including income diversity, and also that certain kinds of workers -- firemen, police officers, teachers -- ought to live in the areas they work in, because it makes the communities function better. The latter situation can to some extent be compensated for through housing subsidies for public employees, which might be more logical than retaining a general rent discount for whoever is lucky enough or well connected enough to get it.

Also, you would need to disentangle public housing for low-income people, which comprises much of the rent-controlled housing stock in NYC, from rent-controlled prewar apartments on Central Park West. The thing is, at some point your public housing for low-income people is going to coincide with your rent-controlled housing for people in jobs that don't pay that much, and then you will once again be back to asking "why should you have a right to live in Manhattan?" I mean, imagine if the guy you'd been talking to were a Puerto Rican sanitation worker who lived in one of the projects on Columbus Ave., instead of a white liberal. Maybe their incomes are the same. So would you be just as comfortable tellin the Puerto Rican that he shouldn't get publicly subsidized housing because he has no right to live in Manhattan?

This isn't a defense of white liberals asserting their rights to subsidized housing, but it is a defense of the idea that the government may want to intervene in the housing market to ensure affordable housing.

henry evans:

Well, don't know in which part of the country you live in, but I am from Cuba, and while I was there my first "consumerism dream" was to have A/C even in the bathroom. Putting up with 80+ temperatures is very, very hard.

I am pretty frugal but boy, do I like my A/C.

Eduardo

in other words, the magnitude and cost of the externality depends as much on the person who is hit by an action, as it is by the person who does an action. the correct utilitarian solution is to tax the person who has the greatest elasticity -- which may mean taxing people living in low-lying areas rather than those emitting carbon.

One might add one more factor that might be influencing peoples thoughts on the matter. Given the state of 'climate science' and the hypothesis that if we vary our carbon emissions in the present, we will have a non trivial change in future global mean temperature being illustratable by an analogy like "If we don't start tossing virgins into the volcano, well, it's gonna blow", "How do you know that you're right", "How do you know that I'm wrong", being factual, there might more going on here than the post implies.

Cities are mostly low-carbon because they discourage people from having children, or limit the number of children people decide to have.

One hesitates to jump to disagreement with Tyler Cowen, but I find this hard to credit. A comparison of carbon consumption in several crowded cities vs. that in several suburban and rural areas at equivalent income levels and equivalent levels of fertility should not be too hard to do. Also, I am confused as to what it is about having children that is such a big consumer of carbon. It is difficult to credit that a family of four in Manhattan consumes carbon at the same rate as a family of four in New Jersey.

"But here's the thing: how come so many of you are complaining that, in the event of a heavy carbon tax, it would suddenly become less affordable to live in Kansas, or the suburbs?"

Hm. I've never heard anyone make this argument, but I assume some have, so I won't treat it as a red herring.

I suppose I would respond that for the government to impose a substantial additional cost on me in this way is analogous to the use of zoning ordinances to enhance environmental objectives--it represents a post-hoc, unilateral changing of the rules that destroys the value of my investment (just as post-hoc rent control imposition is, of course).

You at least came to NYC long after rent control was around (since as we all know it was imposed in WW2 as a "temporary, emergency" measure. Ha ha.) Would you feel any better if the City suddenly decided to jack up (say) transit fares, or something of that nature? I mean, it's not as if the cost of running the transit system is actually covered by your fare, now is it?

Gosh, I think the MTA should price fares to cover operating costs. I know it doesn't, but I think it should. Nor do I think a carbon tax is the same thing as a regulatory taking. If a polluter is told he can't dump poison into the water supply, is that a regulatory taking because the right to dump would increase the value of his land? Not every government price change is a regulatory taking, even if it reduces the value of your house. I'm also in favor of getting rid of the mortgage tax deduction (albeit slowly), on the same grounds: you oughtn't to have had the subsidy in the first place, so getting rid of it doesn't constitute a taking.

