I am, as readers know, generally of the opinion that the Iraq War has been a clusterbomb of badly made decisions leading to even worse outcomes. And those who opposed the war had every right to become frustrated and angry when the war's more gung-ho supporters refused to acknowlege evidence that things were going very, very badly.
Lately, however, the anti-war side is beginning to sound a lot like the boosters they were so angry at. This is the particular example that caught my eye, but there is an increasingly rich body of blog posts and other writing that are the collective equivalent of sticking your fingers in your ears and chanting "La la la la la la la I can't HEAR you!"
Look, data from Iraq are bad. Bad, bad, bad. We don't know to any reasonable degree of certainty how many civilians have been killed, how many are displaced, how many are now living abroad; how the material condition of Iraq's many millions has changed since the war; or how many have lived or died because of the secondary effects of our invasion. We will never know those things well, but right now we don't even really know them badly, because it's very hard to gather data.
So one has to be cautious in making any statement about conditions in Iraq, and whether they are getting better or worse. But the best collection of data we have is Brookings' Iraq Index. To be sure I find a lot of their data kind of sketchy--David Petraeus may be a swell chap, but I'm not sure I want to rely on a powerpoint presentation he gave to Congress as my sole source of information about Iraqi civilian casualties. However, in the cases where the data is sketchy, they're nonetheless the best we have.
So while I wouldn't make any definitive statement about many of these data individually, collectively, they present a pretty powerful case that things in Iraq are imrpoving rapidly. All the indicators are going in the same direction. Yes, there could be some explanation for reverse refugee flows other than the obvious, which is that people love their country, and want to live there if it is not too dangerous. Any of the improvements could be explained away. But taken as a group, the various quibbles are easily sliced by Ockham's Razor.
The improvement may not last. And even if it does, there's still a fine argument to be made that the suffering which preceded it made the invasion a terrible, terrible idea. But the current strategy of ignoring the news from Iraq, or quibbling with it, doesn't lay a sound foundation for making that argument.
The United Nations raised new concern Wednesday about a possible cholera outbreak in Baghdad ahead of the rainy season, saying the capital accounts for 79 percent of all new cases despite a national decline.
The Iraqi Health Ministry reported that two boys in a Baghdad orphanage died of cholera this month and six other children there had been diagnosed with the disease, which was first detected Aug. 14 in the northern city of Kirkuk.
The U.N. Children's Fund said 101 cases had been recorded in the capital, most in the past three weeks, making it the source of 79 percent of all new cases. It said no single source for the outbreak had been identified, but the main Shiite enclave of Sadr City was among the areas hardest hit.
"While national caseloads are declining, we are increasingly concerned about a possible outbreak in Baghdad," UNICEF said in a statement. "UNICEF is working with WHO to try to limit the spread in the capital and treat the sick as Iraq's rainy season sets in."
The humanitarian organization said it was providing oral rehydration salts and water purification tablets for families, as well as jerry cans at water distribution points. It also was transporting 47,552 gallons of safe water per day to Baghdad's most affected districts, including schools and other institutions.
UNICEF said the recent case in the orphanage "raises concerns for all children in institutions and schools in Baghdad," and it issued an urgent appeal to "Iraq's government to clean water storage tanks in all institutions as one preventive measure."
The World Health Organization has confirmed more than 3,300 cholera cases in Iraq and at least 14 deaths from the acute and rapid dehydration it causes.
The outbreak has now spread to half of the country's 18 provinces.
Cholera is a gastrointestinal disease typically spread by drinking contaminated water. It can cause severe diarrhea that, in extreme cases, can lead to fatal dehydration. It is preventable by treating drinking water with chlorine and improving hygiene conditions.
"In general, Iraq's water and sanitation networks are in a critical condition," UNICEF said, estimating that only one in three Iraqi children can rely on a safe water source, particularly in Baghdad and southern cities.
http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20071129/ap_on_he_me/iraq_cholera&printer=1;_ylt=Ah8nA66oHDk8jW_rn7GQ_RNa24cA
news to be ignored...or, Hey, what's a little cholera among friends, right?
Posted by MEH | December 10, 2007 11:42 AM