The lessons for me? Gay marriage is tough to pass in most states, and both parties should rethink the primary challenges, which don't seem to be working out for anyone. Robocalling polls seem to be disturbingly effective. Even Mike Bloomberg can get spanked (lightly) by anti-incumbent fever.I think there are four obvious lessons to draw from tonight's election returns:
1. For Conservative Republicans: The America people reject Barack Obama and obviously want true conservative leadership. The Governorships of two states have switched to the "R" category, showing a grassroots conservative movement that is alive and well.
2. For Moderate Republicans: The American people obviously want old-fashioned economic conservatives who are moderate on social issues. McDonnell in Virginia and Christie in New Jersey won by downplaying social issues; Hoffman in New York-23 lost because he was too extreme.
3. For Moderate Democrats: The party out of power usually does well in off-year elections like this, and this year was no exception. But obviously there is no sign of any substantial shift in public opinion from the election of 2008.
4. For Liberal Democrats: NY-23 was the race to watch this year, given that right-wing extremists like Palin and Beck threw all their support behind Hoffman. But the district voters rejected the right-wing candidate, sending a Democrat to Congress for the first time in one hundred years. Obviously this shows that the American people reject right-wing extremism.
Obviously.
« Link Farm: Special Election Edition | Main | Knowledge is Power » Lessons Learned from Last Night04 Nov 2009 07:47 am
What to say about last night's results? As one commentator in my twitter feed noted, there's enough here for everyone to spin. Or as Orin Kerr put it:
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Ah ah. Well, what would become of us without a bit of wishful thinking? But the fact is those narratives aren't equally plausible. Hate to say it, but the moderate Republican version seems to fit yesterday's events better.
Here's hoping GOP leaders realize that Limbaugh, Beck, Malkin & Co. may galvanize a lot of people (who vote Republican anyway), but turn off and annoy far more people.
These ranting loudmouths simply can't deliver votes. If the first victory of a Democrat in over a century doesn't send a message, nothing will.
Here in NJ, we heard 3 messages:
Chris Christie and Bush are friends! Corzine and Obama are friends! Vote Corzine.
The bureaucrats in Trenton raised your taxes. Vote Christie.
NJ Democrats are wildly corrupt. Christie put a bunch of them in jail. Vote Christie.
I think the main lesson to be learned is that even a deep blue state like NJ doesn't like high taxes to fund corruption. I.e., the reps should position themselves as corruption fighting good-government types, and the dems should clean up their own house.
Hoffman lost (barely) even though he has yellow gross teeth and is kind of a weirdo.
And yet ... he almost won despite these severe handicaps.
That's the lesson. yellow-toothed weirdo can almost beat a Democrat.
What are you, 8?
Anyway, the Democrats have been losing that particular election since the Civil War, so it's quite likely that uglier Republicans than Hoffman carried the election before.
What are you 7?
The Republican Party spent $900,000 for the Democrat-In-Sheep's-Clothing Scuzzyfava and yet this yellow-toothed freak almost pulled out a third-party win despite all the shenanigans going on in this one.
Barack Obama's presidency just ended.
Buh bye.
The real question on a economic blog should be: What does it mean for Goldman Sachs when their hand-picked princes are being kneecapped by mere voters.
How will Goldman control everything now that the voters are onto them?
The lesson I learned last night is that "Tabatha's Salon Takeover" is among my new favorite shows. Not an adequate replacement for my dearly departed "Blow Out," but getting there.
This was the narrative from RedState last night.
I'm still trying to wrap my head around the logic of that statement.
I don't think anyone can make any legitimate narrative with a sample size of three (VA, NJ, NY-23 being the only races to really capture widespread attention). Flip a coin three times and the most likely outcome is to get two of one side, and one of the other. Exactly what we got.
I'm finding NY-23 the most interesting as I want to see how this reverberates through the party to other races, like Crist in Florida.
And Megan, can I ask, what did you mean by this?
"both parties should rethink the primary challenges" What primary challenges are you referring to? I didn't follow VA or NJ, but I don't think there were primaries in either state, and in NY-23, Hoffman ran as a third party candidate. If that was a reference to something old like Leiberman-Lamont, CT started with Senator Lieberman, and they ended up with Senator Lieberman.
"I didn't follow VA or NJ, but I don't think there were primaries in either state, ..."
In VA, Deeds was the winner of a hard-fought primary, while McDonnell and the Lt.Governor decided which of them would run this year and which in 2013.
Lieberman is taking out his ire at the Lamont challenge on the health care bill; Specter switched parties, etc. The attempt to discipline the party leaders with primary challenges doesn't seem awfully effective on either side.
