Because he's falling, and the campaign hasn't managed to find a successful new line against McCain in two months. Look at the InTrade graph:
Obama got very little bounce from his convention despite an astouding television and live viewership for his acceptance speech. The McCain contract, on the other hand, got a 1.3 bounce this morning before he even spoke.
When I say that the Obama campaign is in trouble, I don't mean by any means that a McCain victory just became inevitable, or even probable. But Obama is no longer going to have the walk everyone was expecting three months ago. They need to find a more successful means of attacking McCain than they have so far come up with, because the overall trend of their polls is downward, and I'm told that many internal polls, which project likely voters, already show McCain with at least a 50/50 chance of winning. Obama's got a fight on his hands.
thanks Meg... "An Obama lead is good news for McCain!"
What new drugs do they have you on again?
FWIW, Obama seemed to get a pretty good bounce according to the RCP polls. On 8/22 the gap was only 1.4% between the two and now it's 5.8% (and it was 6.2% on Tuesday). That seems like a reasonable bounce to me, though I confess I don't recall what sort of bounces Kerry or Gore (or Clinton, for that matter) got with their conventions.
"I'm told that many internal polls, which project likely voters, already show McCain with at least a 50/50 chance of winning."
If that were the case McCain wouldn't have picked Palin. You don't throw a Hail Mary pass if an ordinary play would give you an even chance of winning.
Uhuh, I think what Megan is referring to is the thought that, given the ways things have been going the last couple years one might have thought Obama would have had a larger lead than 6% at this point...
Are you so stupid as to take InTrade as the basis for Obama being in trouble?
I don't think I've heard anyone speak of BO having a walk in the park. Certainly many of my like minded friends are a bit nervous concerning this election. But I don't think Palin is picked if the Sons of Rove thought their guy was in a favorable position.
Uhuh, I think what Megan is referring to is the thought that, given the ways things have been going the last couple years one might have thought Obama would have had a larger lead than 6% at this point...
And how much of a lead did Ray-gun have at this point in 1980?
Megan's dead right on this one. Perception is reality. It doesn't matter if Obama is center-left, whip-smart, worked his way up from nothing instead of a beauty pageant or born into military royalty and marring moneybags. People buy into the image, aided by a relentless, well-moneyed Republican Noise Machine and Lee Atwater Strategists and a compliant, Notreallyliberal Media. That's how an entirely unqualified dumbasss like George Bush, Jr. got in.
People like Megan who pretend to be independent bought that crap last time, and look what we got: 9-11, Iraq Invasion, incomprehensible deficits, radical Supreme Court, and what have you. They may well buy into that again. The United States is doomed.
Look at the InTrade graph
And what did the InTrade graph have to say about Palin's chances for the VP nom? McCain's for the GOP nom?
Tom:
Uhuh, I think what Megan is referring to is the thought that, given the ways things have been going the last couple years one might have thought Obama would have had a larger lead than 6% at this point...
Don't forget, a 5% national average, for better or worse, tends to be an electoral blowout. Maybe not a sweep, but pretty close in how we do our politics.
Further more Meg, don't forget, she is after all, only the VP choice.
This race ultimately comes down to Obama Vs. McCain, and we'll have several debates pitting the two against each other.
The fun hasn't even started, and Obama's consistently had the national lead, not even mentioning state breakdowns (which are more important in the polling world).
This race ultimately comes down to Obama Vs. McCain, and we'll have several debates pitting the two against each other.
Right. But not in the way that you're suggesting.
Issues will yet again have little or nothing to do with it, despite the center-left smart people vs. the far right know-nothings. Who is the "averrage" or "real" American in Michigan going to vote for, her self-interest or her perceived self interest? Fear and ignorance has worked well in the past--heck, it got Megan's vote--why should They alter that strategy?
ed - please show me one thing that Obama has actually DONE (not said or speechified) that would lend credence to your "center-left" characterization? Anything - please. Sure he makes rhetorical nods to black fathers taking responsibility - but he fought welfare reform down the line and has said that if he were in Clinton's shoes he would not have signed it. His position on the war has been on the extreme side of his party. He doesn't support school vouchers, a rate conservative policy actually embraced by blacks. His speeches give all kinds of nods to centrism, bipartisanship etc - but his votes are pure party line, solid left Democrat.
Megan, you should know more about markets than this.
