Mattresses join the long list of goods which are supposed to be durable, but aren't this time around. You would think people would need them, at least as safes. But Select Comfort and Simmons are both in trouble. Based on my experience, Select Comfort ought to be--I lived in a place with one for a while, and it was not a gigantic improvement over an aerobed. But Simmons makes a perfectly fine mattress.
Mattresses, however, were part of the great American fad for upscaling ordinary consumer goods into luxury items. Companies expanded, went private, and levered up in the expectation of steady cash flows. By the end of this year, sales are expected to be down around 20%, and both manufacturers and retailers are in deep trouble.
Not all consumer durables will fall off so sharply--when your refrigerator breaks, you have to get a new one, even if you don't fancy spending the money. But mattresses don't break; the only reason you get a new one is either that you're flush, or you've changed your living situation. But recessions impede new household formation. People are much more likely to be sleeping on Mom's spare bed than finally moving out right now.
Still, once traditional recession-proof stalwarts like alcohol and mattresses start to slip, what's left for your counter-cyclical cash stash? Canned goods and ammunition are looking better every day.
Copyright © 2009 by The Atlantic Monthly Group. All rights reserved.
How can you possibly compare alcohol to mattresses?
While we are on the subject, can someone explain to me, why in the world mattresses cost so much? I mean, $1,600 for a large pillow?
I'm all for charging what the market can bare, but why isn't someone undercutting the competition? Are manufacturing costs really that high? Or are there some entry barriers that most of us are not aware of?
when your refrigerator breaks, you have to get a new one,
But it doesn't necessarily have to be the Big Fancy one with all the bells, whistles, and digital frippery. You might just get an old-fashioned one that only has two doors, no fancy displays, and no digital controls.
Well, mattresses do break, just not very frequently.
I used to work at bed, bath and beyond.
I worked in the beyond department
What kind of ammo do you recommend?
But mattresses don't break; the only reason you get a new one is either that you're flush, or you've changed your living situation.
Not exactly. I mean, they do ultimately wear out, and there comes a point where, even though you could theoretically sleep on the old one forever, the sagginess and creakiness get on your nerves enough that it's worth getting a new one. Even if you're not so much "flush" as rudimentarily solvent.
OTOH, be prepared for sticker shock. I wasn't when I went mattress-shopping last month. Possibly because the set I was replacing was bought in 1991.
"...mattresses don't break..."
Not quite true. Old-style (spring) mattresses eventually wear through: nothing more uncomfortable than trying to sleep on a mattress where if you roll the wrong way, a spring pokes out and sticks you in a tender part.
Also, non-spring mattresses deform over time: you can extend the life of one by turning it over or around (or both), but presently it's hard as a rock and twice as lumpy.
Guess we found that recession you were looking for. It was right in front of the depression. Good job, Galtie. We're gonna miss your skills when make off for the gulch.
Obviously written by someone young, healthy, and with a good back.
Chiropractor recommends we replace ours every five years because we both have serious back issues. And while mattresses don't "break," they do "break down."
But mattresses don't break; the only reason you get a new one is either that you're flush, or you've changed your living situation.
Or you have a child, who must have his or her own bed one day. Luckily the basic version of a twin mattress is available at Sam's Club for $99 and in the pricier retail outlets for $145.
" ... What kind of ammo do you recommend? ..."
12-gauge, 00 buckshot for the shotgun, .357 magnum for the revolver, 9mm or .45 ACP for the semi-auto, and 30-.06 or .308 for the rifle.
When I moved out after my last marriage-like relationship, I moved into a condo with an upstairs that has a bedroom, bathroom and office that I use and a downstairs that has a kitchen, dining room, living room and bedroom that I rent out. The place was not built by geniuses and it is impossible to get a real bed upstairs without some serious work (take out upstairs window--put in bed--replace window). Because I'm a good for nothing boy, I said fuck it and went with a futon much to the chagrin of a number of girlfriends since then. I had a girl BUY ME A BED refusing to believe my story about the difficulty of getting a bed into my bedroom. I ended up putting the bed in the communal garage--the complex has about 10 units--and someone sold it at a yard sale thinking it was up for grabs. Now this is no skin off my ass since I prefer to sleep, sit and for the most part eat on or near the floor (I'm northern european minimalist with a modernist father) but to this day it drives my girlfriends crazy. It's like when I had a nice '83 Honda Prelude about ten years ago and my girlfriend forced me to buy a new car. Now I have an awesome 2000 Honda Civic that I will never sell.
@zic
Deadlifts, overhead squats, and weekend sports will do more for your back than a mattress.
I've found mattress love breaks down quite nicely on a male/female divide.
As a male, I can sleep anywhere, and abhor buying or schlepping a mattress to new places. For about 6 months, I slept on an aerobed, and it was fine. I was ready to sleep on the floor, but my mom insisted on buying me at least that.