Tracy W says:

Henry Evans - the problem was that pre wide-spread air conditioning every now and then a heatwave would come along and people, mostly elderly, would die.

If the government banned air conditioning, I think it's safe to say that the vast majority of thetre mendous amount of bitching and whining that would result would not really have that much to do with the plight of old people in heat waves.

The old people aren't necessarily the biggest problem any more, anyway. The shift of the economic center of gravity of the country from the North to the south wouldn't have happened without air conditioning. Banning air conditioning in Phoenix, or Houston, or Miami would make those places much less economically viable than they are now, and it doesn't seem likely that that would be allowed to happen.

None of this is to say that there isn't a tremendous savings to be made by reducing air conditioning energy use nationwide, by whatever means.

If subsidized housing isn't available in core cities, cities become much less carbon-friendly, I'd think.

I live in the Hudson Valley, and know many people who have been priced out of the NYC housing market. Some drive 20-30 minutes to get to the train station so they can take a 2-hour train ride into Penn, and then change for the subway. (Housing near the train stations is desirable and pricey, so walking or biking to the train station is also out.)

While my friends use public transit as much as they can, they are still chewing up more energy than I do---I have a 10-mile-round-trip daily commute and a fuel-efficient car, so it takes me weeks to go through a tank of gas.

Basically, NYC and other big cities thrive on having more jobs than they have places to put the workers. The spectacular commutes many of those workers are forced into is a strong negative externality, and definitely a vote for living in a place where you can afford a house near your job. Like Kansas.

A true libertarian government wouldn't be subsidizing a bunch of stuff in the first place. It's kind of silly to say that a tax is the proper solution to too much subsidy. Reduce the subsidy.

As far as people who live in Kansas go, people have lived in Kansas for a long time. It's not like some New Yorkers decided to move to Kansas and convinced the government to build roads and sewers so they could live there.

A lot of the "solutions" to the "problem" of global warming require a relatively competent central planning body that can do things like set carbon taxes and/or allotments at the correct levels and plan out nation or worldwide energy generation and consumption. I'm highly skeptical that any such effort would actually work.

EI

Megan, I don't think conservatives disagree that in as far as their is a problem, it's ok for the government to put their foot in there. The point about living in Kansas is important because it acknowledges that there are costs to an anti-carbon tax.

The problem with government taxing carbon is that the negative effects of more CO2 are ~0 with a 99% chance (negative feedbacks cancel positive and so warming is 0, or warming is mild or warming benefits some and hurts others, etc.), and +inf with a 1% chance (oceans rise 100ft). Overall, this works out to a positive number, so we conclude that something must be done. But only by not acknowledging the good things that producing CO2 does for us.

You would never analyze the rent control problem by ignoring the fact that it benefits the poor. That's all part of the cost/benefit calculation. Similarly, you shouldn't analyze CO2 as if the harm from cutting CO2 emissions is 0.

A response to Megan's question:

Many people moved to the burbs (i live in the city) before a carbon tax was passed. To impose one after the fact may make living the burbs (or the specific location in the burbs they have chosen) unaffordable or just no longer attractive. Essentially the moved to the burbs under one set of rules and now the rules are being changed with no compensation. The costs of adjusting to the change for some people may be well above the marginal costs of the tax.

so, one thing has been nagging me on the whole carbon tax thing, maybe you someone can help me with it...

HOW does having a tax imposed, actually cut carbon output right away? Let's say you put a $1 a gallon tax on my fuel. Is that going to force me to move to the city and start using mass transit tomorrow?

Sure, I'll complain, but re-jiggering my cureentl life to meet that need is probably going to involve me jamming econo in other areas, because there is NO easy way for me to change how far I am from work, or the fact that there is not transit going there.

Eventually, when my lease is up, I would look for closer housing, but I won't be able to afford that much different, and housing price is often similar for similar distances from an location. In essence nothing will change in my PRODUCTION of carbon for years down the road. Not only will it be hard to change, but I won't be able to afford it.