InTrade, like any market, reactions only to the "unknown unknowns", not the "known unknowns", to paraphrase our former Defense Secretary.
Obama's contract is flat but it's still at 60%. In other words, InTrade is giving him a 20-point lead over McCain despite their being virtually tied in the polls prior to the Democratic convention.
Why? Because traders in these contracts anticipated that the Democratic convention would be well-orchestrated, well-viewed, and well-received. You're not going to see a sizable bump just because what the market already predicted proves accurate.
Are you shocked every time a company reports a 30% increase in earnings and their stock price doesn't shoot through the roof, too?
Republicans always come up strong in the fall. Even Bob Dole and Gerald Ford did. They just didn't pass the Democrat by November.
This race is too close for Obama to coast.
Thinking back to 2004, Kerry was about the same place in the polls as Obama, and Bush was where McCain is now.
Obama is a much better candidate than Kerry, but I think McCain is better than Bush, so who knows?
What groundbreaking journalism. This is exactly why blogs need editors. You use a source without understanding what you are looking at and you draw conclusions based on that.
On intrade Obama is leading McCain by 20 points. This isn't a "poll", it is a futures market. It means that people think the probability that Obama will win is 60% and the probability that McCain will is 40%. No matter what the polls say, it is very unlikely that McCain will hit 30 or 25 this early when the people holding those contracts paid much much more than that.
You can look at several other sources and see that, as of right now, this is an electoral WIPE OUT. Princeton has him with 305 electoral votes, RealClearPolitics has him with a 6% lead, Pollster has him leading by 5%, etc. And it has gone UP in all those places in the last few days.
I think saying Obama is "in trouble" is a bit of hyperbole.
Anyone who gives even a cursory glance at a newspaper never expected Obama to cruise into the White House. Because of forces beyond his control, the country is extremely partisan and almost completely divided. The vote was always going to be close, regardless of how well Palin did during her speech last night.
Polls and speculation are very nearly pointless. Let's try not to buy the hype about "bounces" in early September.
Holdfast:
Hard left? If Obama is far left, what does that make Tammy Baldwin, Bernie Sanders and Russ Feingold? That FISA vote sure made the left happy, didn't it? Glad to know you believe lies so easily.
The issue here is that Obama peaked too early. Not only is he no longer "new", his lies and absurd resume padding are getting extremely OLD - and now he still has to make it through 60 days with some degree of scrutiny. Palin is fresh and right on target with an expected peak right around election day. It's all in the timing ;)
Intrade is, basically, a gauge of gambling on the outcome, not a poll of actual voters. In the polls of both registered and likely voters, Obama's bounce has held firm even through the RNC. We'll see if the post-Palin speech polling shows any bounce for McCain, but it'd have to be a lot to get and keep him abreast of Obama, much less ahead.
The only reason it's not a blow out is because he's black. Many Americans are racist as crap. If the coverage of Wright and the calling of Obama a Muslim and all the B. Hussein crap hasn't shown you people that, nothing will.
Even if only a few percent of Americans were racist, automatically losing a few percent of the vote would hurt ANY candidate.
They may not be saying overtly "I won't vote for a black guy" but that doesn't mean it doesn't influence their thinking.
You know, I don't think Obama wants a "walk" in the park.
I'm surprised I don't hear this theory voiced more often (a variant of rope-a-dope): I think Obama learned from Dukakis and Gore and especially Hillary; being ahead too much too soon (i.e., "inevitable") is a curse because your supporters get apathetic, your ground game withers, and your opponents get to wear the "underdog" mantle which garners them good press and magnifies their every little bump in the polls.
Better to keep the race close as long as you can and pull away late.
When I say that the Obama campaign is in trouble, I don't mean by any means that a McCain victory just became inevitable, or even probable. But Obama is no longer going to have the walk everyone was expecting three months ago.
Ye gods, talk about the soft bigotry of low expectations! Obama will probably win, but he's going to have to work for it! No shit, Sherlock. Whoever said he was going to have a walk? Names, please. Did it never dawn on you to ask why his bid is being called historic?
Full disclosure: I sold Obama at 65 on Intrade and I'm getting seriously pissed off with the Republicans. I don't seriously expect them to win, but can't they at least pull him down to 55 or so for at least an hour?
Go McCain/Palin ... we are on the rise. Experienced... Military sound... They HAVE already made a difference... sold the Gov plane on ebay...fired the Gov cook... and drives herself to work... cut budget by half a billion... I think you will see a rise and McCain has fought for the freedom that we share.. we meaning liberals, women, blacks, hispanics and whites!
