I'd like to hear what you think about the progress in Iraq, and about the lack of media coverage of that progress. Do you support Obama's position that we should still pull out quickly?
How about the sunny afternoon? It's been 104+ degrees for the last five dayshere in the desert, and shows no sign of abating. Add to that the detail that our mountain is on fire, which is making me believe I'm an athiest in hell.
Why so called "progressives", particularly in the eviromental arena, oppose virtually all of the "progress" of the last 100 years and would love to return to the halcyon days of 1900----no private cars, compact urban growth without sprawl, streetcars, bikes and walking as the predominant transportation modes, lots of old growth timber and wetlands, etc. Why don't they proudly proclaim that they are "regressives"?
Before it's too late, Obama's father day speech. CPI bias, now that you have a wider audience. Also, I second Mr. Cowen's motion for your evil twin. Give her a very British name, something that sounds like the owner of a large estate in famine-stricken Ireland...
How should we think about the environmental costs of commercial flying? It seems as though the average cost is high, but the marginal cost is quite low. When I fly across the country, it doesn't cause any extra flights, it just makes the one I'm on slightly heavier. Yes, the increased revenues might give the airline an incentive to increase the number of flights, but this effect seems very weak - much lower than the average cost of my flight (the consumption of fuel divided by the number of passengers). Maybe I'm just miscalculating?
Can you comment on your fellow blogger's enthusiasm about intercity rail, and how do you feel about our transit options in general, in the long term? Is massive investment of taxpayer money into building new, less oil-dependent transit infrastucture worth it?
Excel Data here (see Product Supplied, Finished Motor Gasoline).
The EIA defines product supplied as the appropriate measure of consumption:
Products Supplied-- Approximately represents consumption of petroleum products because it measures the disappearance of these products from primary sources, i.e., refineries, natural gas processing plants, blending plants, pipelines, and bulk terminals. In general, product supplied of each product in any given period is computed as follows: field production, plus refinery production, plus imports, plus unaccounted for crude oil, (plus net receipts when calculated on a PAD District basis), minus stock change, minus crude oil losses, minus refinery inputs, minus exports.
Using 6 week moving average, I estimated gasoline consumption is down less than 1% from last year.
How about, given that flying is much more direct, is rail still more efficient? Cost effective?
Once, I looked into taking the train from Detroit to NYC. The price was higher than the plane ticked, it required several changes, and would have required an extra day off of work.
1. Why isn't your tax plan consumption based? (IRA's without restrictions)
2. How can flying across the country cost an order of magnitude less than paying for the gas of a SUV and be more environmentally harmful? Surely, the energy in jet fuel must be somewhat closely priced to the energy in car fuel.
Please revisit the Obama/corporate income tax thread - and tell us why you prefer Obama's statement that he is having his team "look into" reducing corporate rate (but has not proposed any reduction in rates yet), whereas McCain actually has proposed reducing corporate income tax rates.
I'm not voting for McCain, but your Obama fanboi-ism is kinda pathetic. When Obama talks about renegotiating NAFTA, you abandon the principle of free trade. When McCain actually proposes reducing corporate income tax rates, while Obama just talks about the "possibility" of reducing rates, you still prefer Obama's position. Can't you find an issue where Obama is actually better on the issue than McCain on which to base your fanboi support?
What have you heard about Obama's plans regarding the death tax. I'm more interested in this in that I'm expecting a sizable inheritance from Mom in the next few years (she's 79 yrs. 4 mos.) and I'm counting the days. Well not literally counting the days but I'm thinking about them.
2. How can flying across the country cost an order of magnitude less than paying for the gas of a SUV and be more environmentally harmful?
A couple of notes: I see a general average of about $400-500 for an xc flight, while a 4000mi round trip in a 12mpg SUV would be 333gal @$4/gal, or $1332. So a good deal less, but nowhere near an order of magnitude.
Comapring mileage, a given cross-country flight (using 737-800 fuel burn, assuming 95% filled seats) averages between 72 and 80 mpg of Jet-A, on a per-seat basis (depending on winds, W or E-bound, etc). So, unless you were packing >6 people into a 12mpg SUV, the plane is the greener option.* Jet-A is running about $6/gal right now, giving a total round-trip per-seat fuel cost of $320, give or take. The airlines really aren't asking much of a premium right now...
