The jobs report is, as Felix Salmon notes, pretty dreadful. The payroll and the household surveys agree that the number of jobs fell; and since a large number of people left the labor force, the level of unemployment might well be worse than it looks. I think it's rather unlikely that we'll skirt a recession--if we aren't in one already.
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The numbers indeed sound poor, but keep in mind that they're often revised after the fact. Of course a revision could make them even worse.
And the unemployment numbers typically only reflect folks currently drawing unemployment -- the newly unemployed. Once it runs out, you can still be looking for work but uncounted. At most, you show up in a drop in the "workforce participation" rate.
Not to mention that you can be doing odd jobs to get by, but out of regular employment, and not get counted. In short, unemployment numbers are not among the most solid of the statistics about the state of the economy.
"mildly grim"
That just sounds funny. Was that on purpose?
Would departing illegal immigrants factor into this equation at all?
Didn't I just read that the first of the boomer generation had received her first Social Security check? That must be part of this workforce decline, how much I don't know.
I do believe this will put more pressure on the immigration issue just in time for the election.
Re: And the unemployment numbers typically only reflect folks currently drawing unemployment
The above is not true. The unemployment numbers are not based on the collection of benefits. They are based on a household survey in which individuals are asked A) Are you employed at least one hour per week for wages and B) If not are you looking for work? Anyone who answers No to A and Yes to B is counted as unemployed. The main area for fudging can be seen in the first question: one hour a week counts as employed, which allows an awful lot of underemployment to slip in under the radar. To the extent that employers cut back hours rather than cutting workers the unemployment stats do not accurately reflect what is happening in the labor economy.`