Seems like that carbon tax will have a hard time hitting it's target of reducing carbon output.

In the long run, it may well cause some change as less polluting tech, comes on line, as it's easier for cities to get dense, and so on, but it'll be my grandkids generation before change is noticable. I thought this was an immediate need. I thought we had to change within 10 years. If that is so, then a tax is WAY too slow.

Also? We are the government, and it is us. We decided to provide roads, and so we have. It is a subsidy to ourselves, required because some things REQUIRE roads. Like commerce for example. The more everyone uses roads, the more efficient the sunk cost is. We could drive on dirt like in the old days if you like. There is no subsidy in that. In addition, I live very close to where I was born and raised, just like you. The government doesn't subsidize me, I pay for IT. Just like we all do.

or something like that...

In an earlier post you stated that close to half of US emissions were transportation related. Here you state that 35% are transportation related. Which of those estimates is accurate and how confident are you of them? It would certainly help my understanding of these issues to see a thorough presentation of where the warming emissions are coming from, both nationally and globally, including discussions of confidence intervals, etc.

Our gracious host wrote: The greater distance between you and your electric power source means greater transmission losses.

I'd submit that for most suburbs, the transmission losses are lower than for cities. I don't recall seeing many power plants in the urban core of Houston, Dallas, Fort Worth, Austin or Chicago - cities I have some familiarity with. In Houston, the powerplants are all located in rural areas, closer to the suburbs. Major powerplants tend to be quite a distance from urban cores due to the need for coal trains to arrive and the need for big cooling ponds. So the suburbs, and rural areas, win on that tally.

However, the rest of the post is pretty well reasoned.

D wrote: HOW does having a tax imposed, actually cut carbon output right away? Let's say you put a $1 a gallon tax on my fuel. Is that going to force me to move to the city and start using mass transit tomorrow? Sure, I'll complain, but re-jiggering my cureentl life to meet that need is probably going to involve me jamming econo in other areas, because there is NO easy way for me to change how far I am from work, or the fact that there is not transit going there.

The carbon tax will show up all over, not just on gasoline. So, you scrimp and save to meet your gasoline bill and notice that electricity is more expensive. You buy compact fluorescent light bulbs (or LED bulbs in a few years - they'll make CFs look like energy wasters), a computerized thermostat to auto-adjust the temps when you are at work, keep the thermostat at higher/lower temps, turn the computer off when not in use, unplug power bricks when not in use, pay attention to energy use ratings when you replace your appliances, etc. I'm already doing many of these changes, since I live 26 miles from work, have no transit to work ,and can't move in the near term.

As a conservative, I don't have any objection per se to making suburbanites pay the true cost of their lifestyles, so long as everyone else does. I do have a number of quibbles, though, which others may share and which Megan may mistake for dislike of the underlying idea.

1) As with many non-Pareto optimal changes to the status quo, the cost and disruption of the change itself is a little offputting. Tens of millions of people have bought and financed homes based on the assumption that the existing regulatory structure will remain more or less constant, including the relative absence of carbon taxation and road tolls, and a related abomination, the presence of the mortgage interest deduction. That doesn't mean that the change isn't a good idea in theory, but in practice, the fact that *you* are proposing to sock it to *me* for all of our benefit is a little offputting.

2) On carbon, particularly when I have to pay the price for it, I question the ability of other people to price my negative externalities, especially when they need not pay for those supposed externalities themselves. Sure, I recognize that I have the opposite bias, but I don't see a good way for this to be anything other than a pure self-interested contest between communiting suburbanites like me with no access to convenient mass transit and urbanite wonks in DC who live in DC and will sleep their bien-passant nights more soundly knowing that I am paying a carbon tax.

3) There's also a tragedy of the commons issue in here somewhat. If we live on one border of a common, and you trademen propose to tax us sheep farmers for grazing on it, is it reasonable to complain that many of the other border communities are not taxing *their* sheep-farmers equally?

