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28 Mar 2008 12:26 pm

I don't know many economists who respect John Kenneth Galbraith's professional work; he tended to substitute wit for rigor, and the major economic model he proposed1, the theory of countervailing force, isn't looking so hot. On the other hand, almost all economists wish, to the extent of heartsickness, that they could write that well. And while the theory behind his economic history is often not quite right, the storytelling is absolutely first rate. You can't get a better popular overview of 1929 than The Great Crash, even though A Monetary History of the United States is probably a better way to understand the thing.

In the New York Sun this week, Ed Glaeser, the leading light of real-estate economics, had a lovely piece on the 50th anniversary of The Affluent Society:

Galbraith's advocacy of public spending aimed at reducing inequality and improving infrastructure helped usher in the 1960s. Lyndon Johnson's war on poverty was decidedly Galbraithian. While the New Deal social programs were born of economic desperation, Johnson's social spending reflected the confidence of prosperity, just as Galbraith had foreseen. But after 1969, the American public gradually turned against Galbraithian social policy. By 1980, Galbraith's arch-nemesis, Milton Friedman, had found an intellectual home in the White House. In the 1990s, even Democrats embraced private wealth over public spending. But in 2008, "The Affluent Society" seems relevant once more. As the political pendulum swings left, candidates once again call for a more vibrant state to right social wrongs. The excesses of the 1960s are forgotten and once again, the government is seen as society's savior. For people of all political stripes, it is worthwhile returning to "The Affluent Society," and pondering what Galbraith got right and what he got wrong.

While I am a staunch supporter of free markets, I agree with Galbraith that there is much the public sector needs to do. Private firms do not automatically provide safe streets, good roads, and clean water. Even more important, Galbraith was dead right in arguing that we need more effective schools. Human capital is our best tool against poverty and economic stagnation.

Galbraith's great failure was that he never really understood how much society is strengthened by a free and competitive private sector. "The Affluent Society" argues that a lack of regulation made American homes inferior to those in European social democracies. That view was wrong in 1958 and is completely untenable today. American housing is the best in the world, and the weaknesses of the housing market reflect too much, not too little, regulation, especially those rules that stymie construction and make housing unaffordable. While Galbraith was right that some social problems do need a stronger public sector, his analysis would read better today if he had also appreciated the tremendous vitality that comes with economic freedom.


1rather than what you might call "conspiracy sociology"

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Comments (49)

Here is a little challenge.

If you can get through the next five years without writing, even once, a sentence of the form "American [x] is the best in the world," without immediately backing that claim up with two paragraphs of rigorous, skeptical argumentation and evidence, then you will be allowed to continue writing.

If not, you will be required to sit on the Thinking Chair until you can explain why your behavior is wrong.

Brooksfoe, having interviewed Glaeser, read some of his papers, and seen him speak multiple times, I am pretty happy to take his word on it. He is probably literally the foremost expert on real estate economics in the world.

It's an op-ed. As I think you know, space constraints and the need for a strong thesis make it hard to provide the argumentation you're demanding. I would far rather take Ed Glaeser's expert opinion than any number of authors cherry-picking statistics to "prove" that we're the best--and so, I bet, would any number of very liberal economists.

How many of the "Galbraithian" insights that Glaeser cites were not it, say, "The Wealth of Nations"?

that is, "in "The Wealth of Nations"?

Brooksfoe, I'll turn your challenge against you by requiring that you and your fellows on the port side do the same thing every time you reference or imply "the interests of society". In fact, this applies to the farther-out reaches on the starboard side as well.

I didn't mean "you", since obviously you didn't write that sentence. I should have said "one". In this case, that would be Glaeser, who, regardless of his eminence, should never write this way. In fact, it should be a general rule that no one is ever allowed to make this sort of claim about their own country without reams of immediate evidentiary backup. It is particularly important when using vague and subjective adjectives such as "best", which leave the reader with no hint as to what other data one might look to in order to test the claim.

Was this really written this week?

