Emily Thorson, who has organized in Iowa, has suggested that it was a fluky weirdness about the caucus system:
The TV coverage I've been watching has implied that New Hampshire is a crazy comeback surprise and Iowa is somehow the "real" result. I think they're wrong. Iowa is the anomaly, because of the bizarre public forum that is the Iowa caucus. You know why Hillary does worse in a caucus? Because women who are leaning Hillary go to the caucus with their husbands, and he says "Let's go for Obama" or "Let's go for Edwards" and she says "Well, all right then" because she doesn't want to spend the next hour sitting alone in the Hillary group. I've sat through a caucus. This is how it works.
I'm also hearing that the Clinton organization in Iowa was a bit of a disaster: no hispanic literature at all, basically no student outreach, and a host of other, smaller problems. That doesn't negate what Emily says, but it might have amplified the effect.
In a marriage, doesn't the wife usually tell the husband what to do, not the other way around?
Uh, this is a Hillary talking point from before Iowa. Rather than cite Ms. Thorson, it might be easier to just cite the Clinton campaign.
Why would Hispanic literature be needed in Iowa?
Helter, no kidding, but then that loses the veneer of journalistic integrity(wherever that body got buried)..
If anyone should be questioning the vote from NH, it should be Obama..
"Those who cast the votes decide nothing, those who count the votes decide everything." - Joseph Stalin
why would wives be more likely to go along with their husbands than vice versa?
But the *entrance polls* (not exit polls) showed Obama with a 5 point advantage among women; such polls aren't affected by the in-the-room dynamic of the caucuses. And Clinton won (narrowly) among married women; unmarried women, who aren't affected by the issue Thorson mentioned, are the ones who broke decisively for Obama.
Hispanic literature seems like an unfortunate phrase in this context. I don't live in Iowa, but I presume that none of the candidates were handing out copies of Pedro Paramo.
Although Iowa is overwhelmingly white in absolute terms, Hispanics are the largest minority group in Iowa and growing rapidly.
Whoever wrote this obviously knows little of Iowans. Just down the street from me There is a Huckabee and a John Edwards sign in the yard. At my caucus most of the people I knew who were married were in different camps. Iowa is famous for households who vote for different candidates.
I think Obama won the race Dean was supposed to win. The fervent Obama supporters I knew were for Obama. It became a joke at our house. But after the caucus I saw that the turnout Dean expected became a reality, almost to the the number. I believe the Trippi thought he needed 200,000 people to turn out to win, but only 150,000 came. So when Obama got 220,000 out ,backed by independents and students he won. Just the demographic Dean wanted. Obama just had the charisma Dean lacked. It was the same issue in 2004 as it is now in Iowa THE F**KING WAR!