I think banning A/C may have a positive effect on the economy: Washington would be unbearable for months during the summer, forcing Congress to recess, and thereby lifting long-term negative pressures on the economy!

Essentially the moved to the burbs under one set of rules and now the rules are being changed with no compensation.

Yeah. Well, a lot of people moved to the coasts under one set of rules, and now it turns out sea level is rising because all those people in the burbs drove their cars so much, and they can't get insurance any more.

Rules change because the world changes because things change because people do things. And as a result, prices change. Get used to life as a human being on Planet Earth.

Also re: air conditioning - one way they survived was by not living in the South. The growth of Atlanta, Dallas, Phoenix and other hot cities directly correlates to the relative penetration of air conditioning in homes and offices.

The difference is that it is the market which makes Manhattan prohibitively expensive. A carbon tax is an example of the government making living in Kansas much more expensive.

The reason the former doesn't bother me and the latter does is that the latter is coercive and the former is not.

"a shocking number of fellow travelers on the left do so little to reduce their own carbon emissions that it might as well be nothing, on the grounds that it's irrelevant until we get collective action--and then denounce me for pointing out that exactly the same logic applies to leaving China and India out of any global emissions trading regime."

But the U.S. puts out an appreciable percentage of all emissions. OTOH, even the single most carbon-intensive person in the United contributes a fairly tiny amount to overall U.S. emissions. I could go out, buy a Hummer and idle it for a year without increasing U.S. emissions by a noticeable percentage, even though this step would double my current emissions (or higher). But if the U.S. overall doubled its emissions, it would have significant impacts. This comparison isn't really valid.

Living in Kansas with a carbon tax will not be more expensive at all. What will be more expensive is driving your car. It is unfortunate that people in Kansas tend to have lifestyles which involve more driving, but that is THE POINT OF THE TAX -- to make it more expensive to drive.

Utilities companies are taking proactive steps to adjust to the reality that carbon taxes are coming. If I lived in Kansas, I would start taking some proactive steps as well. Make your next car a Prius.

However, the vast majority of opposition here isn't coming from people who live in Kansas. It's coming from people who live in suburban areas in high-density parts of the US. Those people are going to want to start voting and lobbying for improved public transit. Because like it or not, it is going to get a lot more expensive to drive over the next five years or so, and you'll be better off if you start preparing now.

As a Kansan and suburbanite, let me say that I'm not worried about a carbon tax.

We have nuclear power, and we'll have wind power soon enough. And while many suburbanites in other parts of the country have lengthy commutes on congested highways, I don't.

I'm glad Megan is aware that, on average, longer transmission lines to serve electricity to a given area results in greater losses. Since NYC, much of New England, D.C., the Baltimore area, NoVa, and other areas of the Eastern USA would not even have electric service during either winter or summer peaks and about 30% of the side-peak demands if not for the multitude of 400-500 mile transmission lines connecting those areas to the western Pa, WVa, and Ohio generating plants burrning that eeeevil coal. The same can be said of much of California being connected to generation to the North and East of California. The losses attributed to urban use are an order of magnitude larger than for the rural consumers.

"Those people are going to want to start voting and lobbying for improved public transit"

No, these people are going to toss the carbon taxing politicians out on their ears.

I wish I were as confident as brooksfoe about "the reality that carbon taxes are coming." I expect they'll get all bolloxed up in disagreements about how to make them revenue neutral. Some combination of reducing payroll taxes and permanently fixing the AMT might be a compromise that could work. But there'll people arguing for using the money on research or subsidies for alternative energy. So my guess is no significant carbon tax in the near future.

Mike, check again--last time I looked, New York City generated more than 80% of its forecast load within its very small city limits.


Meagan - There is a big difference between government imposing price controls and the government refraining from imposing a tax. Even if the tax is a pigovian tax for a perceived externality. Imposing a price control reduces freedom. Refraining from imposing a tax doesn't. And even if you ignore freedom in the calculation there is a lot of doubt with the idea that government will impose the correct amount of costs through pigovian taxation.

