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Politcians v. reality

14 Feb 2008 07:07 am

Andrew responds to my post on Obama:

No he will not transform politics. He won't abolish our problems. He won't eliminate our enemies. He won't disappear partisanship. That's not the point. He's a decent, reasonable human being prepared to tackle these problems outside the depressing template of Morris-Rove politics. One way he can begin to do that is to bring a wave of support with him, to appeal beyond Washington to Americans who know this country is in a terrible mess and want to fix it. That's what Reagan did. He wasn't perfect. But we still remember the difference.

Look, I support the guy. He's the only major presidential candidate in the field that I'd even consider voting for, and that's been true since the inception of the race. That wasn't a criticism of Obama as much of a criticism of a political system that relies at least as much on completely empty promises as on actual likely policy prescriptions to choose its leaders--which is to say, all of them. The American system is not special in this regard. Nor is Obama. Everyone is going around promising that the transformative action of their posterior upon that big chair in the Oval Office will in some way bring about a New America. I wish they wouldn't. I pick on Obama precisely because as of now, he's my guy, so I'd like to hear something less fantastical.

Comments (39)

For once, I totally agree with you. I like Obama but all this hope and change stuff is making me uncomfortable. We don't need Moses. We need a competent President that has his/her priorities straight. I hope it is all an act to get elected, which is an extremely cynical view. But then I am a cynic.

That's a good one Jane, you are a libertarian and you pick the one politician with the most statest policies. Wait until you get to see a different doctor every time you go in about your allergies and it slowly dawns upon you that the poor doctor does not have enough time to read your or any patient's chart before seeing the 40 people he has to see a day. He'll just ask you for a summary of your situation and interrupt you after about 20 seconds. Then you will be at the door handing over your national health care card so he gets his $6.95 for the visit.

I don't remember you being at all concerned about reality back in 2004 when you wrote that 10,000 word essay about why we should vote for Bush.

I guess you think higher taxes, more regulations, laws giving unions more power, an immediate withdrawal from Iraq and a "progressive" approach to education will help this country?

I guess you think higher taxes, more regulations, laws giving unions more power, an immediate withdrawal from Iraq and a "progressive" approach to education will help this country?


No, I guess more tax breaks for the super rich, less regulation of the financial sector, laws giving corporations more power, no pullout ever from Iraq (and maybe a war on the side with Iran), and a "creationist" approach to education will really help this country.

'less fantastical' in what democracy does less fantastical motivate people to get off their 'posterior' and vote? Much less contribute to the campaign in some way. Surprisingly unrealistic coming from an economist

I see a similarity to Jimmy Carter not Ronald Reagan.

Being a coldhearted bastard, I don't get much out of the Hope and Change rhetoric. But I see how he gets people excited, which means he'll probably get more people to the polls in November.That means a bigger margin -- and larger mandate -- for him and more down-ticket success for the party. *That* gets me excited.

"I say you are the Messiah, and I should know, I've followed a few." -- Guy from "Life of Brian", dba Andrew Sullivan

Sullivan doesn't even remember how he felt about Bush 6 years ago, and we're supposed to be swayed by his memories of Reagan?

I pick on Obama precisely because as of now, he's my guy, so I'd like to hear something less fantastical.

The problem is that much of the less fantastical stuff is things like attacking NAFTA. Of course, perhaps you're just hoping that if he has enough bad ideas that he'll say him so that you can support no one in this election instead.

I realize that large part of Megan's hope is that Obama is lying and pandering right now during the primary, and that when it comes to governing hopefully his advisor Austin Goolsbee will have a strong influence.

He's also spoken in favor of higher capital gains rates. I'm interested in how Goolsbee thinks that they'll be able to raise capital gains but do it in a way that exempts "entrepreneurs, venture capitalists and small-business owners forming new enterprises." There is the general nice stuff about simplifying the tax code that everyone promises, but never happens.

Not sure how that matches up with Obama wanting to give special tax breaks to Patriot Corporations, where one part of being named a Patriot Corporation is agreeing with eliminating the secret ballot for union elections.

I guess you think higher taxes, more regulations, laws giving unions more power, an immediate withdrawal from Iraq and a "progressive" approach to education will help this country?

Look at the approach the past seven years. Has it made this country any better? Look at the mortgage mess. Regulation would have helped mitigate it, if the Fed even bothered to enforce what is already on the books.

Huh? So the reason to vote for him is because he's popular and a popular president is more likely to succeed. There's something very Orweilian in that.

After you wade through all of Obama's "Tuesday's with Morrie" rhetoric you basically have Ted Kennedy politics and ideas there.