"the weaknesses of the housing market reflect too much, not too little, regulation, especially those rules that stymie construction and make housing unaffordable"

See, this is why I snark. Because I see this and I know I write much better. Why do we settle?

Freddiemac, you need to be familiar with Glaeser's work, one of the major focuses of which is the way that zoning drives prices up to unaffordable levels in dense areas . . . which is certainly arguably one of the major contributors to this problem. California, exhibit one, is one of the hardest hit.

Megan,

While I admit that I am not familiar with Glaeser's work, don't the facts on the ground contradict this sentiment? All we have to do is track new home starts over the last 3 years.

Isn't the high cost of a SFR in SoCal caused by geography? Ocean on one side, mountains on the other. Without dense zoning, SoCal filled up available land. Supply and demand thus dictates 800 sq. ft. in Compton will sell for 400K. Similarly real estate in Manhattan is high, regardless of regulation. 1 million people on a small island will make for high prices, it is basic supply and demand.

And then there are the other 4: Nevada, Michigan, Ohio, and Florida.

Two things: Glaeser is not necessarily talking about the mortgage market, and second, no. The normal response to tight land (think Manhattan or Hong Kong) is to build upwards. Zoning in SoCal prevents this.

"American housing is the best in the world": that depends on your metric. Apparently American Housing is too flimsy to stop a 22 bullet when someone tries a little projectile hole-drilling. As one does.

"The Affluent Society" showed clearly, in chapter after chapter, with many examples, that the market side of our economy produced wealth and that the government side produced squalor. For reasons that escape me, these observations led the author to urge that we expand government and restrict markets.

Having lived in both the US and Scandinavia (Norway and Sweden), I can say with absolute confidence that Scandinavian housing is far better, except for maybe the upper middle class and the upper class.

Ok, I'll bite:

How is the housing market different from the mortgage market at this time? Aren't MBS as hard to sell as a home in Stockton? Sure they are two different things, but right now they are both in the toilet, so why split hairs?

Is SoCal zoning to blame? L.A. is one of the densest cities in America, so I find that answer insufficient.

I tend to think that the lack of regional regulation is a problem (though not the only problem), where new suburbs try to lure residents to move out from the core city and cause an equity slide. Then new suburbs drain equity from old suburbs. Otherwise what we see in places like Cleveland is a lack of regulation in new construction causing localized equity slides. One need only browse REO properties in any given state to see this.

I wonder if the reason so many pundits (including, apparently, Glaeser) think "more effective schools" is such a panacea is because they went to elite private high schools where everyone was of above average intelligence and bound for college. That's not the real world though. In most American public high schools, there is one group that goes to college and graduates, another group that goes to college and drops or fails out after a year, a third group that barely graduates, and a fourth group that fails or drops out of high school. We're not all above average; in fact, half of us are below average.

This reminds me of David Ignatius's column yesterday ("Pennsylvania is for Globalization Optimists") where he wrote that in Pennsylvania, by 2014,

manufacturing jobs will decline by 19.5 percent, including a further 22 percent drop in the iron and steel sector, a 25 percent decline in motor-vehicle parts and a 21 percent fall in industrial machinery.

But, not to worry because,

The new jobs will come in areas such as professional and technical services (up 17 percent by 2014), computer systems design (up 30 percent), wireless telephone (up 30 percent) and data processing (up 32 percent). This transformation is evident in Pennsylvania data recording gains in wages and salaries from 2003 to 2005. Pay rose 20 percent for information technology managers, 35 percent for biotech engineers, 24 percent for computer researchers.

Sounds great, but this misses a point that would be blindingly obvious to anyone who went to an average public high school: the Pennsylvanians who were just smart enough to graduate high school and were able to get high-paying jobs at the steel plant with their high school diplomas can't transform themselves into biotech engineers, even with "more effective schools".

Having lived in both the US and Scandinavia (Norway and Sweden), I can say with absolute confidence that Scandinavian housing is far better, except for maybe the upper middle class and the upper class.