And to consider that difference important you don't even have to doubt global warming, or that its caused by man, or that CO2 emissions are the largest cause, or that failing to reduce such emissions will result in a decent amount of warming, or that the tax will cause emissions to be reduced to an important extent, or that this reduction will be sufficient to prevent or noticeably mitigate the amount of global warming, or that the warming will on the net be very harmful, or that other ways of dealing with it would not be better. I don't consider the combination of all those factors anywhere close to a settled question, in fact I'd be surprised if you do.

I'm not quickly turning up convenient data for New York City, but the following link indicates a few interesting points for the state generally:

http://tonto.eia.doe.gov/state/state_energy_profiles.cfm?sid=NY

1. New York has the lowest per-capita energy consumption in the US due to public transit, high housing densities, and mild summer temperatures;

2. New York is one of the nation's top hydroelectric sites (exceeded, I think, by only the Columbia River hydro projects);

3. New York has four nuclear generation sites;

4. New York is a major generator of power from decomposition gasses in municipal and landfill waste;

however, in spite of the above,

5. New York is a major net importer of electricity from neighboring states, and Canada.

"Gosh, I think the MTA should price fares to cover operating costs. I know it doesn't, but I think it should."

Well, fares would go up a lot if they actually covered costs: in which category we must include maintenance costs and capital replacement costs.

If the fare went from $2.00 a ride to (say) $10.00 a ride, do you think cities would remain as "low-carbon" as they are now?

"Nor do I think a carbon tax is the same thing as a regulatory taking. If a polluter is told he can't dump poison into the water supply, is that a regulatory taking because the right to dump would increase the value of his land?"

Carbon dioxide--contrary to what your analogy implies--is not a toxin. It is a natural byproduct of life as we know it. You and I each put carbon dioxide into the atmosphere with each breath we take. Maybe you'd like to tax that too? Maybe we should all have to get breathing permits when we are born, and if we don't pay our annual carbon tax on them, we shouldn't be allowed to breathe, eh?

A more pertinent analogy would be the man who is told he can no longer drain the icky, malarial swamp on his land because it's now a "protected wetland".

If you assume your conclusions, it's easy to win the argument.

"However, if getting you that big house in the leafy suburbs requires imposing heavy costs on other people--either directly through taxes, or indirectly through negative externalities--then no, I do not think you should have that house, no matter how much you like it. "

Megan, maybe you buried it all in what is, after all, a quite powerfully-hypothetical "if", but generally you do seem very fond of claiming that such-and-such group is imposing a "negative externality" on... well, you. Seems to pop up in every other article nowadays.

Did I miss the actual analysis, where you actually proved it?

I don't think it suffices to simply point to one single item (like "carbon") in isolation from everything else, and based solely on that item, assert that the people in question, by doing the thing in question (like "living in a house"), are therefore causing you a "negative externality". That's as one-dimensional an analysis as they come.

Even if I grant that "carbon" is the bugaboo you seem to think/assume it is (which I don't), the action of living in a house in a suburb (etc.) has quite a long list of ramifications in addition to simply the "carbon" "footprint". And you haven't unraveled them all. Nor, far as I can tell, even attempted to do so. And even the "carbon" "footprint" itself would require an actual analysis to pin down - and there would still be rather large error bars, and many assumptions, left behind. It's simply not valid to just say "I think houses use more (whatever)!" and leave it at that, as if hunches and gut feelings are the same as full analyses.

Seriously: for all I know, if everything were taken into account (as if this were possible!), it could be the case that city dwellers who impose a (net) "negative externality" on the burb folk. (And isn't it *net* that matters for such a discussion?) Of course, I freely admit really don't know.

But it honestly doesn't seem you do either.

It's very easy to look at one factor and cry "negative externality". Hey, I'm stuck behind you in traffic -> negative externality!