*-ignoring 2nd-order effects of high-altitude CO2 emission, which is probably bad due to reduced gas exchange with the oceans, and contrail formation, which could be either good or bad depending on which study you read.
Other than Reason magazine and this blog, what do you find are the best sources for libertarian thought? Media outlets? Personalities? Authors? Who's the best libertarian thinker we don't know about out there?
Can you click my name-link, watch the short Bloggingheads.tv video, and tell us what you think about Horgan and Johnson's notion of a sort of "economics uncertainty principal"?
Hey cdg
Maybe you can answer a question for me. I read the other day that gasoline prices are up 21.2% over the past year (seems low). The same day I read that aviation fuel is up 80-100% over the last year. Can these both be correct, can aviation fuel have increased in cost that much more than gasoline or is this some type of temporary blip?
cdg
Sorry. The above post is sort of rude. My apologies, it was unintentional. I've simply been puzzling for the past few days over the seeming discrepancy and from your post above, it sounded like you might know, and so I wrote something hastily and posted without thinking. So please let me rephrase, "If you happen to know, would you please post a reply. Thanks."
No problem. When I look at the AAA site I find, as of 17 Jun:
-Reg unleaded: $4.075
-1 year ago : $3.002
-Diff : $1.073 or 35.7% rise
Compared to Jet-A from the IATA Jet Fuel Price Monitor which reports a 1-year rise of 90.5% and a current global average price of $3.971/gal (The $6 from the previous post was from calling a local airport - porbably a premium for buying small quantities at a general aviation airport).
So, slightly different numbers than what you saw, but still a big split. Crude is up much more than gasoline, as well. I'd assume that demand differences and refinery production play a part, but I didn't stay at a Holiday Inn Express last night and won't pretend to macroeconomic insight I don't have.
Do other nations outsource their military support operations to such as Halliburton and KBR? If so, do they pay as much? What is the war in Iraq costing by comparison to erstwhile engagements when troops mostly did their own KP? Are we getting a deal, or is this privatized arrangement as much of a rip-off as it seems?
cdg
Thanks very much. The numbers I saw were from two different NYTimes articles and I was skeptical, but sounds like they were more or less accurate. Maybe I'll poke around the American Petroleum Institute website to see if I can find an explanation. But in any event, thanks again.
How much growth in the mideast is attibutable to the rise in the price of oil, how much to normal growth, and how much to the removal of the Saddam regime?
Summer is just around the corner. Could you give us 5 books we should read during our down time? They don't have to be recent or focus on any particular subject. Just 5 good books.
Ooh! I have another one, what will be the additional accounting and auditing cost of cap and trade and carbon tax systems?
Accounting and auditing use up a lot of our intellectual capital, much of this is for tax purposes. Despite this vast amount of resources, tax fraud seems to be relatively common. How much more would be needed control carbon flows?
I don't think it would be insignificant. Think of how difficult it would be to tax or set the price of cocaine if we kept it illegal and continued on with the drug war. You can't set a price without accountablility.
Back when you were offering to make pound cake or answer questions for readers who contributed to relief for Katrina victims, we made a big donation to that cause, but I don't remember ever getting around to asking any of the questions I was thinking of then. At least two are still relevant:
1. What would be the cost-benefit analysis to work through whether it makes sense to sign up for cryonics or not?
2. Since our donation was matched by Boeing, its only fair to ask what would be your advice to Boeing for how the company cound best move forward?* Feel free to take on whatever sub-part of that question you want. Candidates include how to pursue the Tanker fight with EADS, what to do if the EADS-Air Force Tanker deal stands, whether its time to start shifting to non-Defense markets (and if so, which markets and how), how to compete with the A380, or what you see as an outsider that may be a big strategic issue for Boeing that you think Boeing management might miss because they are immersed in their daily details?
Tom
*Obviously, more useful for what your current recommendation is, not what it would have been back in September 2005.
So, within $10, what is the proper, non bubble price of a barrel of oil? Just how big is the bubble? Is it 50-75 dollars over-inflated right now? Or just 10-20 dollars?
I'd like to hear what you think about the progress in Iraq, and about the lack of media coverage of that progress. Do you support Obama's position that we should still pull out quickly?
Didn't you once promise us your evil twin sister as a guest blogger?
The economics, with high food prices, of keeping a vegetable garden and chickens/goats in the backyard.