Out of climactic necessity, no doubt.

the weaknesses of the housing market reflect too much, not too little, regulation, especially those rules that stymie construction and make housing unaffordable.

I thought we had a huge oversupply of new homes on the market. How does that reflect "stymie[d] construction?" It's your cherished market at work. Supply exceeds demand.

It seems to me the present housing crisis was caused by a LACK of regulation in the financial sector, not too much regulation of the housing sector. I don't think you can blame Galbraith for that.

The normal response to tight land (think Manhattan or Hong Kong) is to build upwards. Zoning in SoCal prevents this.

That may be true (aren't there legitimate concerns about building skyscraper housing units in areas prone to strong earthquakes and active vulcanism (farther north)), but zoning is a regulation that resulted from societal pressure to control land use, not out of desire to control how homes are constructed. I don't think you can hold up zoning as an example of Galbraithian overregulation and failure either.

I guess I'll have to read up on Galbraith and see where he argues against all free markets. Of course, my conception of a "free market" doesn't exclude regulation; to me, a regulated "free market" is still a free market. That may offend you laissez-faire types as nonsensical but the universe is full of paradoxes.

Does anyone besides me see the irony of sticking this politicized-to-the-gills hack up as someone to be listened to almost immediately after a screed about 'liberal' professors who bring their ideology into the classroom?


Oh, and for the record, Galbraith was dead-on right in his theories of countervailing powers. Economists don't tend to like it, or find much use for it because a)it's hard to quantify and treat as a mathematical model, and b)it goes against the current propaganda that economic theorizations occur in a political vacuum.

I am a yallah dawg Democrat and have leftwinger on my medic-alert bracelet but I do have lots of respect for conservatives of good sense and good heart. For one thing, they're very very rare--fewer than Pandas in the wild! For another thing, a considerable percentage of them are my family members. And another one is Our Meghan.

Here's what I took away from reading 'Affluent Society' (so long ago it was probably the first paperback edition): That for the first time in human history the 'problem of scarcety' was solved. By which he meant that homo sapiens had learned to caress mother earth so that she would feed and clothe us all; no one needs be hungry. That any desirable product could be manufactured in such profusion that we all could have cars and houses and TVs and whatever else we chose to make a market for. And that this had changed the nature of society. That henceforth, those who had the capital (financial and otherwise) to control production did not hold the rest of us in the palm of their hand.

I was a slip of a lad at the time and don't remember 'countervailing force' at all. And maybe the remembered lesson is not original to Galbraith nor his main point in the book. Prob'ly ought to reread it.

But the thing I remembered still seems true; we-as-a-society no longer have to bow before the rich few.

I remember this whenever I hear the name J P Morgan and realize that billions of our national wealth are being directed into the structure that he founded lest the 'financial markets' suffer the dread fate of being 'dislocated'.

From (the much-reviled) Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia:

Edward Ludwig "Ed" Glaeser (born May 1, 1967) is an economist at Harvard University. He was educated at The Collegiate School in New York City before obtaining his B.A. in economics from Princeton University and his PhD in economics from the University of Chicago. Glaeser joined the faculty of Harvard in 1993, where he is currently Fred and Eleanor Glimp Professor at the Department of Economics and Director of the Taubman Center for State and Local Government, and the Director of the Rappaport Institute for Greater Boston (both at the Kennedy School of Government), in addition to being an editor of the Quarterly Journal of Economics. Glaeser's connections with both Chicago and Harvard makes him a linkage between the Chicago School and the Cambridge School of Economics.

I don't think he's a "politicized hack." I have my doubts about Mankiw, however.

The saddest thing to me is, Glaeser is younger than I am.

Does anyone besides me see the irony of sticking this politicized-to-the-gills hack

Citations, please.

Point one: Chicago School. 'Nuff said. Point two: American housing the "best"? By what metric? What evidence? Point three: (Let's quote it this time) "American housing is the best in the world, and the weaknesses of the housing market reflect too much, not too little, regulation, especially those rules that stymie construction and make housing unaffordable".

