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September 24, 2007

Bundle up

Everyone I know hates cable bundling. Why should they pay for the soap opera channel when they never watch it?

They are envisioning, of course, paying something like 1/100th of their current cable bill for each channel. But this is not right, for a number of reasons. If you are now willing to pay $45 to get the five channels you actually watch, you will be willing to pay $45 for those five channels, which the cable company knows; they will price the most popular channels accordingly. There's no reason they have to lower their prices to make it cheaper for you to buy cable. Apple has succeeded in forcing 99 cent downloads of unbundled songs, but that's because Apple has market power that it is using to sell expensive iPods. I see no similar market force in cable. Moreover, the transaction costs of maintaining millions of individual channel lists might well push up the overall cost of cable.

CoyoteBlog offers another reason that unbundling won't work the way people hope:

I see that the drive to force cable companies to offer their basic cable package a la carte rather than as a bundle is gaining steam again. This is the dumbest regulatory step imaginable, and will reduce the number of interesting niche choices on cable.

For some reason, it is terribly hard to convince people of this. In fact, supporters of this regulation argue just the opposite. They argue that this is a better plan for folks who only are passionate about, say, the kite-flying channel, because they only have to pay for the channel they want rather than all of basic cable to get this one station. This is a fine theory, but it only works if the kite-flying channel still exists in the new regulatory regime. Let me explain.

Clearly the kite-flying channel serves a niche market. Not that many people are going to be interested enough in kite flying alone to pay $5 a month for it. But despite this niche status, it may well make sense for the cable companies to add it to their basic package. Remember that the basic package already attracts the heart of the market. Between CNN and ESPN and the Discovery Channel and the History Channel, etc., the majority of the market already sees enough value in the package to sign on.

Let's say the cable company wants to add a channel to their basic package, and they have two choices. They have a sports channel they could add (let's say there are already 5 other sports channels in the package) or they can add the Kite-flying channel. Far more people are likely to watch the sports channel than the kite flying channel. But in the current pricing regime, this is not necessarily what matters to the cable company. Their concern is to get more people to sign up for the cable TV. And it may be that everyone who could possibly be attracted to sports is already a subscriber, and a sixth sports channel would not attract any new subscribers. It is entirely possible that a niche channel like the kite-flying channel will actually bring more incremental subscribers to the basic package than another sports channel, and thus be a more attractive addition to the basic package for the cable company.

But now let's look at the situation if a la carte pricing was required. In this situation, individual channels don't support the package, but must stand on their own and earn revenue. The cable company's decision-making on adding an extra channel is going to be very different in this world. In this scenario, they are going to compare the new sports channel with the Kite-flying channel based on how many people will sign up and pay for that standalone channel. And in this case, a sixth (and probably seventh and eighth and ninth) sports channel is going to look better to them than the Kite-flying channel. Niche channels that were added to bring greater reach to their basic cable package are going to be dropped in favor of more of what appeals to the majority.

The real problem with cable pricing is not bundling; it's that cable companies have cozy local monopolies because of a combination of political influence, and the natural reluctance of municipalities to tearing their streets up.

September 7, 2007

Big fish, but not too big

Matt wonders why Verizon, which has by far the best network coverage, doesn't also have the best phones, thereby totally killing the competition:


No link here, just the observation that it seems to me that Verizon is working with a strangely unambitious business strategy. Basically, they've got themselves the best cell phone network out there. Their calculation seems to me that, given the superiority of their network, they ought to put forward a product that's inferior in other respects, secure in the knowledge that their network will always give them a healthy market share. A much better strategy, it seems to me, would be to offer the best network and the best phones and just drive everyone out of business. They seem to have reconciled themselves to trying to be like Toyota in the auto industry when they could achieve Microsoft-esque levels of domination if they wanted to.

My tenative explanation is that Verizon doesn't want Microsoft-esque levels of market domination. Coming out of a heavily regulated industry, Verizon probably has justifiable fears that if it really dominated the wireless market, regulators would descend like a ton of those old brick phones you see lying around people's junk drawers. Verizon wants to be the most powerful player in a decently competitive marketplace, which is what it is.

This still won't keep me from buying an iPhone when my contract is up next year, though. . .

August 30, 2007

Talking telecoms

Peter Suderman questions whether Japan's broadband is really 8-to-30 times faster than ours.

The article he references is a little misleading; it compares the best broadband available in Japan (100 mbps) to the average in America. But America has fiber to the home to, and the comparison is considerably less invidious; we just have less of it, because it takes longer to build out a fiber network for a country with an average population density of less than 3000 people per square mile, than it does in a country where the population density hovers around 12,500 people per square mile. The article spends a lot of time focused on telecoms policy, when awesome telecoms policy is not going to give us better geographical conditions, or a newer copper network.

That said, better telecoms policy would give us competition for services, something sorely needed. Forget high speed internet; how come the government protects Comcast's right to be my sole provider of surly, desultory cable service? These days, it seems like the only hope is that the cable companies and the baby bells will meet on some windy plain, like Mothra and Godzilla, and destroy each other.

Update I grabbed the density figures off an internet site, and either read them wrong, or used a bad site. Commenter Internet Ronin says:


For the record, according to the United Nations, the correct numbers for population density for the United States and Japan in 2005: 31 people per square kilometer in the United States and 343 people per square kilometer in Japan. Japan ranks #30 out of 230 nations/territories while the United States ranks #172.

That doesn't change the point, of course; in fact, it rather augments it. But accuracy counts.


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