Markets: down, down, down and the flames went higher . . .
15 Oct 2008 09:03 pm
After another disastrous day on Wall Street, the Nikkei is, as of this writing, down 10%. The brief optimism of the earlier days this week is looking more and more like a dead cat bounce.
Optimism didn't cause the Friday recovery or the Monday rally. Optimism was the result of those rallies.
The most vicious rallies always occur in bear markets. A retest of the Friday lows is inevitable as any chart watcher will tell you. A bull would hope that retest would occur weeks or month later. I don't think there has ever been a significant multi year low which made a successful retest of a low a few days after the first low.
That doesn't mean it can't happen. It has to be considered that we are in the area of a significant low. I wouldn't count on it and I can pick S&P targets down to 620 or even 500 or even OMG 320. Nobody knows. The future is not determined.
Optimism didn't cause the Friday recovery or the Monday rally. Optimism was the result of those rallies.
The most vicious rallies always occur in bear markets. A retest of the Friday lows is inevitable as any chart watcher will tell you. A bull would hope that retest would occur weeks or month later. I don't think there has ever been a significant multi year low which made a successful retest of a low a few days after the first low.
That doesn't mean it can't happen. It has to be considered that we are in the area of a significant low. I wouldn't count on it and I can pick S&P targets down to 620 or even 500 or even OMG 320. Nobody knows. The future is not determined.
Time to make a shopping list and name your prices, then see if the market offers them to you.
All right, a Johnny Cash reference! Can we get a little Willie next?
Mamas, Don't Let Your Babies Grow Up to Be Hedge Fund Managers.