The good news is that US quarterly productivity figures just got revised upwards. The bad news is that this is pretty standard for slowdowns/recessions, because companies tend to cut their least productive operations and employees first. The worse news is that the OECD just cut its US forecast for the next two years, to 1.2% and 1.1%, down from 2.0% and 2.2% in its December estimate. That's expected to seriously erode the performance of the OECD as a whole, which is now expected to grow at a sub-2% rate through 2009. Time to start brown bagging those lunches.
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What is inflation looking like right now, and is it too early to start using the S word?
Time to start sticking to metaphors that have actual meaning to those who grew up after 1980.
"the worse news is that the OECD just cut its US forecast for the next two years, to 1.2% and 1.1%, down from 2.0% and 2.2% in its December estimate."
Holy cow, the OECD just cut its US forecast for the next two years, to 1.2% and 1.1%, down from 2.0% and 2.2% in its December estimate? That's terrible news.
There's just one thing I want to know, chief. What's the OECD?
(Sorry about that.)
It's not my understanding, as an Econ major, that productivity normally grows in the early stages of a recession, and it's not the understanding expressed in today's WSJ, which expresses surprise at the numbers. Productivity usually declines because companies reduce output faster than they can reduce workers. Can anyone substantiate Ms. McArdle's statement?
Person wrote: Time to start sticking to metaphors that have actual meaning to those who grew up after 1980.
Believe it or not, some of us who grew up after 1980 really have used brown bags for food purposes other than concealing a forty of malt.
aMouseforallSeasons: The "brown bag" metaphor is used to refer to the practice of having to scale back on food costs because of tight budgets. Simply having carried some lunch somewhere at some time in a brown bag, does not suffice to have the context to make the "brown bag" metaphor have personal relevance and meaning.
You were probably joking, but in case you're stupid enough to think your comment is responsive, there you go.
I could certainly believe this. OTOH, I was surprised that ADP said today that payroll jobs went up by 40,000 in May, not down. That should perhaps be worth some moderate cheer.
Hey, Person, I grew up after 1980 and I understood the 'brown bag' metaphor.
And if memory serves me, so did Ms McArdle. So you may want to ask yourself what your problem is.
Half_Canadian: I understood the brown-bag metaphor too, and I also grew up after 1980. (Probably should have said born after 1980) That was never the point. I understood the brown bag metaphor, yes, but only because once or twice, I heard it, looked up what it meant (which in those dark ages meant asking 100 people before getting an answer instead of google or wikipedia), shrugged, and moved on.
Oh, also, there was a dorky promotion at Sonic restaurants about the "brown-bag special" and the commercials for it made that oh-so-clever pun about OMGWTFBBQ brown bag can refer to scaling back ... but also delicious Sonic food! Hah hah! IIRC, that was actually where I first heard it, which kinda taints my hearing of any subsequent use.
ANYWAY, what I was getting at, is that while we post-80ers might know what "brown-bagging" refers to, it is in a detached, dictionary-look-up, clinical sense. We do not comprehend it by the process, "hm, brown-bagging it ... OH YEAH, I remember what it was like when we my family had to 'brown bag it', heh, heh, that was when we had to cut back ... so Megan_McArdle must be referring to cutting back here by referring to it as one *kind* of cutting back that I had to do at one time!" ... that is, by reference to personal equivalent experience.
The distinction may not have been clear the first time, but in my second post I elaborated.
Wait, I just lost five minutes of my life on this.