I like that this ticket will not send my 18 year old somewhere they wounldn't send their own child.
GO MCCAIN AND PALIN
Go McCain/Palin ... we are on the rise. Experienced... Military sound... They HAVE already made a difference... sold the Gov plane on ebay...fired the Gov cook... and drives herself to work... cut budget by half a billion... I think you will see a rise and McCain has fought for the freedom that we share.. we meaning liberals, women, blacks, hispanics and whites!
I like that this ticket will not send my 18 year old somewhere they wounldn't send their own child.
GO MCCAIN AND PALIN
Obama is winning this race. All women except for hard-core conservatives were extremely turned off by Palin. She may be white, but she's white trash. They hadn't counted on that. Therefore, she is fatally flawed and will not lift up the McCain ticket. Mark my words.
Megan (and anyone else),
I'm curious if you really think that Intrade is an excellent predictor of political performance. It seems to reflect conventional wisdom more than aggregating knowledge as you would expect an information market to. Also, it's far from an efficient market; I would have been able to consistently make money off it this year if I didn't think it was illegal/unethical. The New York Times had a long article about a guy who actually did make quite a bit of money from the political markets on Intrade this year.
If a large number of people share my reluctance to use Intrade, that might partly explain _why_ it isn't efficient; is there not enough volume? I must admit I'm not an expert on information markets. Still, I find it hard to take Intrade's predictive power seriously when friends and I have noticed (at least short term) irrationality on several days this year. One of those friends who doesn't share my qualms did, in fact, make a very fair profit. I agree that Intrade may be better than exit polls, but people who claim that they got all 50 states right in 2004 are being disingenuous; only a couple of those picks (Florida and Ohio, for example) were non-obvious.
Just Google-- Berg vs Obama and read--if this were in the National news as it should be Obama would only have the Black vote---
Go McCain/Palin ... we are on the rise. Experienced... Military sound... They HAVE already made a difference... sold the Gov plane on ebay...fired the Gov cook... and drives herself to work... cut budget by half a billion... I think you will see a rise and McCain has fought for the freedom that we share.. we meaning liberals, women, blacks, hispanics and whites!
I like that this ticket will not send my 18 year old somewhere they wounldn't send their own child.
GO MCCAIN AND PALIN
Without wanting to rise to the bait, I'm unsure any serious analysts ever said it was going to be a walk in the park for Obama.
Can you back up your contention by naming anyone who said this?
Surely the Democratic primaries made it clear to anyone paying attention, that the black dude would have to fight to the very finish in order to complete his historic ascent to the Presidency.
Weak sauce Meg.
Jumping on the Megan has no clue what she's talking about train:
If you thought back to your MBA days, you'd remember that a stock price already includes predicted rises and fall. Thus, Obama at 60% prior to the convention included the prediction of an average convention bounce. That the stock neither jumped nor fell means the convention went as predicted, not that the convention was a failure.
kel:
Did you know that Palin is a closet socialist?
This is nonsense; Obama has more than 50% on the Rasmussen and Gallup daily trackers, his highest ever. That includes the convention bounce, also the "negative bounce" he got when the media were distracted by the Palin accouncement, so where is the "little" bounce Megan is talking about?
Before the convention, I thought that Obama was losing traction and focus. Actually, what he was doing was making sure of the convention choreography with the Clintons since all eyes were going to be on that. He focussed on that and his own speech, and he came up trumps.
Obama is a strategist, and I am sure he has one for the debates and the run-in, too. Last March, with Clinton gaining states and the Wright brouhaha, he hardly broke sweat, though he took his licks.
McCain is a tactician, and a gambler's throw has given him a temporary bubble of achievement. But let's wait a week and see when the numbers settle down.
BTW, how many people watched that speech last night. Was it close to Hilary's >20 million? Was it close to Obama's >30million?
http://www.pollster.com/blogs/cbs_palin_favorable_rating_912.php
Pollster.com has Palin's first approval ratings, and they bear me out. Only 14% favourable, and 45% don't know enough.