The man isn't living on the same planet as me. When he gets facts as basic and obvious as this wrong, then yes, he's a hack.

You can argue, perhaps, that this is an op-ed piece, that he's constrained by space; that only means he should have had the sense to leave out sentences like that, not that he's free to insert them and not support them.

When William F Buckly was asked how his life would have been different if he had been born a woman, he answered - “I would have seduced John Kenneth Galbraith and saved the world a lot of misery.”

freddiemac - Re:
Isn't the high cost of a SFR in SoCal caused by geography? Ocean on one side, mountains on the other. Without dense zoning, SoCal filled up available land. Supply and demand thus dictates 800 sq. ft. in Compton will sell for 400K.

The important part there is "without dense zoning". Zoning and other restrictions lowered housing density.

Similarly real estate in Manhattan is high, regardless of regulation.

True, but that doesn't mean that regulation doesn't increase the price (although I would guess not as much as in SoCal, considering Manhattan does have high densities)

it should be a general rule that no one is ever allowed to make this sort of claim about their own country without reams of immediate evidentiary backup

Well, that will sure help kill off the newspapers!

Tim,

Zoning in Compton lowered density. However, L.A. proper is one of the most dense cities in America. And you can find properties there for under 300k. Therefore I find the lack of housing argument and the lack of density argument a tad bit unconvincing, and likewise that housing would be even more awesome if only there were less regulation. I have to ask how much regulation is to fault for Pulte and Toll Bros. building low density housing?

Isn't all real estate local?

SoV wrote: The man isn't living on the same planet as me. When he gets facts as basic and obvious as this wrong, then yes, he's a hack.

So in other words, no cites, merely a counter op-ed of your own. That's fine; many of our views ARE shaped by experiences. But this will be duly noted the next time you shove someone else's opinion up against the wall for not whipping stastical rabbits out of hats on call.

That this is an insult to Mr. Glaeser assumes scentofviolets is living on the same planet as the rest of us.

"
If we run into such debts as that we must be taxed in our meat and in our drink, in our necessaries and our comforts, in our labors and our amusements, for our callings and our creeds, as the people of England are, our people, like them, must come to labor sixteen hours in the twenty-four, and give the earnings of fifteen of these to the government for their debts and daily expenses;

And the sixteenth being insufficient to afford us bread, we must live, as they do now, on oatmeal and potatoes, have no time to think, no means of calling the mismanagers to account; but be glad to obtain subsistence by hiring ourselves to rivet their chains around the necks of our fellow sufferers;

And this is the tendency of all human governments. A departure from principle in one instance becomes a precedent for a second, that second for a third, and so on 'til the bulk of the society is reduced to be mere automatons of misery, to have no sensibilities left but for sinning and suffering...

And the forehorse of this frightful team is public debt. Taxation follows that, and in its train wretchedness and oppression.

~Thomas Jefferson


More 'Government', from whatever vector, only promises more Misery.



the weaknesses of the housing market reflect too much, not too little, regulation, especially those rules that stymie construction and make housing unaffordable

As someone whose career is spent solving regulatory problems in California, I can say with personal knowledge that this statement is plain nuts. The current weaknesses in the housing market are attributable virtually entirely to the utter failure of the states, including California, to regulate adequately the mortgage origination market, and of the feds to regulate the shadow financial market that securitized fraudulent mortgages.

Now, the high cost of housing in Southern California BEFORE the huge runup in prices in the 2000s is attributable, in part, to zoning and environmental compliance laws. But the studies I've seen mostly attribute high costs to the fact that lots of people live here, lots of people move here, and the people already here trend young, so they're having kids, who eventually want to move out.

But hey, we live in a democracy. Want to live in a town without zoning, move to Houston. Want to live in Southern California, accept high prices or long commutes.