I'm not sure how everyone comes to the conclusion that he's a "decent guy". Does he smile nicely when he looks at the camera?

We have to have to hope to dream that change can happen with a new direction of unlimited dreams of greatness without partisanship. Repeat 10 times.

We have to have to hope to dream that change can happen with a new direction of unlimited dreams of greatness without partisanship. Repeat 10 times.


You do understand that people disagree on how to fix things and get things done, right? The whole post-partisan nonsense is just a figment in the imagination of "Bobo" Brooks and "Dean" Broder.

For those who cannot understand how a "libertarian" could consider Obama a candidate worth voting for, you just need to think beyond politics and economics. Megan has jungle fever.


Just kidding!!

I'm fairly nerd-core libertarian myself and I'm leaning towards Obama as well. I'm doing so because of the Goolsbee factor and the his quiet support from Wall St.

I see his platform and his voting record, but being President is far away from campaigning or even being a Senator. He can promise all the change in the Universe, but he'll have to govern from the center.

Both Bushes and Reagen purported to be fiscal conservatives, all three massively increased bureaucracy and spending. Ideology has little relation to governance.

It's counter-intuitive but just as it took a hawk like Nixon to reach out to China, it'll take someone like Obama to counter the excesses of this current administration. God dam I hate democracy.

Megan, you are not a liberterian. You have some libertarian leanings, I guess, but you have expressed support for a number of non-libertarian policies.

Obama is pretty hard left and hardly libertarian in any way. I don't object to you supporting him (that's your choice), but you really can't keep acting like you're a libertarian while doing so.

Just out of curiosity, why do people think thie country is in a terrible mess? The big crisis that everyone worries about right now is that a small number of people bought expensive homes that they couldn't afford and might have to move out... Other crises are that less than 10% of the population doesn't have access to health insurance (but still gets health care); our gasoline costs $3/gallon (still less than Europe); our rich are just too darn rich; we spend too much on entitlement programs; our poor suffer from obesity; etc...

Obviously things could be better, but the US is in pretty good shape overall. Look at other countries in the world.

Obama is good at rhetoric and is apparently charming and witty. That doesn't correlate with being competent, honest, or ethical. He may be those things, but too many people are assuming he is because he's charming.

Just out of curiosity, why do people think thie country is in a terrible mess?

I think that's why it's so Orwellian. Life is by all measures better for most American's than ever before.

But, there has been a steady media drumbeat to the contrary. If you watch Lou Dobbs you'd think that most Americans work at Wendy's for $5/hr. And if you watch Keith Oberman you'd be afraid to drive over any bridge in the US and assume that because of our penury towards public education that there are few literate adults left in the US....

  • Obviously things could be better, but the US is in pretty good shape overall.
  • My sentiment exactly. What the heck is so wrong with the country that massive CHANGE is the order of the day? Remember that "may you live in interesting times" was always a curse. Why shouldn't the President be concentrating on the interests of the nation as a whole? Those that, for example, can be agreed upon by the populace of this blog's comments section :-)

    So far my understanding of Obama's "change" was that in a nutshell it can be expressed by Robin Hood's motto -- "I'll take from the rich and give to the poor" -- improved by "and I'll save money for the rich while doing that". I ain't rich, but I still call bullshit.

    I can understand why somebody with libertarian leanings might think that Obama is the least bad candidate, considering the alternatives. And Goolsbee might indeed be a good influence, though once in office Obama might ignore him. But given Obama's complete lack of private sector experience and socialist instincts, I really cannot imagine he will support that many good policies.

    By the way, Soupy Sales, it's not Megan who has jungle fever -- it's Andrew Sullivan.

    I have to agree with Doug S. I don't see how a libertarian could support Obama. I understand that Republicans have hardly been spokesmen for limited government. However, the Democrat candidates this year favor greater government intrusion in the market and a similar level of intrusion on social issues (albeit on different issues). The deal breaker has to be universal health care. It boggles my mind to imagine that anyone who considers themselves libertarian-ish could support a candidate who favors drastically increasing federal regulation of the (already heavily regulated) health care markets.

    He's also, of course, sponsored a bill to institute "comparable worth."

    But hopefully he's being dishonest.

    IMHO, McCain isn't my ideal candidate, but far better than Obama. He probably doesn't walk around carrying a copy of "The Road to Serfdom", but he is unlikely to expand government involvement in the economy nor to make health care worse. He also is unlikely to make any major tax increases.

    Yeah, we'll still have a department of Agriculture and a department of Education. But, at least McCain is far less likely to expand them.