So "America's sweetheart" has NOT pulled it out of the fire for McCain. And Obama'c campaign is NOT in trouble. Its business as usual.
escoteric nonsense. the gallup tracking poll shows obama maintaining a clear lead and recruiting more swing voters to his side by a significant margin.
http://www.gallup.com/poll/110017/Intense-Political-Week-Brings-Decline-Swing-Voters.aspx
and sarah's ranting notwithstanding:
Gallup Daily: No Dent in Obama Lead So Far
Obama holds 7-point lead in latest results
September 4, 2008
http://www.gallup.com/tag/Gallup%2bDaily.aspx
Surely, you've been making bigger claims than merely "Obama's got a fight on his hands", no?
I'me sure someone on this thread has made this point, but there is a big difference between futures markets and opinion polls. No one in American can discount the future effect that the conventions will have on their vote. So they actually have to wait for the convention to bounce to one side or the other. But futures markets can forsee convention bounces, because they know they're going to happen.
The fundamentals of the race haven't changed. Conventions don't typically change these fundamentals. So we shouldn't be wondering why Obama didn't get a futures market bounce--his VP pick wasn't earth-shaking--but we should be looking at whether the surprising Palin pick moves the market. And I don't think that one should agree with McArdle that the Dems are "in trouble" if a week from now Obama's still selling at around 60.
Megan McCardle thinks Obama is in trouble?
Then this election is pretty much in the bag for the Dems. McCardle is almost a reliable contrary indicator as the National Review's Kathryn "Santorum Rules" Lopez.
The Republican format for America: Keep the middle class uneducated; keep jobs scarce; keep the money where it "should" be, and keep everyone catering to those who already have it. To run the country like that, you really don't need "big" government; it can be as slim as the party slices the upper class pie to be. If your not in that percentage though, it may not be the smartest way to go. Palin so much as said that this is fine with her. She may not like Washington DC's insides, but she is willing to carve out a piece for herself and make it look pretty much the same.
Megan (and anyone else),
I'm curious if you really think that Intrade is an excellent predictor of political performance. It seems to reflect conventional wisdom more than aggregating knowledge as you would expect an information market to. Also, it's far from an efficient market; I would have been able to consistently make money off it this year if I didn't think it was illegal/unethical. The New York Times had a long article about a guy who actually did make quite a bit of money from the political markets on Intrade this year.
If a large number of people share my reluctance to use Intrade, that might partly explain _why_ it isn't efficient; is there not enough volume? I must admit I'm not an expert on information markets. Still, I find it hard to take Intrade's predictive power seriously when friends and I have noticed (at least short term) irrationality on several days this year. One of those friends who doesn't share my qualms did, in fact, make a very fair profit. I agree that Intrade may be better than exit polls, but people who claim that they got all 50 states right in 2004 are being disingenuous; only a couple of those picks (Florida and Ohio, for example) were non-obvious.
More on the "do you really understand asset prices" bit.
Basic finance theory suggests that stock price movements are driven by UNanticipated news. Obama got a 5-ish point bounce in the polls, and this is spot-on average. So there was no news. And hence, if markets are anything close to "efficient" (in the informational sense), you would not see any change in the price. (And if you don't think the market is informationally efficient, then you shouldn't quote Intrade prices to make your point.)
And BTW, McCain's share is trading between 39 and 40, which is where it's been around for the past week. Given the day to day variation in this price, you're quite brave to interpret a supposed uptick as a bounce.
More GOP 'newspeak'.
Blah, Blah, blah
America will not reward complete GOP failure.
Um...
1) This isn't a poll.
2) Intrade has Obama at 1:2 odds. Risk $100 to get $50. That's not a good bet. Most gamblers would only take it on a lock.
So essentially, 60% of the people on Intrade believe that Obama is a certainty to become President. And that hasn't changed in months.
Oh no! Ready the fainting couch.
"Thinking back to 2004, Kerry was about the same place in the polls as Obama, and Bush was where McCain is now."
Not so.
This date in 2004:
http://www.electoral-vote.com/evp2004/Pres/Maps/Sep04.html
Today's electoral map:
http://www.electoral-vote.com/
Actually, this is good news for McCain and bad news for Obama for several reasons.
First, while no one wants to say it, race WILL play a roll in the election. Polls typically do NOT count poor, white voters with lower educations-who typically are more likely to vote based on race. Second, the current polls also do not address the Bradley effect, which, history shows, means pre-election polls often distort the true results because people will SAY they are voting for the black candidate, but actually vote for the white candidate on election day. This is a recognized statistical phenomenon. Finally, from a geographic standpoint, many of the battleground states are in areas where race will likely have an impact. It seems highly unlikely that Virginia, Florida or NC will end up in the Obama column, and he is weak at best in Colorado and Nevada-and will likely be behind if McCain gets a bounce.