Then my gf came to visit and promptly spent $400 on a foam mattress that I promptly put on the floor. She expected me to buy something called a "frame" for it. I said, screw that, its another $200-400. And then there's something mysterious called a "box spring..."
And let's not get started on the doilies and throw pillows and crap women put on beds for no reason. What's a throw pillow for? Why do you need 700 of them? Do they remind you of your dolls as a child?
I know, I sound like some comedian now. "What's the deal with airline food...?"
Reminds me of the Family Guy clip:
"Where's your beyond section?"
"Right over there."
(Falls into abyss)
"Wh---ooooooooooooooooooooooooooo. Oh, there's the towels."
Good luck with finding ammunition. Between all the illegal ammo purchases going to Mexico, municipal police departments militarizing their departments, and the average joe who's stocking up in expectation of an Obama anti-gun crackdown, it's getting pretty hard to find run of the mill ammo out there.
Yeah, I know that was a T.I.C. comment on your part, but it's pretty annoying to see one of the very few consumer products that's actually a constitutionally guaranteed right to possess disappearing.
What kind of ammo do you recommend?
cato-999 pretty much covers the spectrum for personal use. For trading purposes, if you foresee a decline in the utility of cash, I'd suggest 9mm and whatever rifle ammo hunters in your area prefer.
When it comes to guns I want to get a Kimber 1911. This is partly because my friend has a beautiful one and partly because I have a dirty, secret, love of the show Nip/Tuck.
On a reasonably related note, the mattress industry in Europe is incredibly different from the US. Mattresses come rolled in a tube, are 35 inches wide (you want a wider bed, you buy 2) and are like 3-5 inches thick. No box spring, just some wood slats to put the mattress (ie a glorified foam pad) on top of.
If you have an old mattress that is wearing out but not gone yet, and you don't want to buy a new one, try getting memory foam to put on top. It's much cheaper and works quite well.
"Still, once traditional recession-proof stalwarts like alcohol and mattresses start to slip, what's left for your counter-cyclical cash stash?"
Netflix
"Chiropractor recommends we replace ours every five years because we both have serious back issues. And while mattresses don't "break," they do "break down."
True enough, but the point is that if yours starts to become uncomfortable, you don't have to buy a new one this week. You could wait a few months to see where the economy heads, or buy a mattress pad to tide you over for a while. If your fridge's compressor gets fried, you need an expensive repair or a new fridge.
The point is that industries which make goods that aren't binary "works/doesn't work" items are in trouble as people become willing to settle for lower quality at a lower cost.
I mean, $1,600 for a large pillow?
Considering that I just paid $160 for a normal-sized pillow, $1,600 for a mattress sounds like a deal.
Still, once traditional recession-proof stalwarts like alcohol and mattresses start to slip, what's left for your counter-cyclical cash stash?
That's a damn good question, one that I've been trying to answer myself. With banks on the ropes, the feds paying near zero interest, and the traditional havens like cigs and booze losing money, I'm starting to wonder if I should prop up my saggy mattress with cash.
Peter,
The point is that industries which make goods that aren't binary "works/doesn't work" items are in trouble as people become willing to settle for lower quality at a lower cost.
Well, yes, but you're ruining all the fun of those who (like me) think "I do SO need a new mattress," and want to talk about it.
The problem you're talking about is real. If my mattress were really too annoying to use at all, there is always the floor, which doesn't sag or creak (yet). There are a lot of expenses that would come earlier if I were really up against the wall. That is not a good thing if selling mattresses is your business.
Everybody knows that 9mm is useless against the meth-addled biker hordes which will soon dominate our Mad Max dystopia. 9mm is gonna devalue faster than Citi stock. I'm getting in a semi full of tried and true Browning .50s, and 50 boxcars of ammo next week.
and 30-.06 or .308 for the rifle.
7.62x54R used to be cheaper in bulk... and I'm sure the Mosin will survive long burials much better than anything semi-auto :-)
All these ammunition suggestions are optimistically assuming you won't have to end up handloading black powder and lead balls.
Buy a flintlock just to be sure...
doctorpat: that's why you should buy a lot of it... flintlock is good for the next generation though.
"Obviously written by someone young, healthy, and with a good back."
...as I recall, those three things can lead to excessive mattress wear and tear.....
" ...assuming you won't have to end up handloading black powder..."
Maybe we ought to just invest whatever is left of our 401K's in sulphur and bat guano, then.
Ammunition is, in fact, continuing to skyrocket. 7.62x39, 5.56x45, 9mm, and .45ACP are of course the obvious places to invest.
Everybody knows that 9mm is useless against the meth-addled biker hordes which will soon dominate our Mad Max dystopia. 9mm is gonna devalue faster than Citi stock.
