When I was interviewing for jobs in investment banking and consulting, way back in the wilds of 2000, I was assured that I didn't need to worry about any recession. Consultants were as valuable telling companies how to downsize as they were explaining how to expand. Bankers explained that while IPOs might fall off during down years, M&A activity would pick up as companies snapped up new bargains.
This was horse hockey, and after accepting a management consulting job to start in fall of 2001, I was rewarded with 18 months of unemployment. Banking turned out to be just as recession-prone as everything else.
So naturally when I read that Bernstein is predicting at least another year of down M&A activity, I wondered how many MBAs are ruing the day they bought the same stupid line I did in 2001.
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It's amazing that someone as innumerate as you claim to be was even offered that sort of job. It's also humorous to think that you -- with an Ivy League bachelors and an MBA from Chicago -- now have the same job that Ta-Nehisi, a college dropout, does.
Now is probably a time when one needn't be highly numerate to be a consultant. Many businesses must be overstaffed four- or five-fold for the new economic world, and that will be obvious to the most cursory inspection.
Surely you heard differently from your professors and other students, didn't you? Investment banks are notorious for bidding salaries and bonuses way up in a strong market, then firing half or more of their people the moment there's a downturn. A simple graph of past M&A activity would show that it has been pretty cyclical.
I teach an investment banking class and certainly warn my students of how unstable such jobs are (plus the long hours, stress, etc.). They're high pay, 'glamour' jobs but they're not for everyone.
I thought horse hockey was Polo.
The first advantage of having an MBA is that, when you stand in line to enter the unemployment office, you instantly know how to make the unemployment office more efficient.
The second advantage on an MBA is that you can think of at least 12 ways to make money by providing jobs to the people who are in line with you, many of them legal.
The third advantage is that while you wait in line you can get on your cell phone and raise enough money to start one of the businesses so that before you reach the window you are no longer unemployed. Nevertheless, you accept your check, because you're worth it.
Believing anything anyone says in an interview is always dicey. Once had a job interview; it was clear within 10 seconds that I did not want the job.
The guy made small talk: "It's a beautiful day out, isn't it"? The weather was 70 degrees and sunny. "No, it's not," I said. To which he expressed surprise.
"Well," I explained, "I don't trust anything anyone says in an interview."
At least, that's how the conversation goes in my dreams.
Don't forgot soon-to-be lawyers who took a job at one of the many firms that are going under/firing people/etc.
Fred,
The reason why Megan would never have lasted as an investment banker or consultant is nothing to do with numeracy. The remuneration of innumerate bankers and consultants seems to work out at at about $10 million per dozen per year; and they are less numerate than Megan.
Megan would have left investment banking and/or consultancy because she is below average gifted at fooling herself. She just would not have fitted in. Have you considered that field? Worth an aptitude test I would guess.
By the standards of this blog I think it is more accurate to say that Megan suffered due to the economic problem of offering a product that no one wanted.
Like there's some kind of Ivy League oversupply.
Fred:
"It's amazing that someone as innumerate as you claim to be was even offered that sort of job. It's also humorous to think that you -- with an Ivy League bachelors and an MBA from Chicago -- now have the same job that Ta-Nehisi, a college dropout, does."
---Because no one here would jump at the chance to simply comment on the news for a living rather than sneak away from our desk jobs to spatter our dribble on Megan's comments.
I think its more impressive that Ta-Nehisi has a better job than you, Fred. Clearly he has better priorities and get-up-and-go in life than you do, snarkmeister.
I, for one, would not jump at the possibility to accept payment for providing something of absolutely zero value. I have this thing called a conscience that prevents me from scamming even those that so richly deserve it. Of all the professions available to a man of my skill set, I made sure to pick one that would make me of some use.
Nutella is absolutely right. You should never accept a job you can't believe in... because you'll be competing against all the guys who DO believe in it. And that's a hard handicap to make up.
Just how does an innummerate person complete an MBA from a quant school like the University of Chicago?
As for M&A, it's always there. These days it's just taking a low profile under the label "industry aggregation" or the revenge of Main Street over Wall Street.
Deals never stop.
I got my MBA from NYU at approx the same time you got yours from Chicago.
I spent a few years hitting my head against the wall that was the consulting job market. I did end up doing consulting of a different sort. You know what? It kinda sucked. I moved in-house, and now am doing something fairly different.
I wish a little birdie told me about the consulting job market back in 2000/2001... Ah, well. Life ended up pretty good. Plus now I am awesome at writing resumes with so much practice under my belt.
Consultants are always the first to go when it gets rough. My favorite is when someone says they want to do strategy and end up in consulting. Companies take years to develop strategies, it can't be 80/20.
M&A is still going strong in the Healthcare sector! Because over 25% of tiny public biotechs have completely run out of money and credit....