Returning to the post, the notion that housing prices are dropping due to land use regulation is absolutely flat backwards. Land use regulation limits supply; weaknesses in prices demonstrates an excess of supply. Less does not equal more.

That both Megan and Gleaser get this wrong is (a) predictable [regulation = bad]; and (b) pretty disappointing.

So in other words, no cites, merely a counter op-ed of your own. That's fine; many of our views ARE shaped by experiences. But this will be duly noted the next time you shove someone else's opinion up against the wall for not whipping stastical rabbits out of hats on call.


Posted by anony_mouse_

What part of " . . . the weaknesses of the housing market reflect too much, not too little, regulation, . . ." did you not see the first time?

This is bizarre, in fact, goes against the prevailing wisdom of even the Sabbath gasbags. In fact, just about everyone agrees that the problem is that there was _not_ enough regulation. I suggest you go over to the blog 'Calculated Risk' if you want more details.

That Tanta is one sharp cookie.

Francis,

Please correct me if I'm totally off base, but my understanding was that heavy land use regulation (as in SoCal) has 2 effects on housing prices:

First, it tends to make prices higher because it restricts supply.

Second, it reduces elasticity. Because it is very difficult to build new units, prices will rise sharply in response to strong demand. (Without the zoning regs, some of the demand could be satisfied by increased supply) If demand slackens, these prices will come down just as quickly as they went up. (This is more or less what we saw over the past few years)

So zoning not only causes higher prices, it also increases volatility.

Presumably, if California had less stringent zoning, current housing prices would be lower. But we would not have seen the sharp declines of '07 either, because prices would not have ramped up as sharply in '05 and '06 as they did under the existing regime.

But that's just arguing a what-if scenario with no way to confirm it.

The _fact_ of the matter today is that massive, systemic, ongoing regulation is precisely what landed us in this fix today.

Let me propose an alternate scenario: much more stringent regulation such that there was no subprime crises, and hence no credit/hedge/non-standard banking crisis. But the zoning regulations stay the same.

Does anyone doubt that we would be in much better shape in the latter scenario than the former?

Anyone?

That should read: "The _fact_ of the matter today is that massive, systemic, ongoing de-regulation is precisely what landed us in this fix today."

heedless,

You have it backwards:
"Second, it reduces elasticity. Because it is very difficult to build new units, prices will rise sharply in response to strong demand. (Without the zoning regs, some of the demand could be satisfied by increased supply) If demand slackens, these prices will come down just as quickly as they went up. (This is more or less what we saw over the past few years)

So zoning not only causes higher prices, it also increases volatility."

It increases elasticity, not decreases. If there is a sudden spike in consumer demand, and with no regulation to slow it, builders will create an oversupply of housing. When the demand decreases, the oversupply will cause a huge downward spike. Regulation reduces volatility, not increases, because if there is a decrease in demand there is a smaller gradient between the lower demand and the existing home supply.

It is interesting that some are trying to argue that there isn't enough housing. I'm trying really hard not to snark on the ever sensitive Megan, but it is completely counter factual.

http://www.inman.com/news/2008/02/3/supply-new-homes-sale-hits-27-year-high

Supply of homes was at a 27 year high last month.

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/21548791/

a year ago Toll Brothers had too much inventory that wouldn't sell

http://research.investopedia.com/news/IA/2007/Toll_Brothers_Working_Off_its_Inventory_TOL.aspx

The fact that I am told that the problem with housing is that it is constricting supply and there is too little housing is crazy. Not only that but that this is "expert opinion"? And the only shred of evidence that can be found is that median prices for SFR in the second largest metro regions in the country, and the 3rd densest urbanized area is high? This is incredulous stuff. Basic econ: supply and demand. Supply outpaced demand, now home prices are plummeting.

I'd like to echo John McC above regarding how I remember Galbraith, though I do remember countervailing power. But Galbraith's fundamental point about the diminution of scarcity, a critical assumption of neo-classical marginal economics, still rings true. As does the his observation (don't know that he was the first, just where I first read it), that companies in the real world do not responmd to exogenously determined tastes, preferences, needs and wants, but rather they strive to create, foster and develop them. Neither of these is anti-capitalist or anti-economics, both of them are startlingly obvious, and in my mind Galbraith deserves much of the credit for presenting them.