I think it is also rather meaningless. What if the reason I'm stuck behind you in traffic is that you're a doctor driving to the free urgent care clinic you volunteer at... and where I'm going to get a cut stitched up? Should I whine and bitch and moan about the "negative externality" you imposed upon me before or after you stitch me up?

One-dimensional "negative externality" analysis is really, really pointless.

"Even if I grant that "carbon" is the bugaboo you seem to think/assume it is (which I don't), the action of living in a house in a suburb (etc.) has quite a long list of ramifications in addition to simply the "carbon" "footprint". And you haven't unraveled them all. Nor, far as I can tell, even attempted to do so. And even the "carbon" "footprint" itself would require an actual analysis to pin down - and there would still be rather large error bars, and many assumptions, left behind. It's simply not valid to just say "I think houses use more (whatever)!" and leave it at that, as if hunches and gut feelings are the same as full analyses."

yeah, prove it Megan. You haven't provided any proof of "carbon" "footprint" being a proxy in any way that indicates a general indication that of a negative impact on the standard of living. Furthermore, those assumptions you make that would be critical to unraveling the "worlds largest ball of strink" are not fully agreed upon. Clearly, from links provided in other posts, condos are more expensive than homes, therefore they use more materials and energy, disproving your entire point.

The climate change skeptics have been engaged in a decade-long retreat to progressively narrower claims, losing many of their vocal members along the way. At this point, the climate models that show catastrophic warming are certainly debatable, but the science that indicates that we're contributing to climate warming doesn't particularly seem to be.

Well, as a skeptical layman I guess I would be a lot more broke up about this retreat if it wasn't for the fact that no lesser a light thanFreeman Dyson is one of us climate change heretics. His arguments are impossible to dismiss lightly.

yours/
peter.


I don't see it as the government's job to enable you to live in Kansas, or a big house on a half-acre lot in the leafy suburbs

Leafy suburbs...yessss...very leafy now that you mention it. My yard is a little over an acre and supports a lot of vegetation which sequesters a lot of carbon I bet—certainly compared to urban apartment dwellers. Yeah. In fact I think you city dwellers owe me some carbon credits. Heh.

yours/
peter.

If the government banned air conditioning, I think it's safe to say that the vast majority of thetre mendous amount of bitching and whining that would result would not really have that much to do with the plight of old people in heat waves.

Indeed. However that does not make the plight of elderly people in heat waves any less dangerous.

The carbon tax will show up all over, not just on gasoline. So, you scrimp and save to meet your gasoline bill and notice that electricity is more expensive. You buy compact fluorescent light bulbs (or LED bulbs in a few years - they'll make CFs look like energy wasters), a computerized thermostat to auto-adjust the temps when you are at work, keep the thermostat at higher/lower temps, turn the computer off when not in use, unplug power bricks when not in use, pay attention to energy use ratings when you replace your appliances, etc. I'm already doing many of these changes, since I live 26 miles from work, have no transit to work ,and can't move in the near term.

And let's not forget that old '70s chestnut: carpooling.

Doesn't work that way, Peter. To get adequate carbon sequestration, you have to plant new trees every year, since the ones in your yard don't actually remove very much carbon from the air. One estimate, from Britain, indicated that using sequestration to cover its carbon output would see the entire island completely covered in trees in under a decade.

David Hecht wrote: Carbon dioxide--contrary to what your analogy implies--is not a toxin. It is a natural byproduct of life as we know it. You and I each put carbon dioxide into the atmosphere with each breath we take. Maybe you'd like to tax that too? Maybe we should all have to get breathing permits when we are born, and if we don't pay our annual carbon tax on them, we shouldn't be allowed to breathe, eh?

In fairness, David, this does not work, for the simple reason that I can substitute "crap" for "carbon" and end up with an equally valid argument, but a false conclusion. Raw sewage is natural, but it is very much a public and environmental health hazard and its mitigation is paid for via taxes, access fees, and other means. Even baby crap cannot be simply dumped anywhere, merely on the basis that the baby is unable to pay for diapers and landfill access.