This gives McCain a probable majority. Further, although I am actually an Obama supporter, I also believe that his current ad campaigns are totally ineffective and fail to carry any weight. On the whole, McCain's campaign is doing a better job right now.
The lack of progress, particularly in light of the hypocrisy of the Palin nomination, should be making the Obama campaign completely re-tool right now-they are losing their edge-and performing much more conservatively than they did against Hillary Clinton. What is his message? Change is not necessarily a "good" thing-anyone who has dealt with change professionally can tell you that many people equate "change" with "bad". Merely advertising "change" is not enough.
Frankly, until we are clearly "post bounce" (a week from Saturday at the earliest) and Obama has a clear margin of victory both in current polls and in the various statistical regression models out there (538.com for the liberals AND election projection 2008 for the conservatives) I am not convinced he can win. At this point, I just see another sad replay of the democrats same old "go for the South" which ALWAYS loses the election in the end.
So essentially, 60% of the people on Intrade believe that Obama is a certainty to become President.
Not remotely. The average belief of Intrade users is that Obama has a 60% chance of winning.
So essentially, 60% of the people on Intrade believe that Obama is a certainty to become President.
Not remotely. The average belief of Intrade users is that Obama has a 60% chance of winning.
Obama's blowout electoral victory will be Very Good News for John McCain!!!
CBS just released a poll which shows the race as dead even -- 42-42 -- and the majority of the data gathering occurred before Palin's speech last night. The fact of the matter is that there is general fatigue across the country with Obama ...due mainly because he's been front page news for the past 18 months. Regardless of which side you are supporting, it is clear that momentum has shifted over to the McCain ticket. The question is whether it can be sustained through to November 4.
Anyone who ever thought Obama would walk into the White House against john McCain was living in la la land. And the Obama campaign does not live in la la land.
"Are you so stupid as to take InTrade as the basis for Obama being in trouble?"
I generally defend InTrade for all the good market-based reasons -- all available information priced according to value. But it should never be used to rebut real public opinion data. It's telling that megan resorts to it in these circumstances.
The InTrade number is on a downward slope simply because it jumped after he won the nomination, and then he got into another real race. Additionally, to whatever extent it is moving downward in the short run related to the Palin pick, that is I believe driven by the impact the story is having, ironically, among high-information elites. After all, who else has money to bet on politics? It's almost definitional. In actual poling terms, the Palin choice seems to be having little impact or a slightly negative one for McCain. I think it highly likely that wagerers are overestimating her impact on InTrade because of the novelty and prominence of the story. As on Wall Street, long-term trends get masked by short-term shocks. We will know next week when the post-convention reality sets in what her real impact on voting intentions is.
Let's not forget that (now that it's clear Gustav did not become a political storm) there is no reason to forgive John McCain his convention bump expectation. An essentially tied race post-convention is what any clear-eyed analyst should have predicted three weeks ago; it is what we will have.
The unknown is whether Sarah Palin is a long-term game changer in the race. Anyone who claims to know the answer to that is flattering herself.
Palin lied when she claimed she sold the Governor's plane on e-bay.
http://newscenter-cnn.com/2008/09/05/palin-did-not-sell-jet-on-ebay/
Perception is reality. It doesn't matter if Obama is center-left...
This is proof that perception is everything. Obama's voting record is extreme-left according to pro-leftist organizations that rate politcians based on their voting record. He gets ranked to the left of Pelosi and Ted Kennedey. In the state legislature, he voted for abortion bills that were so far left that even NARAL didn't support them. Etc. His speeches give the perception of center-left, which is what ultumately will matter to the voters because the typical voter is too uninformed to use more than just rhetoric to assess the candidates (like whomever posted the above statement about Obama being center-left).
Re: the Bradley effect
Some statisticians have studied this and concluded it was a phenomenon of its time, and should not affect Obama. It was not really visible in the nomination battles.
Mary, who posted on 9/4/08 at 1:47 pm says:
All women except for hard-core conservatives were extremely turned off by Palin. She may be white, but she's white trash.
