A mystery for the ages
[Daniel Drezner]
Ten weeks ago I predicted all of Paul Krugman's op-ed essays for 2008 by using the following simple formula:
We’re heading into a recession....
The Republicans are blinkered.
Everything is Alan Greenspan’s fault.
I luuuuuv John Edwards.
Barack Obama is not a real progressive.
By my count,
today's op-ed has at least three of the five tropes.
Krugman's defenders might point out that he's actually right about a few of these points -- though I'm willing to bet that there's dissensus about which ones he's been right about.
What's puzzling to me, however, is that this tactic of redundant repitition renders Krugman unbelievably boring. After the 50th op-ed hammering home the same point, Krugman winds up alienating even his natural allies.
This is a genuine problem. Looking back over the past decade, Krugman has been right about some big issues (Bush's tax cuts, Iraq) even if his reasoning has not always been spot-on. During this campaign, however, his rhetorical effectiveness has been on the decline -- which means that even if he has a valid point, it gets lost in the ether.
In contrast, the campaign seems to have rejuvenated the minds of David Brooks and even, Lord help me, Maureen Dowd. I don't necessarily agree with them all that much either... but there's a curiosity of mind at work -- a willingness to play with ideas and themes -- that seems completely shut down in Krugman's work.
Why is this?
Family . . . who needs 'em?
A few days ago, I asked what it would mean to live in a culture with no family. Gabriel Rossman offers this fascinating analysis:
Who needs brothers, sisters, brother-in-laws, sister-in-laws, nieces, nephews, and cousins? It’s not as if we can’t substitute non-familial friends. There are two problems with this. First, family ties are unique in that they can’t be replaced (you can stop talking to your brother, but you can’t recruit a new brother to replace him) and this makes them very important in low trust societies. It could be that a lack of relatives could drive people to trust strangers of necessity and you’ll have a decline in corruption, or it could be that they just won’t trust anyone, transaction costs will go way up, and nothing will get done. Second, in the United States non-kin strong ties are rapidly disappearing as people are basically discussing serious issues only with their spouses and parents. While I’ve seen no evidence that this change is also occurring in low fertility countries, if it is then the “mass society” nightmare scenario of atomized individuals wasn’t wrong, just ahead of its time.
School or sleep?
All throughout high school,I was unable to sleep before midnight or one, which was a little hard on me, because I had to leave for school before 7 am. I became rather too adept at dressing in my elevator. In college, I became a nocturnal creature, going to bed around 3 or 4 and rising around noon.
Apparently, this is natural (I now get up between 7 and 8 without an alarm); teenagers are simply naturally nocturnal for some strange reason. Matt Zeitlin wonders why we don't use this information to schedule school:
In middle school and the high school I would have gone to, class starts at 8:05, while at the school I attend now, classes start at 8:35, and if you’re lucky, you can a first period free at least once a week. Speaking as a sleep starved teenager, those extra 30 minutes in the morning are incredibly valuable. How any school could ever start before 8:00 is simply astounding and probably proof that teachers or some other force has become too powerful in the district, because starting times that absurdly early are never in the interest of the students.
I've often wondered about this in New York City, where staggering school schedules to start at, say 10 would not only let teenagers sleep, but also smooth the usage of the trains rather than crowding kids on at the same time as rush hour commuters. I initially theorized that they were matching the schedules to parents, but by middle school, this isn't a consideration in New York . . . and I doubt much of one in the suburbs either, where I presume most kids take the schoolbus or drive. So how come school starts so early?
Question of the day
I've got a nasty cold, which has been retreating and resurging for the better part of three weeks. Today is a resurgent day, prompting me to wonder: why do you feel cold when you're running a slight fever? I realize there's a stronger contrast between your internal temperature and the outside, but I'd be surprised to find that I'm running as much as two degrees of fever, so the contrast can't have increased that much. Can readers comment?
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