If your argument is that unsequestered carbon does not pose anywhere near that kind of risk, then fine; but now we're merely back to the old argument, not advancing some novel form.

Peter

With all due respect for the great achievements of Mr Freeman Dyson in the field of physics... he is using his well known name from physics to make rather embarrassing claims about the ecology and even consciousness – just like Roger Penrose does.

I call their claims scientifically embarrassing because in both cases - they do not use sources. they have not consulted with experts of the field. They both assumed that their good name is enough to interest the scientific community.

As you can imagine – the biologists are not impressed. Freeman more or less repeats was Mr Lomborg is arguing – that global climate change could be good for certain areas like the Sahara (Mr Lomborg uses the north for his examples. but at least Mr Lomborg has tried to use some sources and even sources from biologists. wrongly and randomly but still.. at least he tried?).

In both cases (Dyson and Lomborg) – species extinction, biodiversity and soil erosion as well as water depletion are mentioned barely and vaguely. (Dyson, in contrast to Lomborg, does not mention extinction at all? As if they do not exist or matter for the proposed scenarios of adapting to Siberia or the Sahara. (that is as if you avoid inflation, debt, unemployment etc for an economic analysis of a country)

Ecology is not physics or math. Only because we have a democracy in the US and think to understand what it needs and takes to manifest it and even if we have all the ingredients necessary for it (enough literate people, etc.) - does not mean that we can create one in eg Iraq from scratch (biological entities grow and evolve and are not produced or created. We use these words mistakenly when the talk about food and animals etc). Nature is far more complex than that (and far more “global”).

Now – imagine a changing climate as we experienced it during the last phase of mass species extinction... there was no adopting in time as Mr Lomborg and Mr Dyson hope for? It would take far too long for the ecosystem to recover (to a point where we could “use” the desert or Siberia) than would be needed by billions of displaced humans?

A few years ago – serious scientists like E O Wilson or the Union Of Concerned Scientists still bothered to answer to Lomborg’s distractions.. but not so anymore in recent years. Lomborg himself tries to avoid ecological discussions and rather promotes himself as a policy advisor for the “real” dangers.

One sad sad thing about Mr Freeman Dyson however is that he claims that the ecological and environmental models are too theoretical and academic and that in his old days – they used to go out and “observe”.. It should be clear why E O Wilson and most other biologists have not even attempted to answer to that one (on eg The Edge, etc.). Compared to Wilson – most of us (including Freeman) have not even left our mother’s womb. During his life-time, Wilson, with his own eyes, has seen many forests in pre Castro Cuba, South America, Africa where he discovered new species – disappear for good..

Yes Mr E O Wilson is an activist for more consilience – but he never meant what Mr Penrose and Mr Freeman are doing (narcissistic ignorance – not consulting with any experts – no using sources – thinking that biology is simpler than physics – in other words: projection and digging you own hole deeper..). This is the opposite of consilience..

But I agree with Mr Lomborg that governments should invest in solar technologies and that electric is better than hybrid, etc. His economic and political and even technical (solar vs nuclear) analysis is much more worth than his ecological interpretations (which are risky at best)! I like Mr Lomborg these days because he does come up with solutions (almost all the possible questions have been asked and documented by think tanks aver the past decades?)

What I find so sad is that so many skeptics react like that:

X: Global warming is real..
Y: I do not know enough about it but do not believe it... I believe it when i see it but I am not looking on purpose. whateva - we need a cost-analysis and that is not possible so let's do nothing and adapt..
X: ..but Solar and other green sources are already price competitive in certain areas and have had enough prove of concept behind them.. look here for example..
Y: I do not know enough about it but do not believe it... I believe it when i see it but I am not looking on purpose.. either way go nuclear!!!
X: But what does nuclear cost?
Y: I have not clue and do not care as long as I speak with people like you who do not care about cost-benefit..