    I like Obama but all this hope and change stuff is making me uncomfortable. We don't need Moses. We need a competent President that has his/her priorities straight.

    Given the past seven years, a competent President with straight priorities would be a real change. One that's worth hoping for.

    The problem with Sullivan's anology is that Reagan didn't go to Washington to fix the country; he went there to fix the government, and I don't think either Sullivan or Obama think there's a difference.

    Frankly, his "All things are possible if the people are unified" rhetoric scares the #$%#@$ out of me. I should look more closely at his voting record and campaign promises, but right now I listen to him and hear Hugo Chavez with better economic advisors.

    tgb1000 wrote: I don't remember you being at all concerned about reality back in 2004 when you wrote that 10,000 word essay about why we should vote for Bush.

    You mean, the one where she listed the major policy positions she was concerned about, analyzed what each candidate had said they would do and the likelihood they could actually do it, weighed the tallies against each other, and concluded that she would vote for Bush because he was the lesser of two evils? That "why we should vote for Bush"?

    Careful with the twisting of context there, fella. Dubya has been accused of lying on lesser grounds that that.

    I have to agree with Doug S. I don't see how a libertarian could support Obama.

    I can't say that I have decided to support him, but he strikes me as significantly less statist than Hillary. And compared to McCain? McCain-Feingold is as anti-libertarian a piece of legislation as the come. And I expect Obama will be much less authoritarian and better on the war on drugs and police abuses than McCain. On the other hand, Obama looks to be much worse on trade.

    As usual, for libertarians there really are no good choices.

    You mean, the one where she listed the major policy positions she was concerned about, analyzed what each candidate had said they would do and the likelihood they could actually do it, weighed the tallies against each other, and concluded that she would vote for Bush because he was the lesser of two evils? That "why we should vote for Bush"?

    Agreed, I think it would be interesting if Megan did something similar on a point-by-point comparison between Obama and McCain. It seems that based on Megan’s previously stated positions on issues of government spending in general, agricultural subsidies, entitlement reform, and expanding free trade, John McCain should be her preference. Even on more “liberal” issues like anthropogenic climate change, immigration reform, and aggressive interrogation techniques, she ought to find McCain at least as palatable as Obama. Add to that her previously stated favoring of “divided government” (or is that argument only made when it helps a Democrat presidential candidate?), it seems to me that based on the issues McCain should be more favored than Obama.

    IMHO, McCain isn't my ideal candidate, but far better than Obama. He probably doesn't walk around carrying a copy of "The Road to Serfdom", but he is unlikely to expand government involvement in the economy nor to make health care worse. He also is unlikely to make any major tax increases.

    Did you read the WSJ yesterday? To wit:

    http://online.wsj.com/article/SB120294935869166831.html


    What do you think Bernanke has been doing the past few months? Dropping interest rates like a stone and those Fed "auctions".

    Slocum,

    McCain-Feingold is as anti-libertarian a piece of legislation as the come.

    Yeah, Obama hates that one and is going to see it repealed the moment he takes office.

    People who favor a state which recognizes any limits on it's power (don't even bother fantasizing about a President with a clear libertarian philosophy) really can't have any enthusiasm about voting for any of the people with a chance to win. There really is no point in lying to yourself; all three of the viable candidates essentially believe that there should be no limit to the scope of government power, and the scope of national government power at that.

    Sure, they have some differences regarding how that power should express itself on various issues, but fundamentally none of them would agree with the proposition that national government has borders which cannot be legitimately crossed, absent a Constitutional amendment. They all intend to acquire power, and to use that power to force their opponents to submit to their will, and they recognize zero, or extremely few, legal or institutional limits that cannot be legitimately crossed in pursuit of that goal. There is no self-limiting instinct in any of them; the only thing they will recognize as a constraint is a more powerful political coalition which rises to block their quest.

    If one is compelled to vote for one of these quasi-thugs, by all means do so, but there is no point in lying to yourself about what you are purchasing.

    a criticism of a political system that relies at least as much on completely empty promises as on actual likely policy prescriptions to choose its leaders--which is to say, all of them. The American system is not special in this regard.

    Megan, this is totally mystical and irrational talk. What kind of political system are you in favor of, here? What would you prefer? Casting wistful glances towards the far hills in the hopes that Albion lingers just oe'r the glistering horizon? Obama says he is going to "change things". You say "changing things" is an impossible dream. There is no factual content here on either side; you're just hazarding an aesthetic stance counter to his aesthetic stance.