Returning to the post, the notion that housing prices are dropping due to land use regulation is absolutely flat backwards. Land use regulation limits supply; weaknesses in prices demonstrates an excess of supply. Less does not equal more.
You're missing a step. Housing prices are dropping because there was a bubble. There was a bubble because housing prices were too high. Housing prices were too high because land use regulation limited supply.

There aren't "weaknesses in prices," except relative to the top of the bubble.

Let me propose an alternate scenario: much more stringent regulation such that there was no subprime crises, and hence no credit/hedge/non-standard banking crisis. But the zoning regulations stay the same.

Does anyone doubt that we would be in much better shape in the latter scenario than the former?

Yes. Not leftists who worship government, and not government bureaucrats who are self-interested. But other people.

Heedless,

Thanks for the note on elasticity - I could not understand Megan's point (greater regulation -> bubbles more likely) prior to reading your comment.

But there is no need to keep the discussion theoretical. And comments about California are cherry-picking. Here's a map of foreclosure rates across the country. I don't see an obvious correlation of the problems with regulation levels. Is Nevada heavily regulated? Texas?

And to Freddiemac's point unregulated areas might experience less price upswing but should be more likely to suffer from oversupply / abandoned housing.

Tom

Right Tom G. If there was an undersupply of housing in California, then why are foreclosures so high? What does the supply and demand curve tell us will happen?

David Nieporent,
If housing prices went up because supply was constrained, then why are prices crashing now, since new home starts are so low?

http://money.cnn.com/2007/08/16/news/economy/housing_starts/index.htm

This was almost a year ago, new home starts are even lower, and prices keep falling.

Megan I am trying really hard not to snark, but there are so many comments that expose a complete ignorance of econ 101...and you wonder why conservative and libertarians are derided as cranks. If not outright lies, then it is intellectual dishonesty combined with blinding ignorance.

Tom G,

I actually agree with you that regulation is (at worst) a minor contributor to the finanical mess we're in.

Mostly, people took out loans they couldn't afford (stupid), and banks signed off on the loans even though they knew the proud new homeowners couldn't afford them (stupider). Then the banks bundled bad loans with good loans and sold them off to investors who had branched off from the bridge buying business (stupid beyond my ability to say).

Your map shows the state by state concentration of the first two types of stupid. Land use regulations had a marginal effect on this pattern, (There may be and even greater number of fools in Texas than indicated, and Californians are slightly less foolish than they appear) but they were not the principal cause. .

If it appeared that I was arguing otherwise, then I apologize for being unclear. Zoning did not drive the housing crisis, it simply made it somewhat worse.

The normal response to tight land (think Manhattan or Hong Kong) is to build upwards. Zoning in SoCal prevents this.

Posted by Megan McArdle | March 28, 2008 1:43 PM

Again, I take it on faith that this guy has a good answer to this, since I don't know anything about this subject and he's an expert, but -- the ability to build upwards explains why housing is so much more affordable in Manhattan and Hong Kong than in SoCal?

???

Freddiemac,

Thanks for the improptue economics lesson, but I have bit of student feedback:

- I think you meant to say "supply and demand curves. There are 2 of them, after all. But you knew that.

- Are you really suggesting that an artificial restriction of supply will decrease price volatility? You might want to revisit that point.

You wrote: "If there was an undersupply of housing in California, then why are foreclosures so high? What does the supply and demand curve tell us will happen?"

- I apologize for my snark above. I was wrong. You used a singular verb for "curve" so you must have meant that there is just one. I must admit that I find your economics baffling. Pehaps you would elaborate?