Heh heh. That's why you buy hydroshock ammo instead of ball. Guaranteed to drop that meth-addled biker faster than a handful of sand on a curved road.
cato-999: there ought to be a solid business proposition in taking over a major cave with a mosquito-infested swamp nearby...
Ammo:
Feed your AK Wolf if you can find it, it's what it was made for. For those of you with prissy silk-panty-wearing guns like AR-15's, stick to WWB from Wallyworld if you can find it. The red gunk will jam you up.
Reloading is nice in theory but nobody can get primers nowadays. Also, Kimbers are fine but you don't really need to spend that much.
If you don't know what I'm talking about, it's too late for you to learn anyway.
Heh. What you really want is one of those nice .50 Desert Eagles. Though you really don't want to be running unjacketed lead through it. Or perhaps the Contender with Hot Shot attachment. Sure, it's only a single shot piece. But it's deadly accurate, and if you're worried about conserving ammo . . . I understand the G2 frame is pretty sweet.
Simmons is ALWAYS going bankrupt.
I know, I tried to get a warranty thing done a while back and they wouldn't honor it because they were in bankruptcy. That was like ten years ago.
"All these ammunition suggestions are optimistically assuming you won't have to end up handloading black powder and lead balls."
Black powder and alcohol,
When the states and the cities fall,
When your back is against the wall;
Black powder and alcohol.
(HT: Leslie Fish)
@zic Its not the mattress that's your problem. Its the fact that you take medical advice from a chiropractor.
What kind of ammo do you recommend?
The kind that fits in your gun.
Ammo and can goods are only short term stocks. Eventually, they'll run out or be confiscated. Better to stock up on seeds and canning jars. As well as, non-gun skills for hunting and self defense.
"Canned goods and ammunition are looking better every day. "
Being that imitation is the sincerest form of flattery, I'm flattered. Please note (as Megan neglected to) that this was precisely my investment advice a month ago when the conventional wisdom was that the bottom was just beneath our feet.
Buying black powder is for wimps. Real men only need a coffee grinder, scale, sulfur, charcoal and saltpeter.
.38 shells are handy because they also work in a .357 .
rimmed .45 ammo and a hacksaw turn a single-shot .410 into a rifle.
I also plan on getting a good Martin bow and a fletching kit for when the primers run out.
how is ammo an investment? is there a thriving resale market?
simmons makes really good mattresses, my wife used to have back problems before we got a beautyrest extra firm with pillow-top
i guess when you're overleveraged with debt, even a small downturn can put you over the edge
I have been trying to buy 100 rounds of .380 to break in an old pistol that I have never used very much. I cannot find it. Even bird shot in 12 gauge is tough to get.
I don't know if the fear is confiscation or economic riot but some fear is driving ammunition and gun sales.
But mattresses don't break....
They do if you use them correctly.
Another reason to pity poor Petey.
My wife and I have broken mattresses and bed-frames both. Maybe you and Peter aren't doing it right.
I love my 7mm mag rifle, but distopia firearms should be chambered .223, 9mm and 12 gauge.
Simmons being in trouble is not a surprise, they have some issues with management ethics and abilities, especially on the financial side. One of their key guys was one of the least trustworthy slimeballs I ever worked with.
On further reflection, "not doing it right" isn't what I meant. Any mattress should be able to withstand even the most enthusiastic romp now and then.
If you want to break a bed, the key is frequency and stick-to-it-iveness. In other words, I have no idea whether or not you and Peter are doing it right; probably you are, or you wouldn't say things like "I'm in love with Peter Suderman." That probably means you're doing it frequently enough too; and good for the both of you. I'm a big believer in having a lot of sex with someone you love!
Now you just need to make a few trips around the sun, in the same bed, doing whatever it is you're doing. Here's to the bed giving up up before you and Peter do!
A good bed and good (read: comfortable and durable, not necessarily more stylish) shoes are absolutely, positively well worth spending money on. High quality sleep and back health are priceless.
Actually it's not at all surprising the matress business should be in trouble. IIRC there are only two manufacturers of the springs in matresses in the entire U.S. Furthermore they don't make a very wide range of different types. The only difference between most mattresses is the type of cloth they put on the outside of them, and the price. In blind testing most people cannot tell the difference between cheap and expensive mattresses - of course some are softer or harder, but this has no relation to their price. Matress sales are the classic hard sell, financing, blowout sale crap that give sales people a bad name. If people are being economical in their mattress shopping, they won't be able to sell many of the wildly overpriced 'luxury' models and the matress companies will loose their a**es since they depend on the public being to dumb to care or notice the difference between the cheap and expensive matresses.
This does not apply to certain high end matresses - those made with inflatable air cells in them, or that can contour with electric motors for people with severe back problems, U.S. sold matresses imported from Europe, etc. However these are a very small % of the industries total sales.