What impact will changing the tax code for expatriates have on total tax revenue? And why aren't these changes getting more coverage?
The economics, with high food prices, of keeping a vegetable garden and chickens/goats in the backyard.
How about the sunny afternoon? It's been 104+ degrees for the last five dayshere in the desert, and shows no sign of abating. Add to that the detail that our mountain is on fire, which is making me believe I'm an athiest in hell.
Geof
Why so called "progressives", particularly in the eviromental arena, oppose virtually all of the "progress" of the last 100 years and would love to return to the halcyon days of 1900----no private cars, compact urban growth without sprawl, streetcars, bikes and walking as the predominant transportation modes, lots of old growth timber and wetlands, etc. Why don't they proudly proclaim that they are "regressives"?
With 20/20 hindsight now available what is the one, easiest, thing to have avoided the current crisis in the banking system.
Before it's too late, Obama's father day speech. CPI bias, now that you have a wider audience. Also, I second Mr. Cowen's motion for your evil twin. Give her a very British name, something that sounds like the owner of a large estate in famine-stricken Ireland...
How should we think about the environmental costs of commercial flying? It seems as though the average cost is high, but the marginal cost is quite low. When I fly across the country, it doesn't cause any extra flights, it just makes the one I'm on slightly heavier. Yes, the increased revenues might give the airline an incentive to increase the number of flights, but this effect seems very weak - much lower than the average cost of my flight (the consumption of fuel divided by the number of passengers). Maybe I'm just miscalculating?
Can you comment on your fellow blogger's enthusiasm about intercity rail, and how do you feel about our transit options in general, in the long term? Is massive investment of taxpayer money into building new, less oil-dependent transit infrastucture worth it?
List some of the ways that the MexicanGovernment exercises influence inside the U.S., and tell us what (if anything) you think we should do about it.
The fact that gasoline consumption is not really down while driving is.
Excel Data here (see Product Supplied, Finished Motor Gasoline).
The EIA defines product supplied as the appropriate measure of consumption:
Using 6 week moving average, I estimated gasoline consumption is down less than 1% from last year.
Assume you are, romantically speaking, a free agent: Who's the least attractive celebrity/public figure you'd seriously consider getting it on with?
How about, given that flying is much more direct, is rail still more efficient? Cost effective?
Once, I looked into taking the train from Detroit to NYC. The price was higher than the plane ticked, it required several changes, and would have required an extra day off of work.
I second relyt's idea.
1. Why isn't your tax plan consumption based? (IRA's without restrictions)
2. How can flying across the country cost an order of magnitude less than paying for the gas of a SUV and be more environmentally harmful? Surely, the energy in jet fuel must be somewhat closely priced to the energy in car fuel.
Please revisit the Obama/corporate income tax thread - and tell us why you prefer Obama's statement that he is having his team "look into" reducing corporate rate (but has not proposed any reduction in rates yet), whereas McCain actually has proposed reducing corporate income tax rates.
I'm not voting for McCain, but your Obama fanboi-ism is kinda pathetic. When Obama talks about renegotiating NAFTA, you abandon the principle of free trade. When McCain actually proposes reducing corporate income tax rates, while Obama just talks about the "possibility" of reducing rates, you still prefer Obama's position. Can't you find an issue where Obama is actually better on the issue than McCain on which to base your fanboi support?
What have you heard about Obama's plans regarding the death tax. I'm more interested in this in that I'm expecting a sizable inheritance from Mom in the next few years (she's 79 yrs. 4 mos.) and I'm counting the days. Well not literally counting the days but I'm thinking about them.
2. How can flying across the country cost an order of magnitude less than paying for the gas of a SUV and be more environmentally harmful?
A couple of notes: I see a general average of about $400-500 for an xc flight, while a 4000mi round trip in a 12mpg SUV would be 333gal @$4/gal, or $1332. So a good deal less, but nowhere near an order of magnitude.
Comapring mileage, a given cross-country flight (using 737-800 fuel burn, assuming 95% filled seats) averages between 72 and 80 mpg of Jet-A, on a per-seat basis (depending on winds, W or E-bound, etc). So, unless you were packing >6 people into a 12mpg SUV, the plane is the greener option.* Jet-A is running about $6/gal right now, giving a total round-trip per-seat fuel cost of $320, give or take. The airlines really aren't asking much of a premium right now...