    Obama has quite clear policy prescriptions. But you almost never write about them. Instead you write about the rhetoric in his speeches and complain that it's empty of policy prescriptions.

    In any case, European and in general parliamentary systems do in fact incorporate policy debate much more strongly as an element in campaigns. That's because in parliamentary systems leaders take office based on their party and thus legislative backing, so they're more likely to get their policy agendas passed. One result, however, is that in parliamentary systems governments tend to actually do things much more often than in the US; leaders take power with the legislative majority they need to pass their agenda, and the leader of the country is the leader of the ruling party. And I have a feeling that because activist government tends not to be to your liking, you actually DON'T like European-style politics with its substantive talk of real agendas more than American politics with its airy aesthetics.

    "I'm a libertarian who supports Obama because I don't believe what he says what he thinks."

    Do I have that about right, Megan?

    It is Megan? Or did my five-year-old son take control of this blog.


    Obama isn't exactly the candidate I would expect a libertarian to support (not that McCain is a dream libertarian candidate either, but I don't even think Obama is the "best of two (or three including Hillary) evils, from a libertarian perspective.

    ---

    Everything below is from http://www.barackobama.com/issues/
    I would provide the direct links to each, but I think this comment wont go through if I put in that many links.

    Obama's proposals include

    "Obama supports implementation of a market-based cap-and-trade system to reduce carbon emissions by the amount scientists say is necessary: 80 percent below 1990 levels by 2050."

    "Obama will require 36 billion gallons of renewable fuels to be included in the fuel supply by 2022 and will increase that to at least 60 billion gallons of advanced biofuels like cellulosic ethanol by 2030."

    "Obama will double fuel economy standards within 18 years..."

    "Provide a Living Wage..." (Unspecified but "living wage" implies a big increase, also he plans to index it to inflation, so its not just a temporary problem"

    "Reverse Bush Tax Cuts..." (in other words increase taxes)

    "Obama will make available a new national health plan to all Americans..."

    ""Create a Green Jobs Corps..."

    Slocum re: "McCain-Feingold is as anti-libertarian a piece of legislation as the come"

    I'm not sure I'd go that far, but it is noxious, and it is anti-liberty. OTOH Obama isn't campaigning against it (and neither is Hillary) so voting for them won't help get rid of it, so to an extent its sort of like a sunk cost. Also I'm not sure that it isn't outweighed by Obama's policies listed above.

    Wow... Obama is more dangerous than I thought...

    "Obama supports implementation of a market-based cap-and-trade system to reduce carbon emissions by the amount scientists say is necessary: 80 percent below 1990 levels by 2050."


    "Obama will require 36 billion gallons of renewable fuels to be included in the fuel supply by 2022 and will increase that to at least 60 billion gallons of advanced biofuels like cellulosic ethanol by 2030."

    "Obama will double fuel economy standards within 18 years..."

    Once elected, he's not planning on leaving... the only way he could possibly make sure a program lasted until 2050 is if he were still President...

    Are you Obama supporters ready for President-For-Life Obama?

    Charles Krauthammer

    Obama has an astonishingly empty paper trail. He’s going around issuing promissory notes on the future that he can’t possibly redeem. Promises to heal the world with negotiations with the likes of Iran’s Ahmadinejad. Promises to transcend the conundrums of entitlement reform that require real and painful trade-offs and that have eluded solution for a generation. Promises to fund his other promises by a rapid withdrawal from an unpopular war — with the hope, I suppose, that the (presumed) resulting increase in American prestige would compensate for the chaos to follow.

    Democrats are worried that the Obama spell will break between the time of his nomination and the time of the election, and deny them the White House. My guess is that he can maintain the spell just past Inauguration Day. After which will come the awakening. It will be rude.

    I don't know why people like Megan can't see what an empty suit Obama is. I guess being a mesmerizing speaker is enough for some people.

    This seems as relevant now as in 1975, from Elizabeth Hall's interview of Idries Shah in Psychology Today:
    "People are always looking for leaders; that does not mean that this is the time for a leader. The problems that a leader would be able to resolve have not been identified. Nor does the clamor mean that those who cry out are suitable followers. Most of the people who demand a leader seem to have some baby's idea of what a leader should do. The idea that a leader will walk in and we will all recognize him and follow him and everybody will be happy strikes me as a strangely immature atavism. Most of these people, I believe, want not a leader but excitement. I doubt that those who cry the loudest would obey a leader if there was one."

    WOW! Having just read that Megan supports Obama, my respect and admiration for her just dropped to the basement. Talk about a choice that runs 180 degrees counter to everything she says she stands for. wow.


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