- Supply and demand can't tell us much about foreclosures. They govern the interaction between price and quantity, but they don't govern irresponsible financial decisions, such as buying a house you can't afford at the peak of a bubble. All I can tell you is that if you place restrictions on supply (like zoning regulations) you will make such bubbles more pronounced.

The problem of the mortgage/housing crisis arose because short-term interest rates were artificially lowered to ridiculous levels and held there for years. This was done by the US government. This cheap money increased the demand for real estate, and, in time, increased the supply as well, but there was always a lag in the supply up until the point where the increasingly cheap credit came to an end. The end of cheap credit cannot be avoided without destroying the currency, thus the mortgage crisis could not be avoided without avoiding the artificially cheap credit in the first place.

On land use restrictions:

These raise the cost of land, in a real estate bubble and outside it, even in a crash, all things else being equal.

On lending regulations:

Yes, standards for lending could have been higher, but consider this- such regulations would have run counter to the actual intentions of the party that artificially suppressed the interest rates to begin with. You don't suppress short-term rates only to counteract this by making it harder to lend/borrow. If you want more prudent lending and borrowing, then stop artificially suppressing short-term interest rates. Also, stop bailing out the the imprudent.

Moral hazard has created this mess, and nearly everyone on both sides of the political divide are prescribing more of the same. A choice will be forced eventually (maybe soon, maybe later, but certain to occur)- either the Federal Reserve will have to save the currency called the dollar, and let the losses that have accumulated be realized and recognized, or the debts will have to be inflated away thus socializing all the losses and destroying the dollar in the process. Pick your poison- you have already purchased it.

New York built up before zoning restrictions were hijacked by homeowners to increase their house values . . . Glaeser puts that change in the 1960s and 1970s. LA hit its natural limits right around that time. New York now has restrictive zoning, and various other practices, that make it hard to build up, or indeed, build at all; my understanding is that development in Manhattan south of 96th street takes about 20 years from first conception to completion. My neighborhood, for example, was zone for fifteen stories, and anyone who tried to build even that high got trapped in endless community board meetings full of angry people who lived on lower floors and thought that they had a civil right to lots of light.

Freddiemac,

Why would an undersupply prevent foreclosures?

My thinking:
1. Zoning can raise the prices of housing in an area.
2. Separately a bubble can come along - driving prices even higher, encouraging irresponsible lending/borrowing ...
3. When the bubble bursts, homeowners unable to keep up with their payments are also unable to sell and end up being foreclosed as priced retun to their pre-bubble, but still high levels.

Tom

If it appeared that I was arguing otherwise, then I apologize for being unclear. Zoning did not drive the housing crisis, it simply made it somewhat worse.

Which brings us back full circle - this 'leading light of real-estate economics', Ed Glaeser, is a hack(at least on this subject), and certainly shouldn't be taken seriously as a critic of Galbraith[1].

[1]I hope I've made this clear, but in case I haven't, it's certainly possible to argue that Galbraith wasn't a very good economist, or that his contributions were minimal (it's also equally possible to argue the contrary). I'm just saying that people like Glaeser aren't the ones to be doing the criticizing, given what folly their partisan bias has already caused them to write.

LA hit its natural limits right around that time.

I don't even know what this sentence means. Orange County, which today has more jobs than San Francisco, was still orange groves in the 60s and 70s. Burbank? Sound stages. Century City? More sound stages. Freeway infrastructure? Very different. Inland Empire? Mostly desert.

ya know, Megan, you'd be a lot more credible if you'd admit every now and again that you don't know everything about everything. You clearly don't know what you're talking about when you discuss Southern California real estate.

Remember that post about humility? Ignorance isn't so bad. Zeus knows that I for one am profoundly ignorant on a vast range of topics. But refusal to learn is that bad. As is refusal to admit ignorance.

If housing prices went up because supply was constrained, then why are prices crashing now, since new home starts are so low?
You do understand that there are two factors, supply and demand, that go into prices, right?

I'm sorry but in my experience American houses are far far far below Northern European ones in quality and durability - and in addition to dubious materials they are often badly designed and badly built.

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