*-ignoring 2nd-order effects of high-altitude CO2 emission, which is probably bad due to reduced gas exchange with the oceans, and contrail formation, which could be either good or bad depending on which study you read.
I've created a post on the possible causes of the increase in declining fuel efficiency with higher prices.
High Gas Prices Are Causing High Gas Prices
Other than Reason magazine and this blog, what do you find are the best sources for libertarian thought? Media outlets? Personalities? Authors? Who's the best libertarian thinker we don't know about out there?
Can you click my name-link, watch the short Bloggingheads.tv video, and tell us what you think about Horgan and Johnson's notion of a sort of "economics uncertainty principal"?
Hey cdg
Maybe you can answer a question for me. I read the other day that gasoline prices are up 21.2% over the past year (seems low). The same day I read that aviation fuel is up 80-100% over the last year. Can these both be correct, can aviation fuel have increased in cost that much more than gasoline or is this some type of temporary blip?
cdg
Sorry. The above post is sort of rude. My apologies, it was unintentional. I've simply been puzzling for the past few days over the seeming discrepancy and from your post above, it sounded like you might know, and so I wrote something hastily and posted without thinking. So please let me rephrase, "If you happen to know, would you please post a reply. Thanks."
What if Megan is the evil twin?
Gene-
No problem. When I look at the AAA site I find, as of 17 Jun:
-Reg unleaded: $4.075
-1 year ago : $3.002
-Diff : $1.073 or 35.7% rise
Compared to Jet-A from the IATA Jet Fuel Price Monitor which reports a 1-year rise of 90.5% and a current global average price of $3.971/gal (The $6 from the previous post was from calling a local airport - porbably a premium for buying small quantities at a general aviation airport).
So, slightly different numbers than what you saw, but still a big split. Crude is up much more than gasoline, as well. I'd assume that demand differences and refinery production play a part, but I didn't stay at a Holiday Inn Express last night and won't pretend to macroeconomic insight I don't have.
Do other nations outsource their military support operations to such as Halliburton and KBR? If so, do they pay as much? What is the war in Iraq costing by comparison to erstwhile engagements when troops mostly did their own KP? Are we getting a deal, or is this privatized arrangement as much of a rip-off as it seems?
cdg
Thanks very much. The numbers I saw were from two different NYTimes articles and I was skeptical, but sounds like they were more or less accurate. Maybe I'll poke around the American Petroleum Institute website to see if I can find an explanation. But in any event, thanks again.
How much growth in the mideast is attibutable to the rise in the price of oil, how much to normal growth, and how much to the removal of the Saddam regime?
Summer is just around the corner. Could you give us 5 books we should read during our down time? They don't have to be recent or focus on any particular subject. Just 5 good books.
Ooh! I have another one, what will be the additional accounting and auditing cost of cap and trade and carbon tax systems?
Accounting and auditing use up a lot of our intellectual capital, much of this is for tax purposes. Despite this vast amount of resources, tax fraud seems to be relatively common. How much more would be needed control carbon flows?
I don't think it would be insignificant. Think of how difficult it would be to tax or set the price of cocaine if we kept it illegal and continued on with the drug war. You can't set a price without accountablility.
Back when you were offering to make pound cake or answer questions for readers who contributed to relief for Katrina victims, we made a big donation to that cause, but I don't remember ever getting around to asking any of the questions I was thinking of then. At least two are still relevant:
1. What would be the cost-benefit analysis to work through whether it makes sense to sign up for cryonics or not?
2. Since our donation was matched by Boeing, its only fair to ask what would be your advice to Boeing for how the company cound best move forward?* Feel free to take on whatever sub-part of that question you want. Candidates include how to pursue the Tanker fight with EADS, what to do if the EADS-Air Force Tanker deal stands, whether its time to start shifting to non-Defense markets (and if so, which markets and how), how to compete with the A380, or what you see as an outsider that may be a big strategic issue for Boeing that you think Boeing management might miss because they are immersed in their daily details?
Tom
*Obviously, more useful for what your current recommendation is, not what it would have been back in September 2005.
I'd be interested in your perspective on this essay:
A Manifesto the the Next Industrial Revolution by Umair Haque.
So, within $10, what is the proper, non bubble price of a barrel of oil? Just how big is the bubble? Is it 50-75 dollars over-inflated right now? Or just 10-20 dollars?