"The race has now been called for Democrat Bill Owens. This is a huge win for conservatives. I'm still trying to wrap my head around the logic of that statement."
That's because you don't follow politics closely enough to see the logic. You see, NY23 was about ridding the Republican Party of "moderates" - also known as RINOs - also known as Secret Democrats.
We never cared if Hoffman won, as long as the Secret Democrat in the race was exposed. And she was. And she proved that she was a Secret Democrat by endorsing Owens.
It was a mole hunt all along. We now have a nice long list of names of traitors.
The race itself was always meaningless. After all, what's one more Democrat in a House that can't even pass a simple health care tax increase?
in the big picture: candidates matter.
Last year Dems had a huge tailwind due to a very unpopular Rep president and a charismatic Dem candidate delivering sugar coated platitudes.
This year, the wind shifted so there was a bit of breeze behind Republican candidates.
In NJ, it was enough for a mediocre Rep candidate to convincingly beat an unpopular NJ incumbent in a deep blue state.
In VA, a good Rep candidate trounced a mediocre Dem.
In NY, the local GOP botched the selection process, resulting in an odd affair where the Rep candidate was left of the Dem candidate ---empowering a third party candidate. I guess Dems can celebrate that one all they want -- but I suspect Owens joins the Blue Dogs and could very well face a very difficult straightforward race in a year.
I tend to agree with this analysis. In Virginia, Deeds was an aggressively underwhelming candidate. In NJ, Corzine was corrupt and unpopular. And NY-23 was just weird - it's my sense that the local v. outsider dynamic was more important than the liberal v. conservative one.
Why Hoffman lost:
I don't think it was because he was "too conservative". Hoffman did an interview a few days ago where he appeared totally ignorant about local issues. He was not charming enough or glib enough to paper over that deficit. I think he did badly enough in the interview, recently enough, that it tipped the race just enough away from him.
I've heard the same thing.
Have you noticed how few people on the "news" channels actually report the news anymore? Everyone claims to be "commentators" now, and they use that as their shield whenever they are caught saying something that's clearly biased or stupid.
"I'm not here to report the hard news; I'm here to have an opinion and to voice that opinion..."
The trouble, of course, is that nobody is left to report the facts. Based on what I saw of Hoffman, he came across as a complete dud of a candidate. He appeared to be as mentally agile as a koala, and marginally less energetic.
Would I have chosen him over Cozzafava? Absolutely - but, once again, it's a "less of two evils" scenario. And I'm glad that the RNC were spanked for putting the voters into that position again.
To some degree NY 23 was a micro example of last years race, with a very different outcome. McCain was a terrible candidate and a great many republicans abandoned the party because of it. The data for this is all over the place.
When the RNC tried the same tactic, only moreso, we see open revolt. I think that's a pretty serious lesson for the RNC to remember.
Smerconish this morning mockingly stated "for those of you who chose no loaf over half a loaf, you got your wish..."
What he doesn't realize is that conservatives won't be lied to. Cozzafava wasn't "half a republican." She was a liberal, by any reasonable measure, fraudulently pitched as a moderate.
When you blend this with the NJ and VA results, it's pretty clear that (duh) conservatism is hardly dead. It was foolish to ever claim that it was.
With the right candidates in 2010 and 2012, conservatism will enjoy a renaissance. With the wrong candidates it won't.
Again, "duh."
"Have you noticed how few people on the "news" channels actually report the news anymore? Everyone claims to be "commentators" now...
The trouble, of course, is that nobody is left to report the facts."
This is PRECISELY the problem with the media. No one does any actual REPORTING any more, and when they do bother to include facts, they don't even have the fucking intelligence to spend a couple of minutes, you know, VERIFYING THEM!!!! Last week there were punches thrown in the Washington Post newsroom, a fight triggered in part by sloppy work on a 'charticle' of historical incidents of vital documents being leaked to the public. One of the incidents mentioned was R.E. Lee's "Lost Order" during the Antietam campaign (where the Confederate battle plan, wrapped around some cigars, was found in a field in Maryland). Apparently, the genius reporters at the Post wrote that the order was found in Virginia. I mean, would it kill them to Google it? It took me less than 30 seconds to find out all anyone would need to know for such a piece. Yet, that was too much to ask for the Posties.
"Robocalling polls seem to be disturbingly effective."
Why "disturbingly" — because robots are taking another set of jobs away from carbon-based Americans?
