He blogs perspicaciously about the primaries:
If you're not looking at the betting markets...You should be. Obama, as of the time of this post, is up to 60 percent against Hillary Clinton. McCain has lost about five points but Romney hasn't gained much. It's hard to glean any of this from MSM or even most blog accounts. C'mon people, turn your TVs off and go crash the InTrade servers, making sure you pay homage to Hayek and Robin Hanson along the way.
Intrade, for newbies, is here.
I've been very unimpressed with Intrade. It seems more like a lagging indicator of electoral expectations than an insightful example of the free market. And, of course, if you understand anything about the free market, this makes sense. Markets work based on accumulated information. Yet most political watchers (and I'm assuming most Intraders are political watchers) get their news from a very limited number of sources, and largely the same sources from which everyone gets them. They certainly failed to grasp how weak a candidate Rudy was, and they almost completely dumped McCain, and the Obama intrade bounce came after this electoral bounce.