Megan McArdle

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Unemployment Continues Its Upward March

01 Apr 2009 09:34 am

ADP payroll figures came in at 729,000 total nonfarm jobs lost, worse than expected.  This doesn't necessarily mean that the recovery hasn't started--unemployment is a lagging indicator.  But the market sure doesn't like it.

Comments (4)

But the market sure doesn't like it.

Seems like the market is up 22 points....

The market probably is expecting a Fed rate cut. [/sarcasm]

The market clawed back because of the increasing housing sales. This is not very bright, of course, but what can one say for the delusion of crowds...

ADP payroll figures came in at 729,000 total nonfarm jobs lost, worse than expected. This doesn't necessarily mean that the recovery hasn't started--unemployment is a lagging indicator.

Megan: by "recovery" you mean GDP is no longer shrinking, right? Do you honestly think there's any chance the economy has resumed even tepid growth as of now? I rather expect GDP to once again be growing (fitfully and slowly) at some point later in the year, but I'd be shocked if, at some point in the future, we learn that GDP shrinkage ended by March of 2009. September or October, maybe.

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