When incumbents are tossed out by large margins, it means that people are paying close attention, and the advantage of incumbents in raising money has been negated by public dissatisfaction. Incumbents usually lose narrowly. At the side, Hoffman couldn't pose for American Gothic, because he didn't live in the district. Basic rules still apply, even when the voters are stirred.
It was a dark day for our country, friends.
Virginia, a state that only last year appeared ready to join the ranks of the modern & civilized with their overwhleming support of Demoratic candidates has decided to turn the clock back several hundred years by electing the Torquemada-esque McDonnell.
As the Washington Post tirelessly pointed out, under McDonnell we are likely to see women lose the right to vote and work w/o the assent of a male family member. Sure, this will be culturally sensitive to our Muslim brethren, but it is still a giant step back into the middle-ages in a place that we had thought was boldly facing the future.
In NJ, Obama's steadfast partner Corzine was defeated. Though we must carefully analyze the data to be sure, one can only assume that this reflects deep-seated racism on the part of New Jersey voters who were so apalled that a black man is president and would have the temerity to visit their state to campaign with their strong progressive governor. For shame, New Jerseyians, for shame.
Finally, the dark heart of American bigotry once again destroyed the bright glittery hope for a braver future as the evil haters of Maine let it become the 31st state to vote down full equality for gays. How can the people of America continue to support the continuation of the evil, apartheid-like regime that the horribly repressed gay-Americans suffer under? I blame the Mormons, again. Regardless, until gay people are treated exactly like straight people, we will be unable to bravely move forward to confront the next long-simmering outrage to elite moral sensibilities.
The only bright spot in a sea of darkness was when Owens bravely confronted the powerful Palin-Beck conspiracrats and faced them down.
It's small consolation but we must take succor where we may, my friends. Don't give up, my progressive compadres! We'll wrest control of this country from the evil conservatives who inhabit it yet!
Lol! Another one hit out of the park.
The key race from last night was Virginia. Every Democrat running statewide got trounced. And in New Jersey, Christie beat Corzine pretty handily, even with a decent showing from a third party candidate. Democrats won't be able to run against Bush any longer- that is the real message from last night. Democrats only hope for next November is for the economy to be humming again with unemployment seen to be dropping quickly through 8% on it way to 6% or less, otherwise it is going to be bloodbath.
Oh, and this is the final nail in the coffins of Obamacare and CapNTrade.
"Oh, and this is the final nail in the coffins of Obamacare and CapNTrade."
Not sure about health care, because too much political capital has been invested to let it die completely--look for a measure to pass that is even more watered-down than the Senate Finance bill. But cap n' trade is finished, certainly for this year, and if the economy and unemployment are still problematic by the spring, then next year as well.
I don't think anything watered-down has an increased chance of passing. One of the reasons that the public option was resurrected was that it was the only way to keep far left congresspersons from voting no on a bill. The divides in the Democrat Party were too deep to begin with, and last night's elections demonstrate why that divide exists. Pelosi and Obama have been either been pretending it wasn't there, or they were simply too insulated and ignorant to see it. Reid knows the problems, but I get the sense he feels trapped by the stupidity of the other two leaders.
I would keep my eyes on Reid more than anyone else. His ass is on the line next November, unlike Pelosi and Obama.
If the reform bill(s) don't pass this fall, it won't happen in an election year, either.
"Not sure about health care, because too much political capital has been invested to let it die completely ..."
Do you not read the papers?
Washington Post yesterday announced Reid was delaying the health tax increase bill. Won't happen this year.
AP yesterday announced that Pelosi doesn't have the votes in the House to pass the House version of health tax increase.
No vote will occur. ObamaCareTax died a slow silent death, never to be mentioned again in polite company. The wake was held yesterday in New Jersey.
The burial was in Virginia.
I imagine the Democrats will continue to deny the veracity of Rasmussen's numbers. The concept of a non-liberal body politic is to shocking for their minds to digest. I predict they will stay the course on social democracy and will get it good and hard in 2010.
I saw the election as an affirmation that the status quo is a powerful essence which once again came to bat ready and able.
I have a lot of relatives in NY-23. They are all Republicans, and that affiliation has been passed down through the generations (along with Catholic church membership and a tendency to dress like the pictures in the LL Bean catalog).
And few things get them angrier than how the Republican party has been taken over by "the Texans." This is shorthand for the southern-oriented, Protestant-oriented religious right. They hate that crowd more than any Democrat could. Betrayal by your own side always hurts the worst.
Some of them have even started voting for Democrats as a protest. I don't think they like doing it, but it's the only thing they can think of to smack their party back to its senses. And to its historical roots.