At least Reason Magazine and other's like Lomborg have moved beyond that stage.. from what I can understand about your thinking - you are quite alone these days Peter?

With regard to the rent control issue and the argument that those who can not afford to live in Manhattan should be given- one way or another- money that would allow them to do so in the interests of "diversity", a few random points:
- Rent control and rent stablization are at this point applied randomly. Everyone in NY knows people of limited means who do not live in rent controlled apartments and many more well to do folks that do.
- Apartments subject to controls appear randomly thoughout the city, in neighborhoods rich and poor.
- Rent control/ stablization as it exists does little for economic diversity. The guy in apt #2A who just moved in can make less money and pay more in rent than the guy in #2B whose been there forever.
- Manhatan does not in any way need diversty in income levels of its residents to "survive", it will easily survive without. And the City as a whole is certainly economically diverse (as opposed to Manhattan alone); there are plenty of poor neighborhoods in other boroughs or in Jersey where lower income people can and do live. In this way Manhatan itself can be thought of as a wealthy neighborhood, and in fact the subway system has made it- in effect-into a neighborhood. Before subways, when slow foot and horse traffic were the only way to get around, Manhattan was a city unto itself and did need diversity to survive. No more.
-So, Mr.-I-can't-afford-Manhattan-otherwise, you don't want to live in a poor neighborhood? No kidding you don't, neither do the people who actualy live in poor nieghborhoods. In fact, I'd wager those people might just have more to offer in terms of "diversity"- would you like to switch places with them for the greater good?
-I now live in Pelham, NY, a pretty affluent town. I can (barely) afford it. Its nice. Larchmont would be even nicer, but I can't afford it. Shall I take your money so that I can live there, where life would be better for me, on the grounds that it would make Larchmont more "diverse"?

well this has turned into a rant but rent control is so arbitrary and unfair it just P's me O, man.

The negative externalities of carbon use are distributed worldwide, and are probably concentrated in areas that are much poorer than the US. I'd argue that any carbon tax imposed by the US government should only take into account those externalities imposed on US citizens, which will reduce the tax by more than an order of magnitude. It's not generally the US government's business to mitigate externalities imposed by citizens on non-citizens--that's what foreign governments are for. I suppose the foreigners have the option of asking for a US carbon tax by means of treaty, but they'd better be offering something pretty valuable to make up for deadweight
economic losses on the order several percent of GNP.

On the other hand, if we decide as a matter of charity that we want to better the lives of the people of Bangaladesh, and that we wish to spend hundreds of billions of dollars doing so, it seems to me that we would do better to simply give them the money rather than spending it on carbon mitigation. Or perhaps, for the same cost, invade them and impose a sensible government which protects property rights.

Megan says

But here's the thing: how come so many of you are complaining that, in the event of a heavy carbon tax, it would suddenly become less affordable to live in Kansas, or the suburbs?
You know if someone lives in Kansas they are probably doing economically / socially useful work.
.
Minor little things like preserving a very good carbon sink and one of the last remaining parcels of tall grass prairie in the US
.
The Flint Hills
.
Furthermore, I would not be surprised if the average resident of Kansas has a lower carbon impact then the average mass transit using resident of New York or Washington DC.

For example everything the aforementioned cities uses is trucked in and the garbage they produced is trucked out.

The food those cities use is trucked to them from places like Kansas. Food that is imported into the US has a longer transport (more carbon consumption)way to reach the east coast.
.
Kansas is a lot closer to the rio grande valley, california, and the major food receiving ports then east coast cities are.

The east coast has a much higher income level and oftentimes income level is a rough approximation for carbon consumption.

Furthermore, the east coast cities sink little if any carbon. The prairie in places like Kansas sinks lots of carbon.

I don't know if a carbon consumption comparison between the two areas has been done but it would be interesting to see.

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