Substitute "black trash", "Latino trash", "female trash" or some other group for "white trash" and you'd have people crying racism or sexism. But I guess it's just fine to denigrate white people, right Mary. Isn't that called bigotry?
http://www.merriam-webster.com/dictionary/bigot
None of this matters. Most of the American public is stupid, Obama will probably win because of that alone. Americans are like 3 year olds, they just want what they want. They want change, better spoken with a nasal whine. Hitler gave people change! On issues of war and foreign policy American opinion has been wrong almost every time, since the 18th century. We are like that three year old, we gotta touch the hot stove, we won't listen to those who know what they are talking about. We like the glad handed plaid suited used car salesman. I give you the Democratic ticket; just what you three year olds want.
Obama has already pulled media buys from GA. Ohio is now a must win. Which means where back to Kerry campaign math of '04. Palin pick wasn't the hail mary nonsense you hear in the left-wing retard media. It isn't to pick off Hillary women, although she will get a good portion. Its about the base and that stupid pencil mustached geek from Ga, Bob Barr. He's taking too many votes away in battleground states (NH, he had 11%). Getting out Ga means the base is coming home. McCain can concerntrate on independants and blue-dogs. Here, in Florida, Obama has scaled down big-time. If there no mess-ups (with McCain anything is possible), this should not be close in November. The evil Hillary would have won this thing pretty easily, thank God for Obama.
That eight point convention bounce that the Obama campaign experienced has all but evaporated. His desperation is beginning to show through! He is becoming angry, and appears to be running scared!
Every attack he launches against Governor Palin seems to backfire on him! Poor Obama, losing his rock star status so soon! Well, I guess that's how it goes when Hollywood execs try to create a star out of a no talent hack!
Re: Obama has already pulled media buys from GA.
Georgia was a bridge too far from the start. Obama was never going to win it. The tactic was to force McCain to defend Georgia, thereby wasting using up (still) scarce campaign cash.
Re: Ohio is now a must win. Which means where back to Kerry campaign math of '04.
Not at all. Check out Electoral-Vote.com. Virginia (!) remains tied. Obama is leading in CO, NV, NM, even ND. He's competitive in MT IN, and, yes, FL. He's solid in places like IA and WI that Kerry lost or almost lost. The GOP's dream of winning MI and PA is a pure pipe dream-- no evidence of any shift toward McCain at all. Yes, there's still a red state blue state divide, but a few more states have blued out and others are purpling. With the possible exception of NH (very close in the last two elections) there is not a state that Kerry won that the GOP looks likely to take this year.
Re: Its about the base and that stupid pencil mustached geek from Ga, Bob Barr.
Barr has not been much of a factor. He's just too libertarian for the GOP base. Doesn't support the FMA. Pure federalist on a lot of issues. Hates the erosion of civil liberties. Skeptical (to say the least) about the Iraq War. Barr has not been taking very many votes from McCain (or Obama).
Re: there no mess-ups (with McCain anything is possible), this should not be close in November.
There is absolutely no evidence that there will be a runaway victory for either candidate. Blow out elections (like '84) are known well in advance of September.
Re: McCain can concerntrate on independants and blue-dogs.
Except that he's done a very poor job of reaching out beyond the GOP base, and he's boxed himself in so much that it will be very hard for him to do so now. Sarah Palin is one more nail in that coffin.
Re: The evil Hillary would have won this thing pretty easily
Hillary might have had a slightly easier time than Obama (to be blunt, she's white, and mainly hated by people who hate Democrats period). But I doubt she'd be leading one whit more.
Re: That eight point convention bounce that the Obama campaign experienced has all but evaporated.
Convention bounces are always transient. They come and go in a week. McCain's bounce (which has not quite gotten him over Obama's numbers) will be gone by this time next week too, and we'll be back to a 4-6 point spread. Unless something big and unexpected happens in the next eighth weeks, this race will not be changing much.
Obama is down 10 points among likely voters as of Sept 8th. If you don't call that a problem, I don't know what is. He now has to defend democrat states that were easily is his column a few months ago. He has to fight tooth and nail for PA and MI, but at the end of the day, Hillary Clinton was 100% right. Obama is no electable and the Democrats who pushed Hillary out should be the ones to blame.
In OHIO Columbiana County that voted Democratic since 1865 except for the Bush Elections is moving again to support the Republicans and will put Ohio's electoral votes into the Republican column. My prediction is McCain 500 electoral votes and Obaba gets about 38 electoral votes.