So the question for me is, can the Republicans accomodate a northern wing that is middling conservative, but very different in outlook from its southern wing? Or will they abandon that part of the political spectrum to conservative Democrats? Of course, one could ask the same about the Democrats and their conservative wing as well.
Shorthand for all this, I think, is whether individual representatives will be allowed to represent their own constituencies, or whether they will be expected to fall in behind national ideological leaders who parachute in during key races. As someone who doesn't fit neatly into any national ideological camp, I hope for the former.
Interesting.
On the one hand, imposing a national template on local candidates leads to bad outcomes and is opposed to what should be Republican ideas about federalism and localism. On the other hand, there has to be some kind of commonality that justifies having a national political affiliation in the first place. Balancing the two calls for judgment and tact, two qualities totally alien to our GOP political classes.
Maybe the lesson from last night is that our wonderful media gets things REALLY wrong and it becomes commonly accepted.
Everyone has been told that NY23 has been represented by a Republican since the Civil War. An actual listing of congressmen from that district tells something entirely different. It seems that not one "professional journalist" ever verified this. Here's the list just since 1903, including times the seat was vacant for various reasons.
George N. Southwick
Republican
March 4, 1903 –
March 3, 1911
Henry S. De Forest
Republican
March 4, 1911 –
March 3, 1913
Joseph A. Goulden
Democratic
March 4, 1913 –
May 3, 1915
Vacant
May 3, 1915 –
November 2, 1915
William S. Bennet
Republican
November 2, 1915 –
March 3, 1917
Daniel C. Oliver
Democratic
March 4, 1917 –
March 4, 1919
Richard F. McKiniry
Democratic
March 4, 1919 –
March 4, 1921
Albert B. Rossdale
Republican
March 4, 1921 –
March 3, 1923
Frank A. Oliver
Democratic
March 4, 1923 –
June 18, 1934
Vacant
June 18, 1934 –
January 3, 1935
Charles A. Buckley
Democratic
January 3, 1935 –
January 3, 1945
Walter A. Lynch
Democratic
January 3, 1945 –
January 3, 1951
Sidney A. Fine
Democratic
January 3, 1951 –
January 3, 1953
Isidore Dollinger
Democratic
January 3, 1953 –
December 31, 1959
Vacant
January 1, 1960 –
March 7, 1960
Jacob H. Gilbert
Democratic
March 8, 1960 –
January 3, 1963
Charles A. Buckley
Democratic
January 3, 1963 –
January 3, 1965
Jonathan B. Bingham
Democratic
January 3, 1965 –
January 3, 1973
Peter A. Peyser
Republican
January 3, 1973 –
January 3, 1977
Bruce F. Caputo
Republican
January 3, 1977 –
January 3, 1979
Peter A. Peyser
Democratic
January 3, 1979 –
January 3, 1983
Samuel S. Stratton
Democratic
January 3, 1983 –
January 3, 1989
Schenectady
Michael R. McNulty
Democratic
January 3, 1989 –
January 3, 1993
Green Island
Sherwood Boehlert
Republican
January 3, 1993 –
January 3, 2003
New Hartford
John M. McHugh
Republican
January 3, 2003 –
September 21, 2009
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/New_York's_23rd_congressional_district#1843_-_present:_one_seat
BIG GOOF on my part.
I google that list and sent it to megan. She corrected me that the district used to be part of NYC and they changed everything around. Wikipedia does say that it used to be part on NYC.
The GOP establishment comes out as the big winner. They get two big statewide wins and a cautionary tale for the base in NY-23, which they can reasonably expect to retake next year.
The Tea Partiers get a mixed bag. VA nd NJ are nice but they flamed out in NY-23.
For Dems... ouch. Obama's team was running Corzine's campaign and he still lost decisively, while VA took a 30-pt swing. NY-23 is a nice consolation prize though.
Doug Hoffman lost because the doofi in the local Republican establishment backed a donkey in elephant's clothing with almost $1M, complete with attack ads aimed at Hoffman. Had the Republican party backed Hoffman from the beginning (or kidnapped Scozzafava and held her for a couple of days incommunicado after she suspended her campaign), he would have would have won. Ditto, had her name not still been on the ballot (for those who didn't know she'd bailed).
Hoffman is not "too extreme". The Republican leadership in NY23 are idiots.
The problem is partly one of language. Dede was repeatedly called a 'moderate Republican'. She was nothing of the sort, she was a liberal Republican. The GOP base can tolerate, and sometimes embrace, moderates. Liberals are not compatiable with the GOP base, though, and increasingly the media and GOP upper circles have been trying to redefine 'moderate' to mean 'liberal'.